FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022: Beware of England's goal-scoring prowess ahead of big France quarterfinal showdown
Welcome to Monday's edition of the Golazo Starting XI newsletter
By
Mike Goodman
•
4 min read
The round of 16 has seen the traditional powers assert themselves with the Netherlands, Argentina, France and England all advancing comfortably to the quarterfinals. Will the trend continue? Croatia, Brazil, Spain and Portugal sure hope so. I'm Mike Goodman, and this is the Golazo Starting XI newsletter. On this Monday, we are going to look at why not all high-scoring teams are created equal.
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⚽ The Forward Line
The England-France collision course
Two of the most explosive attacks will meet in the last game of the quarterfinal round. France and England each progressed while putting three goals past their opponent on Sunday. England's 12 goals are the most scored in the tournament and France's nine are tied with Spain for second (though Spain have yet to play their round of 16 match against Morocco). But despite the similarly gaudy numbers, France and England are not the same. And when they face off on Saturday it will likely be France's attack trying to carry the day against the England defense. Here's why.
Despite England's gaudy scoring numbers, it's France's statistics that are indicative of a side creating a lot going forward. England, meanwhile, profile as a team doing the most with the chances created. England have taken only 47 shots across their four matches. France have taken 70. France's expected goals (xG) tally on the tournament is 8.58 while England's is only 6.43.
A side-by-side comparison of their shots below tells the story nicely. Les Bleus (on the left) have more shots, and more good shots in the box in comparison to England (on the right in red). The Three Lions aren't bad by any means, but you can clearly see all those stars, which represent goals, are simply not accompanied by the volume of attack that France have put up.
James Benge wrote more about this after England beat Senegal 3-1 yesterday: "To see such numbers, one might assume that this is a free-flowing side making chances at will, imposing their will on opposition and fizzing the ball from one end of the pitch to another in only a few short passes. In patches it can be, but this is a team as capable of scoring with the beauty and precision of Saka and Jordan Henderson as it is spending half an hour with no real idea how to progress the ball out of their own third. In a heartbeat, they can switch from sufferball to the pleasure principle."
France are simply the better attacking side. So the question when these two teams meet will be whether England can weather the storm, take their relatively fewer chances and make the most out of them.
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🔗 Midfield Link Play
Don't forget about France's supporting cast
That Kylian Mbappe guy ain't no joke. He leads the tournament with five goals, 21 shots, 10 shots on target and 3.06 xG despite having not yet attempted a penalty. But he's not the only reason France have been dominant. As Jonathan Johnson writes, France's supporting cast has also risen to the challenge. In particular, he points to Antoine Griezmann, Adrien Rabiot and Hugo Lloris as players defying the relatively modest expectations placed on them.
Let's get to some more links:
- As you process the USMNT's abrupt departure, we've got a Grant Wahl postmortem mailbag for you.
- Get caught up on the England's when over Senegal. And France's win over Poland.
- In a tournament of firsts for women referees, Kathryn Nesbitt became the first to work a knockout stage match.
- In Soccer We Trust! The gang debate whether manager Gregg Berhalter should come back for another cycle.
- House of Champions! Jude Bellingham's star turn for England has Ian Joy, Jonathan Johnson and the team debating where his career should take him.
- In college soccer news, Julianne Sitch became the first woman to coach a men's team to a national title, leading her UChicago side to a DIII title.
- Remember, you can catch the Champions League, Serie A, WSL and more on Paramount+ -- get 50% off the annual plan with promo code ALLYEAR!
💰 The Back Lines
Best bets
Let's get to some picks, all odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
- Brazil vs. South Korea, Monday, 2 p.m. ET
💰 THE PICK: Under 2.5 goals (+110). The unders are going to start coming through eventually in this tournament, I swear. Brazil might have the reputation for free-flowing attack, but the reality is that this team is first and foremost a defensive juggernaut. They've conceded the fewest expected goals in the tournament at just under one. If they have issues at fullback, expect them to baton down the hatches even more firmly in the belief that one of their attacking stars will eventually find a breakthrough.
- Morocco vs. Spain, Tuesday, 10 a.m. ET
💰 THE PICK: Morocco (+525). Can we get one upset in the round of 16? Maybe not, but if so, this might be your best bet. They comfortably won their group over Croatia and the now eliminated Belgium. A team that seemed to lack scoring punch before the tournament began has been reinvigorated with Hakim Ziyech back in the side. Spain's weakness is their soft center backs, and maybe the Morocco attack will be able to take advantage.
