2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 10 stolen base sleepers in Rotisserie and categories leagues
Stolen bases is the most sought-after category in 2020, so can you expect to find any help there late?
By
Scott White
•
1 min read
"Sleeper stolen base sources" is already a well-mined topic in Fantasy Baseball circles. That's especially true right now, with so few players contributing them and in such small quantities.
The conventional wisdom says it's a category to fill early, particularly if you're unwilling to take significant losses in other categories (and given how bountiful those other categories are, you can't afford to get too sidetracked with any of your lineup spots).
So the kind of players you might target late for stolen base help are the kind with the potential for like 20 steals over a full season. There are a couple of exceptions, but generally speaking, you won't get big production in that category late. It's more about supplementing an early-round shortcoming.
My standard for a "sleeper" in these one-category sleepers columns has been an ADP of 160 or later, according to FantasyPros, and I've stuck to it here. I didn't bother to include Mallex Smith, even though he meets the criteria, because I don't think his name is lost on anyone looking for stolen base help. It's the entire reason he's drafted.
Stolen base sleepers
We've been hearing for so long that Kyle Tucker is this big prospect putting up big numbers in the minors that I think it's easy to gloss over what specifically he brings to the table. He stole 35 bases last year between the majors and minors, and while it's not uncommon for a middle-of-the-order bat to stop running — or at least slow way down — once he reaches the majors, Tucker went 5 for 5 in just 22 games after his call-up last year. It's an early indication that he'll remain as motivated as ever to do it, among everything else he does.
| ||||||||||
Byron Buxton made some of his biggest strides as a hitter last season before the usual injury woes — a bruised wrist, a concussion, a shoulder subluxation — kicked in. But of course, he won't have as much time to get injured this year, which means his totals at year's end have a better chance of measuring up. The fact he was on pace for 25-30 steals last year before getting hurt pretty much sums it up.
| ||||||||||
Scott Kingery has become a staple for me in Rotisserie leagues because he's the last of my projected 20-20 players (or what would have been my projected 20-20 players) to go off the board — and about 50 picks later than the next-to-last, Danny Santana. But wait, you say, Kingery wasn't a 20-20 guy last year. He should play more regularly this year now that Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez are gone.
| ||||||||||
Lorenzo Cain had been a consistent source of 25-30 steals prior to last year, delivering in that range in four of the previous five seasons. I've already declared him a sleeper for batting average, pointing out that his .290 xBA last year was in line with career norms, so if it bounces back as expected, putting him on base more regularly, he'll be in a position to steal more bases as well.
| ||||||||||
This one requires a bit more imagination than the others, given Jean Segura's modest steals contribution in a full season of work last year, but it was his one and only year playing for manager Gabe Kapler, who pursued efficiency to a fault. Segura averaged 27.3 steals over the previous six seasons, never contributing fewer than 20 in a season, and will likely resume that sort of pace under the more traditional Joe Girardi.
| ||||||||||
I've said few late-rounders would be capable of more than like a 20-steals pace. Garret Hampson is one of the exceptions. He performed at more like a 30-steals pace last year, when he was an automatic out most of the time. Seven of his 15 steals came in his final 13 games, when he caught fire at the plate, which shows you how aggressively he'll go after them if he lives up to his talent level as a hitter. His home environment and the introduction of the DH to the NL both help his chances.
| ||||||||||
Though he was 24 for 28 on stolen bases last year, Kolten Wong hasn't been a reliable source of them over his six-year career, but then again, he hasn't been a reliable source of anything. He may have finally found his niche last year, drastically lowering his launch angle in the second half after once again falling short as a power hitter. The result was a .342 batting average, and if he sticks to that table-setter mentality, he'll be in a position to run more.
| ||||||||||
The 30-year-old Jon Berti doesn't profile as a major-league regular, but his versatility kept earning him starts with the Marlins last year. He's expected to fill that same super utility role this year and will have no shortage of fill-in opportunities on a rebuilding club. Between his 17-for-20 success rate in about a half season's work and a lengthy minor-league track record revealing more of the same, his proclivity for stolen bases should in no way be in question.
| ||||||||||
Wil Myers' sporadic playing time over the past two years has made him a forgotten man in Fantasy Baseball, as the ADP shows, but the Padres jettisoned two outfielders this offseason (Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot) while adding just one (Tommy Pham). Factor in the newly arrived DH opening, and Myers should have a dedicated lineup spot again. He averaged 29 homers and 24 steals as a full-timer for the Padres in 2016 and 2017.
| ||||||||||
Nick Madrigal's defining skill is contact hitting — he struck out just 16 times in his 473 at-bats last year — and that skill should propel him to the majors sooner than later (perhaps even opening day, given the White Sox's need for a second baseman). As you can see, he was pretty good as a base-stealer last year as well and would play the sort of table-setter role that would allow him to keep running in the majors. It's just a question of how much the White Sox let him.
| ||||||||||
