NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Why Indiana's fate hinges on its next four games
The Hoosiers, Oklahoma State and Tennessee are sitting on the bubble to make it to March Madness
We are now just under six weeks away from Selection Sunday, so the pressure is starting to mount on teams that are trying to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee and secure a spot in the field of 68. The bubble is still quite large at this time of year, but will shrink as March approaches.
In this space every week, I'll take a look at a selection of teams on the bubble and talk about their prospects going forward.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Nobody had a better week that Georgia Tech did last week. The Yellow Jackets beat both Florida State and Notre Dame at home, the latter in dramatic fashion. Combine that with a New Year's Eve victory over North Carolina and few bubble teams can boast a better trio of wins.
However, there is a reason the Yellow Jackets are still on the bubble. They played a poor non-conference schedule, which ranks 268th. They also have home losses to Georgia and Ohio. Their record against teams in the top 200 of the RPI is a measly 7-8. Teams below .500 against that group rarely get at-large bids.
Fortunately, Georgia Tech plays in the ACC, so there will be plenty of chances to pick up quality wins and do so away from home, where the Yellow Jackets are just 2-5. At 13-8, Georgia Tech cannot afford a slump. It took what the Yellow Jackets did last week just to get on the radar. They could be one bad week from falling back off of it.
Indiana Hoosiers
Much was expected of the Hoosiers this year, and they didn't disappoint early. Wins over Kansas and North Carolina had Indiana as high as No. 2 in the polls. After that, their defense and ball handling was exposed and injuries started to set in. IU started 8-1, with that loss being at Fort Wayne, but since then, the Hoosiers are only 6-7 overall, 1-5 away from home.
There are some tough road games left for Indiana, although at this point, they all look tough. IU needs to pick up some quality wins, but also just some wins. Like Georgia Tech, the Hoosiers are also below .500 against the top 200 teams in the RPI.
Indiana will play three of its next four at home, including the big rivalry game with Purdue (the others are vs. Penn State and Minnesota at IU, and Sunday's game at Wisconsin on CBS). That is a vital stretch to the Hoosiers' season because after that, they finish with four of five on the road. They need to build themselves a cushion over the next two weeks or there is a good chance they could fall all the way to the NIT.
Marquette Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles weren't even really on the radar until they went into Creighton and won on Jan. 21, which was the first game that the Bluejays were without their star point guard Maurice Watson Jr. That was still an impressive win, but it was followed up by an even more impressive one at home over Villanova.
Those two wins give Marquette a chance to compete for a spot in the tournament, but they will need to show some consistency. The Golden Eagles got a little too high off of those wins and followed them with a home loss to Providence. However, that is the worst of their seven losses, and if that remains true six weeks from now, they will give themselves a good chance to get in the field.
Marquette has a schedule of opportunity. The Golden Eagles have home games left with Butler, Creighton and Xavier, all of which are great chances to resume build. They just need to make sure they take care of business in most of the other games too.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys celebrated the new year with a six-game losing streak, but have turned things around by winning four straight. Those include their two best wins of the season, which came at home over Arkansas and TCU. And therein lies the problem. Those teams are far from sure things from the tournament, although they are teams that OSU may be competing with on the bubble.
Those two wins are also the only ones Oklahoma State has against RPI top 50 teams. The Cowboys are 2-7 overall against that group. Teams can get into the tournament with a record that poor against top competition, but usually only if the wins are better than one OSU currently has. At some point, Oklahoma State is going to have to beat Baylor, Kansas or West Virginia - the only tournament locks in the Big 12 - at least once to feel any level of comfort on selection Sunday.
Tennessee Volunteers
I am hearing from a lot of Tennessee fans about how their team should be considered a tournament team now, or at least a contender for a spot. The Volunteers are 11-9. Actually, they are 12-9, but wins over non-Division I teams do not count in the tournament selection and seeding process, and the Vols beat Chaminade in the Maui Invitational.
That is an overall record that just isn't going to cut it. The committee has only given an at-large bid to one team that finished less than four games above .500 in the 24 years that I have been tracking the data. That team was Georgia in 2001, which was such an extreme example that no team will ever be able to be compared to it. I don't even consider teams that are less than four games over .500 when I'm doing brackets, so the Volunteers aren't even currently on my board.
So, Tennessee still has plenty of work to do. It's going to take more than a home win over Kentucky for the Vols to impress the committee, even if they can get their record up to snuff. They also beat Kansas State and Georgia Tech, two bubble teams, at home, so that can help some. It would really help if they could beat one of the better SEC teams away from home. Still, unless their current three-game winning streak extends to five, there isn't much to see here.
















