NBA picks and best bets: Pistons aim to stay hot against the spread; expect high-scoring Heat-Hornets game
Don't miss out on backing Detroit, who will look to keep its late-season surge going against Minnesota on Wednesday night
By
Jack Maloney
•
5 min read
Welcome back to CBS Sports' NBA betting notebook. Each week we'll take a look at a few trends going on throughout the league from a betting perspective, as well as examine the game of the week.
This week, we'll take a look at one of the league's hottest teams, the Detroit Pistons. With eight wins in their last 10 games, they've surged back into the playoff picture. Can they not only win, but keep up their strong form against the spread as well? Speaking of the Eastern Conference playoff race, two other teams in the thick of it square off on Wednesday night when the Heat visit the Hornets. But while the result of this game is important, we'll focus on the point total.
Last week's record: 2-1. Season record: 4-4
Trending up: Timberwolves at Pistons
Trend to know: Pistons are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games
Once dismissed as yet another disappointing team in an Eastern Conference full of them, the Detroit Pistons have turned their season around in recent weeks. They've won nine of their last 11 games to get back to .500 on the season and climb into the playoff picture. Entering Wednesday, they're tied with the Brooklyn Nets for sixth place in the East.
And as they've surged up the standings by winning games left and right, they've also done well against the spread. They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and 5-0 in their last five home games. And home is where they'll be on Wednesday night when they take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Like many teams, the Pistons are much better at home, where they haven't lost since early February. And they're facing a Timberwolves team that has been a disaster on the road, going just 9-24 on their travels this season.
Zooming in even closer to more recent trends, the big reason for the Pistons' turnaround has been their improved offensive play. For much of the season they've struggled offensively. Yet in their last five games, they boast the third-best offensive rating in the league at 117.2 points per 100 possessions. A big reason for that is their outstanding 3-point shooting, as they're knocking down over 43 percent of their attempts from deep in that stretch. The good news for them is it should continue against a Wolves team that has been disgraceful on the defensive end lately, giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions in their last five games.
The Pistons are at home, playing their best basketball of the season and have plenty of motivation with the playoffs on the line. They should be able to cover against the Wolves, who have been terrible on the road this season and face the added challenge of playing on consecutive nights.
Bet: Pistons -5.5
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Over/Under: Heat at Hornets
Trend to know: The total has gone over in five of the Heat's last six games, and over in six of the Hornets' last seven games
As the playoff race in the Western Conference turns rather anticlimactic in the final month-plus of the season, it's the Eastern Conference race that's heating up. There are currently five teams fighting for the last three spots, and they're all within three games of each other. Two of them will meet on Wednesday night in Charlotte, as the Hornets host the Miami Heat.
With identical 29-34 records, the two teams are currently tied for the eighth and final spot, and this game in particular is extremely important. A win for the Hornets would not only put them a game ahead of the Heat, but would clinch the season tiebreaker, which could very well prove the difference between making the playoffs or not.
But while it's clear the game is important from a standings perspective, what about from a gambling one? For this contest, we'll focus on the point total rather than the spread. As we head down the stretch, it's important to look even more closely at recent trends rather than full season ones, and this matchup features two teams heading in similar directions.
Over the last five games, the Heat and Hornets have both played well on the offensive end, while pretty much completely ignoring the other side of the court. During that stretch, the Heat have the best offensive rating in the league at 119.4 points per 100 possessions, thanks in large part to the boost of shooting and floor spacing they've gotten from Kelly Olynyk. As for the Hornets, they're offensive rating of 112.2 is just outside the top 10, and a slight bump from their full-season numbers.
Meanwhile, the Hornets are 28th in the league in defensive rating over the last five games, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions, while the Heat aren't faring much better. Miami checks in at 23rd in the league, with a defensive rating of 114.9.
With both the Heat and Hornets trending up on offense and down on defense, and a fairly low -- for this season, at least -- point total, these two sides should have little trouble going over.
Bet: Over 215.5
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