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Wednesday’s ‘Double-Bubble’ games

Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-7, 5th BIG12 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.6010/28 | SOS/Rank: 0.5893/20
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-5 3-2 4-1 7-1 3-0
Kansas State (17-10, 6-8, 6th BIG12 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5748/55 | SOS/Rank: 0.5648/47
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 1-4 2-3 1-3 6-0 7-0

Oklahoma State 80, Kansas State 68

The Cowboys played themselves off the bubble Wednesday with a win at Kansas State.  The Wildcats needed this one more.  KSU is now 10-11 vs the RPI top 100 and has a two-game road trip coming that could make that worse. The Wildcats have lost seven of their last nine, and that trend must reverse itself immediately or they will find themselves in the NIT.

Boise State at Nevada

Boise State (17-8, 10-4, 1st MWC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5677/64 | SOS/Rank: 0.5291/95
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 1-1 0-1 3-3 7-3 5-0
Nevada (21-6, 10-4, 1st MWC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5836/44 | SOS/Rank: 0.5135/131
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-1 0-0 5-1 8-4 8-0

Nevada 85 Boise State 77

Nevada pulled back into a tie for first place in the Mountain West with Colorado State with a win over Boise State at home tonight.  The Wolf Pack swept the season series with the Broncos, which could be a difference maker if both teams are fighting for an at-large bid.  The win is Nevada’s sixth against teams in the top 100, but none have come over a likely tournament team.

Boise State still has the best win of the two with a victory over SMU outside the league, but the Broncos only have four top 100 wins and three bad losses. To be an at-large team, they need to win out the regular season and roll the dice in Las Vegas in the conference tournament.

Looking for the big win

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU (17-10, 6-8, 7th BIG12 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5733/56 | SOS/Rank: 0.5728/32
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-4 2-4 3-2 5-0 6-0

Kansas 87, TCU 68

TCU hung with Kansas for a half, but the Jayhawks ran away after the break. The Horned Frogs are still looking for a big win in the league, and still have one more chance at home against West Virginia on Saturday. TCU has a poor record against the better teams they have played, but the Frogs still have time to improve that.

California Golden Bears

California (18-8, 9-5, 4th PAC12 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5881/39 | SOS/Rank: 0.5663/45
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-5 1-1 3-2 7-0 7-0

Oregon 68, Cal 65

Cal is going to be very frustrated. The Bears had Oregon down 16 in the second half and gave it away. Cal could have played itself comfortably into the tournament with a win. Instead, it is the third straight loss for the Bears. Now, they need to finish the season properly and see what they can do in the Pac-12 tournament.

Providence Friars

Providence (16-11, 6-8, 7th BIGE ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5655/68 | SOS/Rank: 0.5699/36
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 2-6 2-1 4-1 3-1 5-2

Providence 68, Creighton 66

Providence picked up its third straight win over one of the top teams in the Big East and the Friars’ first road win against a top 50 team. That fills a big hole in the Friars’ tournament resume. Now, they start a part of their schedule that can only hurt them.  Providence must guard against giving away the good work it has done over the last few weeks.

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall (16-10, 6-8, 6th BIGE ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5791/48 | SOS/Rank: 0.5712/34
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 1-6 2-0 3-3 3-1 7-0
Outlook

Seton Hall 71, Xavier 64

The Pirates picked up another quality win, this time over the Musketeers. That gives them four top 50 wins, all against likely tournament teams. Now the Hall just needs to take care of business against some of the lesser teams in the league.

Looking to avoid the bad loss

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan (17-10, 7-7, 7th BIG10 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5749/54 | SOS/Rank: 0.5720/33
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 2-4 1-3 6-2 3-1 5-0

Michigan 68, Rutgers 64

The Wolverines picked up their second road win of the year at Rutgers. That is important for Michigan because it may have to win again on the road to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, if the Wolverines beat Purdue on Saturday at home, the season-ending road trip might not matter.

Illinois State Redbirds

Illinois State (23-5, 15-1, 2nd MVC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5954/33 | SOS/Rank: 0.5100/141
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-0 1-1 1-2 10-1 10-1

Illinois State 50, Southern Illinois 46

The Redbirds won, but this was a game not even a mother could love. Still, at this time of year, it is all about getting the W. Style points are optional. ISU avoided a bad loss and pulled back into a tie for the MVC lead.

VCU Rams

VCU (22-5, 12-2, 1st ATL10 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.6124/26 | SOS/Rank: 0.5487/67
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-1 2-0 5-2 11-2 4-0

VCU 64, Saint Louis 50

VCU got off to a slow start but pulled away from SLU, as expected. The Rams can play their way off the bubble on their upcoming road trip, which will take them to Rhode Island and Dayton.

In for now

Dayton Flyers

Dayton (22-5, 13-2, 1st ATL10 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.6112/27 | SOS/Rank: 0.5478/69
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-1 3-2 7-1 4-1 7-0
Outlook
The Flyers are tied with the Rams atop the A-10, which is down this year. Dayton has yet to be a team that is likely to make the tournament, and is unlikely to even get that chance. That means that the Flyers cannot afford a big mistake.

On the fence

Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas (20-7, 9-5, 4th SEC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5938/35 | SOS/Rank: 0.5542/61
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-3 3-2 6-0 7-1 4-1
Outlook
Arkansas was in serious trouble following a loss at Missouri followed by a big home loss to Vandy. The Hogs have come back to life, though, with a win at South Carolina, their first over a likely tournament team. Arkansas is not out of the woods yet, but it was encouraging to see the Razorbacks blow out Ole Miss after the South Carolina win.

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State (16-11, 8-6, 6th BIG10 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5834/45 | SOS/Rank: 0.5956/14
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 2-6 2-0 4-4 4-1 4-0
Outlook
It has been a rough season for the young Spartans, who already have 11 losses. They might have just gotten younger after senior G Eron Harris badly sprained his knee against Purdue. MSU has four regular-season games left, including Wisconsin at home and at Maryland, and can probably afford to lose only one of those. That is assuming they win their other two, and that is not a great assumption.

Ole Miss Rebels

Mississippi (16-11, 7-7, 6th SEC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5667/66 | SOS/Rank: 0.5684/41
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-4 1-4 3-3 7-0 6-0
Outlook
Ole Miss is 1-8 against the top 50, and the team they beat is not going to the tournament. They are also 4-11 against the top 100 after losing to Arkansas. Mississippi doesn’t have any bad losses, but hasn’t really done anything to get the selection committee’s attention either. Unfortunately, the SEC will not give them many chances to do that, but they will have at least one chance to pick up a top 50 win.

Work to do

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Middle Tenn State (24-4, 14-1, 1st USA ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5982/32 | SOS/Rank: 0.5148/125
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-0 2-1 2-0 9-2 10-1
Outlook
In 2013, the Raiders became one of the least deserving teams to ever receive an at-large bid when they got one with just one RPI top 100 win. They are already in better shape now, with four to their name. Two of them are over other non-major conference leaders, but none over likely at-large teams. They also have a home loss to Tennessee State and at real clunker at UTEP. There is little margin for error playing a C-USA schedule.

UT-Arlington Mavericks

UT Arlington (21-6, 11-3, 1st BELT ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5948/34 | SOS/Rank: 0.5120/134
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 1-1 0-1 1-1 9-2 8-1
Outlook
Of the potential at-large teams from non-major conferences, the Mavericks have the best win, which came at St. Mary’s. They have another top-100 win, but three bad losses. Unlike Boise State, UT Arlington’s league will not provide them chances for any more, so they need to win out the regular season and see where things stand.

Wichita State Shockers

Wichita State (26-4, 16-1, 1st MVC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5880/40 | SOS/Rank: 0.5016/154
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-1 1-3 1-0 12-0 11-0
Outlook
Wichita State doesn’t have any bad losses. That’s the best thing you can about the Shockers profile. They have only two top-100 wins, a 41-point pounding of Illinois State and at Colorado State, which flutters above and below that line. That is not usually enough. The MVC is down this year, so there is nothing left but chances for bad losses, and WSU cannot afford any of those. The Shockers’ overall SOS is relatively poor also. It would have to be a really weak field for Wichita State to get in with this profile, but that worked for them last year.

Rhode Island Rams

Rhode Island (18-9, 10-5, 3rd ATL10 ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5812/47 | SOS/Rank: 0.5551/59
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 1-1 0-2 2-4 9-2 6-0
Outlook
URI has only three top-100 wins, although that includes a victory against Cincinnati. Of bigger concern is the poor play since the loss to Dayton. The Rams looked good against La Salle though, so that is good as they head in to their big game against VCU.

height="35" width="35" style="float:left;margin-right: 10px;">Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette (17-10, 8-7, 5th BIGE ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5604/71 | SOS/Rank: 0.5553/58
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 3-4 2-1 2-4 2-1 8-0
Outlook
Marquette didn’t play a very good non-conference schedule and is paying for that a little bit now. The Golden Eagles have a very difficult schedule to finish the regular season and will have to find a way to win at least one of those games to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama (16-10, 9-5, 4th SEC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5571/75 | SOS/Rank: 0.5512/63
Opponent’s RPI Rank No. 1-25 No. 26-50 No. 51-100 No. 101-200 No. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-3 2-2 2-4 6-1 6-0
Outlook
Alabama’s four-overtime victory at South Carolina was its first over a team with any shot at making the tournament, so the Tide will need more. They have nothing but winnable games left, even though a couple are on the road. The Tide will need to win at most, if not all of those.