In a Sunday afternoon time slot, the Miami Heat (29-12) will travel to face the San Antonio Spurs (17-23). Jimmy Butler and company toppled the Spurs at home earlier in the week, while San Antonio will look to bounce back from a close-fought loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Friday evening. 

Tip-off is at 3 p.m. ET at the AT&T Center. Sportsbooks list Miami as a one-point road favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220.5 in the latest Heat vs. Spurs odds. Before making any Spurs vs. Heat picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned over $2,000 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 12 on a blistering 28-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Spurs vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Spurs:

  • Heat vs. Spurs spread: Heat -1
  • Heat vs. Spurs over-under: 220.5 points
  • Heat vs. Spurs money line: Heat -119, Spurs -101
  • MIA: The Heat are 24-16-1 against the spread this season
  • SAS: The Spurs have failed to cover in three of their last four games

Why the Heat can cover

The model knows that the Heat are a top-10 team on the offensive end, including a strong ability to create free-throw attempts by attacking the rim. Miami is also an elite-level shooting team, ranking second in the NBA in effective field-goal percentage and attempting shots from efficient areas of the floor. 

The Heat should be able to take full advantage of a San Antonio defensive unit that rates as a bottom-10 unit in the NBA right now, even with the lack of home-court advantage. On the other end of the floor, Miami should be able to secure the end of possessions by corralling defensive rebounds, and that is a strong factor in maintaining overall defensive efficiency on the road. 

Why the Spurs can cover

Even so, Miami isn't a lock to cover the Heat vs. Spurs spread on Sunday afternoon. The model also understands that the Spurs are fundamentally sound and that manifests with an elite avoidance of turnovers. Given that the Heat struggle to create havoc plays defensively, that is a positive recipe for San Antonio, particularly at home. In addition, the lack of giveaways should help limit Miami's opportunities to score easily in transition. 

The Spurs are also a fantastic defensive rebounding team and, while the Heat are among the best in the NBA in creating free-throw attempts, San Antonio is set up better than most teams to avoid total doom in that area.

How to make Heat vs. Spurs picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations.

So who wins Heat vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Spurs vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.