2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Eight No. 1 contenders for outfield with star potential
It's tougher to make the cut among the outfield elite, but here are eight value options who could deliver superstar production.
By
Chris Towers
•
1 min read
As my series looking for potential No. 1 contenders at each position for the 2020 Fantasy season moves on to the outfield, we do have to acknowledge one fact: It's very unlikely anyone here is going to crack the elite tier at this position because it represents the absolute pinnacle of the Fantasy world in 2020, You just can't put those kind of expectations on anyone.
But there are still plenty of outfielders with superstar potential once you look down the ADP ranks. I'm looking for players outside the top 25 with the chance to crack the top 10 in 2020, and there was no shortage of options. While I've focused on five players for every other position in this series — and just four for first base! — the outfield features a whopping eight, and I could have gone deeper.
Outfield tends to generate Fantasy superstars because it features the best athletes in the game along with some of the best sluggers out there — and in many cases, among the same player. This crop is mostly made up of big-time athletes with the potential to bring power and speed to the table, but we'll begin with one who could emerge as a premier hitter without stealing any bases:
No. 1 Contenders: SS
It's hard to buy what Castellanos did in his half-season with the Cubs, given what an outlier it was compared the rest of his career. However, it might not have been more legit than you think. Castellanos averaged a .380 expected wOBA from 2016 through 2018, per Statcast data, with a .294 xBA and .553 xSLG; he had a .408 wOBA with a .321 average and .646 slugging percentage after joining the Cubs. He played over his head, but it might have been closer to what we could expect out of him outside of Comerica Park than the .273 average and .462 slugging percentage he had with the Tigers. Castellanos makes a ton of loud contact, and now he's going to be playing in a tiny ballpark that should suit his all-fields power quite well. Castellanos could be capable of something like Trey Mancini's 2019, and he was the No. 30 overall player.
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It's always a little easier when a player has actually done it before, as Ozuna did when he was the No. 4 outfielder in 2017. The past two years have been tough for Ozuna, who missed out on a big free agency payday this offseason as a result. He's well situated for a big one next offseason, however, coming off arguably his most impressive season from a peripheral standpoint. He hit the ball harder than ever more often than ever, posting a career-best .382 xwOBA compared to a .336 actual mark. If you believe in the underlying numbers, Ozuna is one of the most obvious values on the board in 2020.
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Prospects are the ultimate mystery box, and Robert is one of the most intriguing out there these days. If you want to know what the upside is, he hit .328 with 32 homers and 36 steals in just 122 innings while making it all the way from High-A to Triple-A in 2019. I have questions about how much the White Sox are going to let him run, as well as how much his aggressive approach in the box may hold him back from living up to that potential in Year 1, but there's no doubting that Robert has first-round potential. This could be your last chance to draft him outside of the top 20 for a decade.
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Even in an era when everyone hits for power, Reyes stands out for just how hard he hits the ball: He was in the top 2% in the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, and in the top-6% in barrel rate. He strikes out pretty frequently, which limits some of his batting average upside, but his .264 xBA last season shows there is still some room to grow. There's 40-homer potential here, and if he cuts the strikeout rate even a little, we could be talking about a top-30 hitter.
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Tucker no longer has quite as much hype as Robert, but he's coming off his own 30-30 season in the minors, and he's less than a year older than Robert, too. There's less of a guarantee of playing time for Tucker, but I'm not sure that difference adequately accounts for the 80-pick difference between them in ADP. If Tucker can lock in an everyday role — Josh Reddick's 1-for-20 start to the spring surely isn't hurting — he also has top-20 potential overall.
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Davis dealt with a bit of a scare when he suffered a shoulder injury early in spring, but he seems to be over that, returning to the lineup in recent days. There are still questions about how much he might play, though an injury to Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes' struggles getting healthy make it more likely he'll have a regular role than it might have seemed a few weeks ago. Davis more than held his own in his first real taste of the majors, sporting elite batted-ball metrics to back it up. Davis could be a legitimate .300 hitter with 30 homers if he gets 600 plate appearances.
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And here's part two of the Scott White Special section of this column. If you listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, you know Scott can't make it through an episode without mentioning Davis and Canha, and why not? Canha was a revelation last season, shedding the label of platoon hitter by hitting .297/.418/.548 against righties. He actually fared significantly worse against lefties, though with a .219 BABIP, it's pretty easy to write that off as some bad luck. And Canha's per-game production looks even better when you account for the fact that he came off the bench in 11% of his games. Canha averaged 3.30 Fantasy points per start, better than Aaron Judge, and just south of Kris Bryant. Didn't think he'd ever be mentioned in that kind of air, did you?
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If Robert wasn't around, Adell might have more hype around him these days. He won't open the season in the Angels' lineup, but it might not be long before he gets there. They'll want to see him hit in Triple-A first — and stay healthy — but if he gets off to a hot start, it's not out of the question we see him by May. That kind of timetable wouldn't be ideal for his chances of finishing the season as an elite Fantasy option, but he's a career .298/.361/.518 hitter in his minor-league career despite being incredibly young, and 30-30 potential is in his tool bag as he develops. The Angels are pretty desperate to make a run, so if Adell proves he's ready, he'll get the call.
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So which sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kenta Maeda's huge breakout last season, and find out.
