Fantasy Baseball: What to do with eight worrisome aces, from Zack Wheeler to Trevor Rogers
Are you freaking out yet?
By
Scott White
•
1 min read
Take a deep breath. We're still at the very beginning of this thing.
It stands to reason that atypical performances would be amplified with so little data to absorb them, but in the daily grind of baseball, the atypical is typical. Every player goes through stretches, and just because a player is going through one now doesn't mean it's his new normal.
It's especially true at starting pitcher, where a bad stat line can hang over a player's head for nearly a week. When you've invested big in one and have nothing more to show for it, it can lead to full-on panic.
And look, it's possible yours is a dud. There are some every year. But it's also possible it's just a couple of atypical starts, because a couple is all it is and, again, the atypical is typical in baseball.
My goal here isn't to scare you into dumping a player or dealing him for 75 cents on the dollar, particularly after a hurried spring training in which no one had a chance to build up conventionally. But I do want to assess the concern level for each of these underperforming aces so you know what to watch out for and can at least begin plotting your next move.
I'll use a color scheme to reflect my own level of concern, green being low, yellow being moderate and red being high. For what it's worth, I've already traded for both a red and yellow on this list, capitalizing on others' tendency to panic. Needless to say, I acquired both at a discount.
What made Brandon Woodruff's disastrous first outing all the more concerning is that it came on the heels of an out-and-out spring training shellacking. Granted, spring training is indeed training, particularly for players already on solid footing, but you'd expect a switch to flip once games start to matter. Notable, though, is that Woodruff threw his fastball 71 percent of the time in that start, about 10 percentage points higher than normal. One consequence of the shortened spring training is that secondary arsenals may not be in midseason form yet. Woodruff's pitch selection was more typical in his second start, when he allowed no runs in five innings, and because his velocity hasn't come into question, I think he'll be fine.
| ||||||
The results have been good enough for the former Cy Young winner, but the underlying data raises reason for alarm. Most notable is the velocity, which is down about 2 mph on average from last year, and it's worth pointing out that the same was true in Shane Bieber's two short appearances after returning from a shoulder injury last year. Those appearances were also his first since the sticky substance ban went into effect, and his spin rates still haven't recovered. The whiffs aren't there like we're used to seeing either. Maybe it'll all pick up as he continues to build up, but for a pitcher who has tended toward hard contact, Bieber can't afford to allow much.
| ||||||
Just a couple days ago, the concern level for Julio Urias would have been burning red, but in his second start, he looked much closer to the guy who won 20 games last year, allowing just one hit in five scoreless innings. It's not just about the results, though. You may recall his velocity was the lowest it's ever been in that first start, which he blamed on the weirdness of Coors Field. While he raised it 1 mph in the second start, it's still down quite a bit from last year. Trending the right direction, though, and I'll note that Dodgers pitchers in particular still seem to be in buildup mode.
| ||||||
You picking up on a theme yet? Yes, velocity drops are what concern me most at a time of year when results are obviously skewed by sample size. It feels like they're more widespread than usual -- the drops, I mean -- and the shortened spring training likely has something to do with. It goes double for Wheeler, who basically had no spring training after showing up less prepared than usual because of an offseason shoulder issue. A 3 mph drop is a lot to make up, though, and might suggest there's more to the shoulder than he and the Phillies have let on. I might go so far as to sit Wheeler until we see the velocity tick up.
| ||||||
The velocity checks out fine for Freddy Peralta. Same goes for the pitch selection, and the swinging-strike rate is right where we want it to be. Stuff-wise, he's still aces, which is why I'm not particularly concerned. If anything was going to bring him down from last year's breakthrough, though, it's control, and his has been in the dumpster so far. Still, after only two starts and an abbreviated spring training, it's way too early to conclude anything. After all, he had seven walks in his first seven innings last year, and you see how that turned out.
| ||||||
I'd hate to think Robbie Ray was just a one-year wonder because that one year was nothing short of awe-inspiring -- Cy Young-worthy, even. But the two biggest keys to his breakout were a newfound ability to throw strikes and more heat on the fastball. So far through two starts, he has issued six walks in 13 1/3 innings, and his fastball is down 3 mph. Now, it's only two starts, and I'm not suggesting anyone rush to judgment. But seeing as the strikeouts haven't been there either -- when even in his worst times, they were -- I'm a little bit concerned.
| ||||||
Sometimes bad starts are simply bad starts, and there's nothing more to it than that. I think that's where we are with Jose Berrios, whose velocities and spin rates are within their norms. The pitch selection is a little wonky, but nothing that should raise an eyebrow after only 114 pitches. He can be homer-prone at times, so it's not so surprising to see him serve up three in 5 1/3 innings, especially when he's struggling to locate, as all the walks would suggest. Probably just a case of him still finding his footing after a hurried spring. The track record remains as steady as they come.
| ||||||
Part of what concerns me about Trevor Rogers is that, for as great as his rookie numbers were, he was pretty ordinary over his final nine starts, falling short of six innings in all of them with a 3.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Most alarming was the 11 percent swinging-strike rate during that time as compared to 16 percent in his first 16 starts. And then came the talk this spring of him changing his slider grip when the pitch already took a step forward last year. My preconceptions may have nothing to do with his complete lack of effectiveness so far -- there's been talk he may be tipping his pitches seeing as his trademark changeup is fooling no one -- but even so, I can't shake them.
|
