2020 Fantasy Baseball Do-Not-Draft List: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve lead list of 15 to avoid
Running through each position in Fantasy Baseball, here are top players to avoid in drafts.
•
1 min read
Knowing who not to draft is just as important as knowing who to draft. The question is how do you figure that out? Well, there are a few ways. First, you need to know the player pool inside and out. Considering it's time to draft, I'm going to assume you have this part down. That helps with evaluating average draft position. Knowing where players are drafted is pivotal in forming your opinion for that season. For example, if you're a big fan of Matt Olson, why would you take a similar profile in Pete Alonso 3-4 rounds earlier? This is a tool you should use to decipher that Alonso is overvalued.
Two other key factors I believe are pivotal are name value and injury history. People see names like Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt and, because they were once first-round caliber players, it becomes harder to accept their decline. I'm here to tell you it's OK. Players fall off eventually, unless of course your name is David Ortiz or Nelson Cruz.
When it comes to injuries, they're not all created equally. Sometimes, injuries are freak accidents. Look at Willie Calhoun earlier in spring training who broke his jaw by getting hit in the face with a pitch. It wasn't his fault. The injuries you should pay attention to are recurring ones. If a certain player has dealt with the same core issue or lower-leg injury consistently, that should be accounted for in the valuation process.
Finally, is the production sustainable? Was it a random breakout? Do the underlying numbers support it? How realistic is it to happen again? These are the types of questions you should be asking yourself.
And those are the questions we asked ourselves on Tuesday's episode of the Fantasy Baseball TodayI podcast, as Adam Aizer, Scott White, Chris Towers and I broke down our "Do Not Draft" players for each position. We talked about why we're not buying Kris Bryant, and why Adam is avoiding Rafael Devers. You can see my full list below, and be sure to subscribe for five-day-a-week Fantasy baseball coverage.
With that being said, here is my Do Not Draft team for the 2020 season.
HITTERS
Christian Vazquez randomly broke out last season and finished as a top-five catcher in both Roto and H2H points leagues. A lot of that was due to the power — he hit 23 home runs with 72 RBI last season. Entering 2019, he had all but 10 home runs in in his first 999 plate appearances. Vazquez never posted a HR/FB rate higher than 6.8% before he posted his 16% mark last year. It sure seems like he was helped by the juiced ball and somebody who should not be drafted as a top-10 catcher in 2020.
| ||||||||||
We've talked and written a lot about Paul Goldschmidt over the past few months and rightfully so. Despite finishing as the 12th best first baseman in both Roto and H2H points last season, he's being drafted as the seventh first baseman in 2020. The warning signs are all there. His plate discipline is starting to slip and his Statcast numbers are declining. Goldschmidt also posted a .753 OPS or lower in four of six months in 2019, which is below league average. At 32 years old, it sure seems like that time is here for Goldschmidt.
| ||||||||||
You'll notice a theme with the Astros middle infielders on this list, and that is recurring injuries. For Jose Altuve, he's missed 63 games over the last two seasons due to knee and hamstring issues. As a result, we've seen his stolen bases decline from 32 back in 2017 to just six in 2019. While it may seem subtle, his plate discipline is also beginning to slip a little bit. Last season his 15% strikeout rate was a career-high while his 7.5% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. Altuve will still be productive when he's on the field, but I'd expect him to miss time, which will hurt Fantasy owners more in 2020 because of the shortened season.
| ||||||||||
I'm beginning to sound like a broken record when it comes to Kris Bryant but the truth remains: His fourt-round ADP is just too high. Truthfully, how much of a difference is there between Bryant and Josh Donaldson, who's being drafted almost 50 picks later? In fact, Donaldson finished higher than Bryant in both formats last season. There are also terrifying batted-ball numbers with Bryant that I just can't look past. His 35.8% hard contact rate was tied for 109th among hitters last season … with Jackie Bradley. Bryant's 87.4 MPH average exit velocity was also below league average. Third base is a stacked position with players who can provide similar production to Bryant drafted rounds later.
| ||||||||||
Carlos Correa is Jose Altuve's running mate and scares me even more actually. Correa has dealt with recurring issues regarding his back and core. Over the past three seasons, Correa has missed 140 games total, about 40% of the time. If that happens again in an 80-game season, you're looking at about 48 games played for Correa. He doesn't run anymore for Roto leagues but is still a productive player when on the field. He's posted a .926 OPS or better in two of the past three seasons. The question remains: how many of those games will Correa play? I'm not willing to find out.
| ||||||||||
It might sound hyperbolic but I'm beginning to think 2020 could be a lost season for Aaron Judge. Judge is going to be out there for Opening Day, but he's dealt with neck stiffness in camp, and still has that rib injury he's been dealing with since the end of last season.
| ||||||||||
Whit Merrifield was a late-bloomer in his career, and I'm not sure most realize he's 31 years old. As a player you're relying on for speed, this should be worrisome. We saw that already, because steals were more than cut in half last season compared to 2018. That's a recipe for disaster. Merrifield's sprint speed has declined three seasons in a row and he was caught stealing 10 times in 30 attempts in 2019. His OPS also dropped from .850 in the first half last year to .761 in the second half. He'll likely still provide a strong batting average because of his high line-drive rate but I do worry about the steals at his age.
| ||||||||||
Andrew Benintendi finally improved against left-handed pitching in 2019… and then got worse everywhere else. Let's start with the strikeouts. Benintendi posted a career-high 22.8% strikeout rate after posting back-to-back seasons of 17% or less. Like Merrifield, Benintendi's steals also went the wrong way. He stole 21 bases back in 2018 compared to just 10 last season. Finally, and this might not be his fault, but Benintendi hit just 13 home runs in a season with the juiced ball. Fenway Park is one of the worst venues in terms of left-handed power. Benintendi might just be a JAG.
| ||||||||||
PITCHERS
Jack Flaherty was otherworldly over his final 16 starts posting a 0.93 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, severely improving his command during this stretch. All the while, he did this with a 3.27 xFIP, 95% strand rate and a .196 BABIP. We all know it's not sustainable. The problem for me is the price you have to pay to draft Flaherty. His current ADP is 22.8. I'm not convinced he's all that much better than somebody like Charlie Morton or Lucas Giolito, who is being drafted over two rounds later. To be honest, I don't like the ADP on any of the pitchers going in that Flaherty range (Stephen Strasburg and Shane Bieber).
| ||||||||||
Last season was an awfully weird one for Blake Snell. Over his first 11 starts, Snell looked like his Cy Young self from 2018, fueled by a 3.06 ERA and a 19% swinging strike rate. Then he dealt with a broken toe and it seemed like he was rushed back. Over June and July, Snell posted a 6.18 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. He was shut down the rest of July and all of August with issues in his elbow and shoulder. Then, he needed a cortisone shot in his pitching elbow on Feb. 29 of this year! His ADP has dropped a bit to 40, but Snell feels like a ticking time bomb with all of these issues in his throwing arm.
| ||||||||||
While Trevor Bauer is one of the smartest players in baseball, for the most part it hasn't translated to production for Fantasy purposes. Outside of a stellar 2018, Bauer has had a 4.19 ERA or higher in every other season. Among pitchers with 200 or more innings pitched in 2019, Bauer was the only one with an ERA over 4.00 (4.48). He struggles with walks and allowed more fly balls than ever last season, something that is not conducive to success pitching in Great American Ballpark. Bauer is overrated for Fantasy because of his name and strikeout ability.
| ||||||||||
Corey Kluber is one of the harder players to evaluate for 2020 but I'm sticking with my original analysis. Last season was a disaster because he suffered a broken arm on a line drive and then a strained oblique while rehabbing. Let's not forget he was terrible in the seven starts before he got hurt. During that time, he owned a 5.80 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate, his lowest rate since 2013. He's also allowed more hard contact the past few seasons. From 2011-2017, Kluber allowed just a 27.4% hard contact rate. From 2018 on, that number is 36.7%. At 34 years old, I'll let somebody else roll the dice in 2020.
| ||||||||||
Let's stick with another Texas Rangers veteran in Mike Minor. He was ridiculous in 2019, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP across 208.1 innings pitched. Maybe I'm buying too much into the underlying ERA estimators but each of FIP (4.25), xFIP (4.60) and SIERA (4.51) say he was pitching over his head. His 80.3% strand rate was also higher than league average. At 32 years old, I'm just not buying the middle-aged breakout. I believe somebody like Matthew Boyd or Kenta Maeda has more upside than Minor, and they're being drafted later.
| ||||||||||
Do not draft Josh Hader! There, I said it. This has nothing to do with ability, though. Hader is absolutely ridiculous. Over the past two seasons, he's first among qualified relivers with a 47.2% strikeout rate. That's nearly 6% better than Edwin Diaz who is ranked second on that list. The problem for Hader comes in the form of Corey Knebel, who is returning from Tommy John surgery and is expected to be ready when play resumes. The last time we saw him, he led the Brewers in saves in both 2017 and 2018. With an ADP of 54.4, you have to be 100% sure Hader will earn most of the save opportunities, and I cannot say that with confidence.
| ||||||||||
Since 2013, the A's have had a different saves leader in every season. This is your reminder of the volatility at the closer position. Also, I'm just not buying the mid-career breakout from Liam Hendriks. Hendriks pitched to a 1.80 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 2019. Enter last season, however, Hendriks owned a 4.72 career ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He was helped a ton by a 2 MPH spike in each of his fastball and slider. Will he be able to maintain that? I'm willing to bet against that.
| ||||||||||
