Brandon Ingram vs. Duke's bevy of NBA Draft picks in the one-and-done era
Ingram did the rare thing: become a Duke star who wasn't hated. How will he fare in the Association
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5 min read
With the NBA Draft now less than a month away, we're taking a look at a number of projected or likely first-round picks and comparing them to those who came before -- at the very same school. The comparison game is a go-to among fans, scouts, GMs and scribes, but for fun, we're going to narrow the gap to only looking at specific schools.
We're wrapping up our College Comparison series with a look at the latest Duke player that will go in the top three. When Brandon Ingram's name is called with the first or second pick on June 21, he will become the fourth Blue Devil since 2011 to be taken in the first three picks. Duke has turned into, arguably, the most successful recruiting school in the country. A reminder that Mike Krzyzewski is 69.
Ingram is an interesting case study. First off, he became a star at Duke ... and wasn't hated at all. Not even low-key disdain for the Kinston, N.C., native. This is almost unheard. If you become really good at Duke, the masses find ways to not like you. But Ingram dodged all of that. In part because he's not outspoken, in part because his body language is as ambivalent as it gets, and in part because he was sharing the floor with Grayson Allen, who's become a magnet for fan-addled hate.
Ingram's pro prospects are seemingly fit for the modern era due to his length, his reliable jump shot, his ability to handle the ball very well despite looking like he's got the bend resistance of a tree branch. He's got to add weight, no doubt about it, but there's good reason why he's been in the mix for the No. 1 pick for months now. He's got the skills and, on the whole, was more consistent than Ben Simmons last season. How does Ingram compare to previous Duke players? Who is he most like, and what's a reasonable expectation for his career? Since Duke has put in dozens of players in the Coach K era, I'll keep the pool narrow and stick to the one-and-done era (since 2006).
(Offensive rating and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) are from RealGM's player database. All measurements are via Draft Express' database. Height is measured with shoes on.)
Duke freshman Brandon Ingram
Dossier
Height: 6 feet, 9.75 inches
Weight: 190
Wingspan: 7 feet, 3 inches
Standing reach: 9 feet, 1.5 inches
Max vertical reach: Not measured
Career college stat line: 17.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, 34.6 mpg, 114.6 ORtg, 21.14 PER
Projected range in NBA draft: 1-2
Body-wise, his measurements most closely resemble: Rodney Hood
Ingram's exact body type isn't like anyone that's come out of Duke. The closest is Hood, who was taken in the first round two years ago. He measured 1.75 inches shorter, weighed 18 pounds heavier, had a much shorter wingspan. Guys like Kyle Singler and Josh McRoberts are more in Ingram's genre in terms of height and wingspan, but neither of those players are similar in build and certainly not weight. If anything, Ingram's skinniness is the one glaring drawback about him.
Stat-wise, most closely resembles: Kyle Singler
Singler, who was the 33rd pick in the 2011 draft, averaged 16.2 points and 6.8 rebounds with a 20.3 PER in his time at Duke. He was also very close in ORtg to Ingram (Singler at 115.3, Ingram at 114.6). And while Singler's managed to stay on and become a No. 8, 9, 10 option in the NBA, I can't see Ingram in five years not earning significant minutes in the playoffs, which was Singler's situation with Oklahoma City this season.
Can be better than: Ryan Kelly, Elliot Williams, Nolan Smith
Ingram's ceiling right now is much higher than any of these players, and most players that have come out of Duke, of course. But let's talk about his floor. What's a worst-case scenario for Ingram? His length and natural ability, and the fact he'll be a top-two pick, practically guarantee he'll see a second contract in the NBA. So ... five years in the league, averaging 8/4/2. I mean, that's that absolute nightmare scenario. If he did that, he'd still easily outperform the three guys above.
Probably won't be as good as: Kyrie Irving
Now let's talk potential. Ingram can wind up being a 15-year pro who goes to multiple All-Star Games and starts for 85 percent of his career. Averages around 20 points. I can see all of that happening. But Irving's shown flashes of being a top-10 player in the league, so he's the only reasonable player to put here (and I'm not even convinced he can't be as good as Irving). Kyrie is the only Duke player in the one-and-done era to reach an All-Star Game. Did you know that? I think the similar thing with Irving and Ingram: They can be excellent 1Bs. I don't see either player thriving being the absolute No. 1 option on an NBA team.
Most probable career arc/impact: J.J. Redick
It's too early to say Ingram's career could have the trajector of Jahlil Okafor or Justise Winslow, but I will say I think Ingram and Okafor do wind up having very similar NBA runs in terms of individual numbers and accomplishments. Looking further back, Redick is the most likely candidate here. He's been in the NBA for a decade now, has put up 11.5 points per game in nearly 25 minutes per game. He's an ORtg of 116.6 for his career and a PER of 14.8. Ingram projects better than this, but among Duke players picked since 2006, he's the best match. If we were to look all the way back, at all players taken since Coach K got to Duke? I think my choice for best body type and game fit would be Mike Dunleavy, Jr., and I think Ingram could do as much damage in his career as Elton Brand (15.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, two-time All-Star who played for 16 seasons).
Duke players drafted since 2006
2015: Jahlil Okafor (third), Justise Winslow (10th), Tyus Jones (24th)
2014: Jabari Parker (second), Rodney Hood (23rd)
2013: Mason Plumlee (22nd), Ryan Kelly (48th)
2012: Austin Rivers (10th), Miles Plumlee (26th)
2011: Kyrie Irving (first), Nolan Smith (21st), Kyle Singler (33rd)
2010: Elliot Williams (22nd)
2009: Gerald Henderson (12th)
2007: Josh McRoberts (37th)
2006: Shelden Williams (fifth), J.J. Redick (11th)
OVERVIEW
Total players drafted in one-and-done era: 17
Lottery picks: Eight
First round: 14
Average career college stat line of Duke first rounders: 13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 28.2 mpg, 116.8 ORtg, 20.9 PER
Average career NBA stat line of Duke first rounders: 8.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 22.4 mpg, 104.2 ORtg, 12.9 PER
Total All-Star Games for all Duke players: 3
Average number of teams per player: 2.5
