Canelo vs. Chavez: Fight predictions, picks, start time, odds, card, tale of the tape

The first weekend in May has often been called the busiest in all of sports with the Kentucky Derby, the NBA playoffs and key early-season MLB series heating up. It's also typically the weekend of the biggest boxing match of the year, coinciding with the Mexican holiday Cinco de Mayo.

That will once again prove true on Saturday, at the very least in terms of name value, as Mexican superstars Canelo Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will square off at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (HBO PPV, 9 p.m. ET).

Taking a glance at their respective fighting styles reveals that this 164.5-pound catchweight bout has all the makings to be action-packed. Add to that the reality of the bad blood between them, including years of trash talk, and this one has a shot at living up to its billing as the biggest fight in Mexican boxing history.

Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) is 6-0 since his lone loss, a humbling decision defeat to Floyd Mayweather in 2013, and has headlined five pay-per-views during that span to become the sport's biggest draw.

Chavez (50-2-1, 32 KOs), meanwhile, is looking to redeem himself in a big way after five years spent damaging his career through drug suspensions, missed weight and an overall lack of professionalism.

Let's take a look at how the fighters match up.

Canelo vs. Chavez tale of the tape

Fighter	Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez	Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Nickname	Canelo	JCC Jr.
Record	48-1-1, 34 KOs	50-2-1, 32 KOs
Titles	Lineal middleweight	None
Age	26	31
Height	5-foot-9	6-foot-1
Reach	70.5-inches	73-inches
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown	Guadalajara, Mexico	Culiacan, Mexico
Best wins	Austin Trout (UD 12, 2013), Erislandy Lara (SD 12, 2014), Miguel Cotto (UD 12, 2015)	Sebastian Zbik (MD 12, 2011), Marco Antonio Rubio (UD 12, 2012), Andy Lee (TKO 7, 2012)
Notable losses	Floyd Mayweather (MD 12, 2013)	Sergio Martinez (UD 12, 2012), Andrzej Fonfara (TKO 9, 2015)

What's at stake?

While Alvarez remains the lineal middleweight champion for having beaten the guy (Miguel Cotto) who beat the guy (Sergio Martinez) who beat the guy (Kelly Pavlik), etc., this is a super middleweight fight contested at an agreed limit of 164.5 pounds. The real title at stake here is the pride of Mexico and being able to declare oneself as the country's undisputed most popular and best fighter.

Alvarez also deserves credit for shunning the WBC's attempt to create a ceremonial "Cinco de Mayo" championship belt, refusing to pay the sanctioning fees for the meaningless title to be at stake. As both fighters have said themselves multiple times, this fight isn't about titles. It's about being the last man standing on, what has annually amounted to be, boxing's own Super Bowl weekend.

If Alvarez is victorious (convincingly enough that a big-money rematch isn't a necessity), the fight would be the perfect lead-in to a fall superfight against unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. Not only is Alvarez out of excuses for putting the fight off any further after two years of waiting, he has maintained he will officially campaign at 160 pounds moving forward.

For Chavez, what's at stake is likely his final shot at keeping his once golden PPV brand afloat. Even a competitive loss can open the door for Chavez to accept big-money fights in the future. But as it always has been, it comes down to whether he wants it enough and is willing to give his best effort.

If Chavez disappoints the public once more and further disrespects the sport, his days in the spotlight will be behind him.

Before we go any further, here's how the fight card for Saturday night breaks down.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. odds

Favorite	Challenger	Weightclass
Canelo Alvarez -460	Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. +360	Catchweight
David Lemieux -3500	Marco Reyes +1600	Middleweight
Lucas Matthysee -300	Emmanuel Taylor +250	Super lightweight
Joseph Diaz Jr. -650	Manuel Avila +475	Featherweight

Who has the edge?

1. Power: Neither fighter has been known as a one-punch knockout artist in the respective divisions in which they had the most success. Alvarez, as a junior middleweight, hits hard enough with timed counter shots to keep you honest, but he will be facing a fighter who has competed as high as light heavyweight and has recorded a pair of knockouts in middleweight title bouts. Chavez's strength is going to the body, which Alvarez will face early to prove that he has enough pop to gain Chavez's respect. Advantage: Chavez

2. Speed: This is another category in which neither fighter has much experience holding an advantage against the majority of their top foes. But Alvarez, who has long made up for slower hands at 154 pounds by improving his timing, retains the clear edge after proving he can compete with the likes of slick boxers Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout. Alvarez's greatest advantage in speed should come in terms of his footwork, where Chavez has never been deft at in any weight class. Advantage: Alvarez

3. Defense: Alvarez rarely gets the respect he deserves from a defensive standpoint, where he has often overcome a lack of foot and hand speed against top junior middleweights by still proving able to avoid their biggest shots. He does so by swiveling his torso to dodge punches while remaining close enough to counter without backpedalling. He'll be fighting an opponent in Chavez who has never made defense even remotely a priority. Chavez has forever relied on his strong chin, using a crouched style of face-first pressure that has negated his typical height and reach advantage. Advantage: Alvarez

4. Technique: For a fighter with such a famous last name who reached the heights he did as a middleweight in his prime more than five years ago, Chavez has always been a crude, hulking figure who relies on constant forward motion to wear down his opponents. That's not to say that he didn't try to improve. In fact, his boxing seemed to improve dramatically under the tutelage of Freddie Roach in 2012 before Chavez's motivation began to wander. But technique has slowly become Alvarez's calling card. He timed a counter right hand perfectly to put Amir Khan to sleep in 2016 and has routinely found a home of late for his uppercut from the outside. Advantage: Alvarez

5. Intangibles: This is where things might get interesting, especially if Chavez has found a way under Hall of Fame trainer Nacho Beristain and respected strength coach "Memo" Heredia to restore his motivation to a level we haven't seen before. Simply put: If Chavez isn't too far gone and can summon the very best of himself, this fight has all the makings to be interesting. How could it not, considering Alvarez is moving up nearly two weight classes and Chavez regularly rehydrates upwards of 20 pounds? Chavez will ultimately be the decider of his own success. If he has done the work in camp and comes to win no matter what, he instantly becomes a live underdog. If he hasn't, and the bad memories of quitting on his stool against Andrzej Fonfara in 2015 are still lingering, it will be a long night. But Chavez's edge in size, and the fact that Alvarez has never been the definitively smaller opponent, simply can't be overlooked. Advantage: Chavez

Prediction

There are many ways to do the math on this fight and most of the equations end with Alvarez winning, likely by decision, which has helped make him such a large betting favorite. A lot of that comes down to whether Chavez can make the weight without compromising himself and has done the work to go 12 hard rounds.

If Chavez isn't able to turn back the clock or produce the best of himself from a standpoint of motivation and fitness, we are still looking at action, but likely more of the one-sided variety as he plods forward into uppercuts and clean counter shots as Alvarez looks to sidestep like a matador. In that scenario, an Alvarez victory by TKO due to cuts, corner stoppage or even Chavez saying "no mas" isn't out of the question.

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But there's enough reason to believe we have a decent chance at seeing a focused and determined Chavez of some kind, focused on proving his point that Alvarez is nothing more than a pretty boy and that his own career derailment is behind him.

If we see a rejuvenated Chavez who is hellbent on destruction by walking Alvarez down, cornering him and punishing him to the body, the fight will get a whole lot more interesting in a hurry. If Alvarez is unable to discipline Chavez with his power and prevent him getting up in his chest, it instantly becomes twice as interesting.

The reason for the increased intrigue is that we've never seen Alvarez in a situation in which he wasn't the bigger puncher, or ever needed to rally from behind or overcome severe damage. Outside of a points loss to Mayweather in which he was too timid and never really had a chance to begin with, Alvarez has been a career front runner who has done well in close fights against Trout and Lara to use pressure to sway the judges.

But what happens if Alvarez has an opponent who weighs 20 pounds more than him who is leaning on him, digging hooks to the body and taking his best shots without wavering? Does Alvarez have what it takes to dig deep enough to find a Plan B?

The entire scenario remains a very large "what if," dependent upon many factors that only the two fighters will realize once the opening bell rings. But one thing we do know is that Alvarez is on the verge of transitioning from a very good boxer/puncher to a great one and enters this fight with an overwhelming advantage in terms of skills.

In the end, that should be enough to sway the judges, even if the fight is unpredictably close, as Alvarez long has a history of doing so in his biggest fights. Chavez will likely have more success early than many are giving him a shot to, but in the end, the skills deficit will be too profound. Pick: Alvarez by unanimous decision