Bulls, Pacers have played terrible defense heading into tonight's game; Inter, Fiorentina will get a result

The Winter Olympics are here, and I'm not sure I care. Growing up, I loved the Olympics, and I'm one of those weirdos who has always preferred the Winter Olympics to the Summer Olympics. But I'm not feeling all that excited about the games this year.

I think social media is to blame, but I don't mean that in the "social media is the downfall of human society" way. I mean it in the sense that it's so difficult to avoid spoilers now. The time difference between the United States and China results in some odd broadcast times for the events here (you can check out the full schedule here), and it's impossible to avoid the spoilers online while doing everything else in my life that requires me to be online. Considering that one of sport's greatest appeals is the drama and unpredictability, knowing what's going to happen takes a lot of the shine away from the event.

Hopefully, I'll find pleasure in watching it somehow. I'll be trying my damnedest to avoid spoilers as best as possible. What I won't be looking to avoid are the following stories.

Now let's strap ourselves on a luge and fly through a weekend's worth of picks.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏀Bulls at Pacers, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Over 229 (-110): On Jan. 21, Milwaukee's Grayson Allen did something he's done a lot throughout his basketball career, whether in the NBA, college, or wherever he played before that: he delivered a cheap shot to Chicago's Alex Caruso as he went for a layup. Allen was ejected for committing a flagrant two, and, while Caruso finished the game for the Bulls, he broke his wrist in the fall caused by Allen.

Chicago's defense went with him. The Bulls had already lost Lonzo Ball to a knee injury, and the absence of Ball and Caruso took away the team's two best defenders on the perimeter. It has shown in the results. The over has hit in five of Chicago's seven games since, including each of the last four. The average Bulls game in that span has seen 233.3 points scored. The Bulls had a defensive rating of 109.6 on the season before the Caruso injury (Caruso had just returned from another injury). That number has skyrocketed to 117.0 in the seven games since.

Indiana has been even worse defensively in that stretch, with a defensive rating of 120.5. Neither one of these teams can stop anybody at the moment, but while the total for this game has adjusted due to these recent results, it hasn't adjusted enough. I'd take the over on anything below 233, so to get it at 229 is lovely.

Key Trend: The over has hit in five of Chicago's last seven games and six of Indiana's last seven home games.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model loves a play on the total tonight as well, and it has a solid lean on the spread.

💰The Picks

🏀NBA

Hawks at Raptors, 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Under 219 (-110) -- Don't look now, but the Hawks have figured things out on the defensive end. Atlanta ranks 27th in the NBA with a defensive rating of 112.9, but things have improved drastically. The Hawks have won eight of 10 to climb back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and they've done it by stopping other teams from scoring. Atlanta has posted a defensive rating of 104.7 over the last two weeks. That number ranks as the third-best in the NBA in that span.

Tonight the Hawks look to stay hot against a Toronto team that's been solid defensively as well. The Raptors rank 15th in defensive rating on the season, but like Atlanta, they've turned things up a notch lately, ranking 10th in the league the last two weeks. Furthermore, neither one of these teams is in a hurry. While Atlanta's picked up the pace slightly during this run, it still ranks 17th in the NBA in pace. Toronto ranks 26th. So these are two teams that have emphasized the defensive end lately and move slowly. The under makes too much sense.

Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in Atlanta's last five games.

🏀 College Basketball

Nevada at Fresno State, 11 p.m. | TV: FS1

The Pick: Nevada +9 (-110) -- Nevada has lost three straight and five of its last seven. That run of bad results has led to an overcorrection with this line because one of those two wins the Wolf Pack have managed came against this Fresno State team. The Pack beat Fresno in Reno, 77-73, two weeks ago. While Fresno is likely to get revenge tonight back at home, many of their problems in that first game haven't gone away.

Nevada still has a size advantage on the Bulldogs, which should help them take advantage when it comes to scoring on the interior and the glass. Plus, while Fresno State has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 92.9 on the season (29th nationally), that number has spiked to 98.1 in its eight Mountain West games. A soft non-conference schedule helped overshadow Fresno's defensive deficiencies, but life has been far more difficult in conference, and the market hasn't caught on just yet.

Plus, Fresno is one of the slowest moving teams in the country. Its adjusted tempo ranks 355th of 358 teams. It's hard to cover larger spreads as a favorite when you move that slowly. There's less room for error, and considering Fresno has turned the ball over on 18.7% of its possessions in conference play, it's making plenty of errors.

Key Trend: Nevada beat Fresno 77-73 two weeks ago.

⚽ Soccer

Inter Milan vs. AC Milan, Saturday, 12 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+

The Pick: Inter (-125) -- Any time I handicap a soccer match, one of my starting points is checking each team's home and away splits, but that's meaningless here as both these teams play in the same stadium. Thankfully, I have the first Derby della Madonnina to look back on from November to help me reach a conclusion here, and it's the same conclusion I reached for that match. Inter is going to win. Inter did not win the first match, as it ended in a 1-1 draw, but a closer look shows that it shouldn't have.

Using expected goals (xG), Inter won the match 2.6-0.9. Inter's lone goal came on a penalty by Hakan Calhanoglu, but a second penalty kick -- this one by Lautaro Martinez -- was saved. Milan's lone goal came on an own goal as a shot was deflected off Stefan de Vrij past Samir Handanovic. While AC Milan had more shot on target during the match, none were from close range. Inter controlled the play for most of the match, as have most of the top teams in Serie A against AC Milan this season. I don't expect things will look much different on Saturday.

Key Trend: Inter have lost only one of the last nine meetings.

Fiorentina vs. Lazio, Saturday, 2:45 p.m. | TV: Paramount+

The Pick: Lazio (+195) -- There's a lot more gut than math to this play than I typically use, but this strikes me as one of those times when going with the gut pays off. Fiorentina has been one of the more pleasant surprises in Serie A this season, as it's been challenging for the European spots all season. The problem is the Viola have tailed off in recent weeks before the break. They've managed only one win in their last five Serie A matches, and that was a 6-0 drubbing of a Genoa squad that appears destined for relegation.

And that was before selling Dusan Vlahovic to Juventus. Fiorentina has scored 41 goals in 22 Serie A matches, and Vlahovic scored 17 of them. That's a lot of production to lose. While I like Fiorentina's moves to help overcome the loss they knew was coming, I have a difficult time believing Fiorentina will be operating at peak efficiency this quickly. It's a team that will need to learn how to play without their focal point, and they'll have to learn against a Lazio team that's struggled on the road this year but knows exactly what it is.

Key Trend: Fiorentina has won only one of their last five Serie A matches.

Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid, Sunday, 10:15 a.m. | TV: ESPN+

The Pick: Under 2.5 (-125) -- It does not blow my mind that we're in February, and neither Atlético Madrid nor Barcelona have any hope of catching Real Madrid. We've seen that happen before in La Liga. What's mindblowing is that it's February and neither Atlético nor Barcelona seemingly has a realistic chance of catching Sevilla or Real Betis. That's not nearly as common! But that's where we stand, with Atlético in fourth place in Spain, just ahead of Barcelona in fifth. That means the stakes are high because these two will likely spend the rest of the season battling for the final Champions League spot in Spain, so picking up three points here could prove to be the difference.

I have no idea which team will get them if anybody manages to win at all. No, I'm taking the under because I expect both teams to take an extremely cautious approach with so much at stake. Atlético hasn't been as sound defensively on the road, but they're facing a Barcelona team that hasn't been nearly as potent in attack as we're used to seeing, and now finds itself with a bunch of new faces -- Ferran Torres, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Adama Traore -- looking to break in who aren't used to playing together. There's a strong chance this turns out to be a boring slog, so that's what I'm betting on.

Key Trend: Atlético and Barcelona have the lowest xG against of any clubs in Spain.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Winter Olympics begin on Friday with the Opening Ceremonies, but how will the US do in Beijing? SportsLine Olympics expert Mike Tierney has everything you need to know before betting on Team USA's medal count.