The United States of College Basketball: Top program in each state

Today, right here, we're introducing a new atlas for college hoops.

It's a proud country, a diversified realm, one almost as cool -- and battle-beaten -- as Westeros. Behold below: The United States of College Basketball.

We're in the midst of a three-part end-of-summer series that's looking at the state of the union, where all college basketball programs are right now -- and where they're headed. The major factors in this equation ...

Is the coaching situation solid?

What kind of young players are enrolled now?

Is recruiting headed in the right direction or not?

Throw in facilities, which schools are putting money into bettering their athletic compounds, and we've been able to identify and project the programs with the most impetus heading into the next five years. My colleagues -- Gary Parrish, Chip Patterson and Sam Vecenie -- and I discussed our lists in detail. In all, we're determining out three things this week:

The 15 programs best positioned to succeed over the next five years.
The program best positioned to succeed in each state over the next five years.
The 10 states best positioned to have the best basketball over the next five years. (Coming Friday.)

Now, the map. A beautiful, colorful country of college basketball.

One nation. Under basketball. With tournaments and madness for all.

[Bigger map: Click here to enlarge image.]

Now, how we came to each program representing its respective state.

Alabama: Auburn Tigers

Outlook: Auburn beats out the only real in-state challenger in Alabama. Behind Bruce Pearl, the Tigers' program is clearly undergoing a rejuvenation. The tricky part here that made us pause: If Auburn is NCAA Tournament-good for the next two seasons, would Pearl take a job somewhere else? It's certainly possible, and if that happened, Alabama would presumably have the leg up. But by a narrow margin, we think Auburn is best-positioned for the next five seasons.

Alaska: Alaska Anchorage Seawolves

Outlook: Well, here's the one program on this list with an asterisk. Alaska is the only state without a D-I hoops program. (Anchorage is Division II, so we didn't include it on our map.) But it gets a mention here, as it's easily the most important men's basketball program in the Frontier State. It also has among the best logos in all of college athletics. Hey, why can't we get the Seawolves into the Big Sky? Alaska Anchorage has also long been the host for the annual Great Alaska Shootout.

Arizona: Arizona Wildcats

Outlook: Obvious pick here, as Sean Miller is sitting at the table with Coach K and Calipari when it comes to recruiting on the national level. Arizona State could become something of a power in the state in the next three years under Bobby Hurley, but we've gotta see it develop. Arizona finished fourth in our top 15 programs overall for the next five years.

Arkansas: Arkansas Razorbacks

Outlook: You'll notice with about half of these states, if not a little more, that the representative is quite clear. There's simply no other school in Arkansas that's anywhere near where the Razorbacks are at -- and that's even during a time when Arkansas isn't near the peak of its powers. Still, Mike Anderson's program is No. 1 with a bullet in the Natural State.

California: UCLA Bruins

Outlook: California is an interesting one. Yes, Steve Alford's been to the NCAA Tournament in both his years at UCLA, and the recruiting is going very well. But there's no guarantee the Bruins are the best program in the Golden State by 2020. What Cuonzo Martin is doing at Cal is worth monitoring. (Cal will almost surely be better than UCLA in 2015-16.) Elsewhere, Stanford, San Diego State (uh, we'll see?) and St. Mary's have decent outlooks but nothing on the level of Cal and UCLA.

Colorado: Colorado Buffaloes

Outlook: Tad Boyle is a tremendous coach, and the Buffs' only real in-state contender here is Colorado State. CSU has done well under Larry Eustachy, but it's hard to pick against a Pac-12 school with a well-rounded coach who will probably make more NCAA Tournaments than not.

Connecticut: UConn Huskies

Outlook: You know it. UConn outpaces all in-state schools by miles. The recruiting has been very good as of late, too. Will UConn be able to climb and stay atop the American for the next few years? The biggest Connecticut competition here is the school's women's team, which in many pockets of the Nutmeg State has more frenzied supporters than the men. Kevin Ollie's tenure as head coach is one to keep an eye on. Will he be there in two years, let alone five? At this stage of his life, the NBA is still/always a looming possibility.

Delaware: Delaware Blue Hens

Outlook: It's between the Blue Hens and the Hornets of Delaware State, who have gone more than a decade since their last NCAA Tournament. Delaware has been coached by Monte Ross since 2006-07. Fun fact: Delaware has the lowest highest point, geologically speaking, in the United States.

District of Columbia: Georgetown Hoyas

Outlook: Our nation's capital is home to four Division I schools: Georgetown, George Washington, American and Howard. The Hoyas are the simple pick here, though it's fair to note that GW's been an undeniable improvement under Mike Lonergan in the past four seasons.

Florida: Florida Gators

Outlook: The fight for Florida is among the closest calls in the 50 states. Of our four writers, one took Miami, one took Florida State and two narrowly took UF, which hired Mike White this offseason. Given the optimism behind White, the fact Florida is considered a top-20 job nationally (even post-Billy Donovan) and the Gators getting upgrades to campus facilities, they narrowly beat out the other two regimes. In-state battles for talent could get crazy in the next five years, as the staffs at all of these schools are very good.

Georgia: Georgia Bulldogs

Outlook: Given the talent that comes out of this state, Georgia's schools should clearly be doing better. Brian Gregory's Yellow Jackets at Georgia Tech were beat out by Mark Fox's Bulldog program, but it wasn't exactly a rousing defeat. Heck, Georgia State just had the best year for any Georgia-based hoops program in a while, but we think the Dawgs stand to prosper the best by 2020.

Hawaii: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Outlook: Hawaii: One of five states on this list with just one Division I team eligible for consideration. Given there are 351 teams in D-I, it's amazing six states (including Alaska) only offer up 1.4 percent of the field.

Idaho: Boise State Broncos

Outlook: We think Leon Rice will follow in the path of one of his best friends, Mark Few, and permanently make his mark with the Broncos. Boise State is one of the most entertaining teams to watch these days, too.

Illinois: Illinois Fighting Illinois

Outlook: Not an automatic here. If Illinois stumbles -- and this is certainly possible -- in the season ahead, how long will John Groce's leash be? If Groce is no longer with the Illini by 2017, and Chris Collins is coming into his own at Northwestern ... maybe? But ultimately Illinois, at its best, can be a top-20 program in the nation. It's just not there right now. We're playing the odds and going with the most powerful program in the state. Side note: Bradley and Illinois State could flash nationally in the coming three seasons.

Indiana: Indiana Hoosiers

Outlook: Notre Dame has consistently been relevant under Mike Brey, who will almost certainly retire as the Irish's head coach one day. But Indiana has to be the pick. Either Tom Crean gets it rolling again, or he's pushed out -- and then it's the Indiana job. It won't be facing sanctions, like it was when Crean took it, and so if anyone is to replace Crean, it will be a big-time name. Basically the only time you could've ever done this kind of 50-programs-in-50-states project and not clearly had IU as Indiana's delegate would've been in 2009/2010 ... and even then it would've been tough not to pick the Hoosiers. Butler and Purdue are both on the upswing too. Good times for Indiana basketball -- as it should always be.

Iowa: Iowa State Cyclones

Outlook: The Hawkeye State has four programs: ISU, Iowa, Northern Iowa and Drake. Drake wasn't up for discussion, but the other three made for a hard choice. At its best, Iowa State is better than Iowa, and UNI -- while very good right now -- maybe it loses Ben Jacobson to a bigger job next season, or the one after that. That's why it's so hard for schools outside of consistent multi-bid conferences to really vie for plenipotentiary duty. Given the state of ISU's program right now, and how good we think Steve Prohm is, the Cyclones win out a close race.

Kansas: Kansas Jayhawks

Outlook: Somehow, the state of Kansas has only produced three Division I programs. This is among the five or six absolute no-brainers on the map, but what's undeniable: Wichita State is second-in-command. Kansas State is a decided third at the moment. So long as Gregg Marshall is coaching in Wichita, the KU-->WSU-->K-State power rankings are likely to stay. My question: If I put the number of Big 12 regular-season titles Bill Self wins in the next five seasons at 4.5, are you taking the over or the under?

Kentucky: Kentucky Wildcats

Outlook: Louisville is one heck of a rival for the Wildcats, but you know this is Kentucky all the way. John Calipari, as I've said/written myriad times in the past three years, is the perfect coach for the perfect program at the perfect time. There has never been a better marriage in the history of college basketball than the timing of Cal to Kentucky. As for the smaller schools, Northern Kentucky, Murray State and Western Kentucky are all strong candidates to make multiple NCAA Tournaments in the next five seasons.

Louisiana: LSU Tigers

Outlook: There are a dozen D-I programs nesting in Louisiana, but LSU is the best of them right now. As it should be. The belief in college hoops circles is that LSU arguably the most underachieving program of the past 30 years. For many, especially those well-versed in SEC territory, LSU should be making the NCAA Tournament four out of every five years. Just hasn't been the case. But now LSU has Ben Simmons on campus, and he could be the No. 1 pick in next June's draft. Johnny Jones, this is your moment.

Maine: Maine Black Bears

Outlook: Originating from the hamlet of Orono, the Black Bears are much more known for hockey than hoops, but don't be shocked if Bob Walsh, who won three games last season, his first at Maine, reaches the NCAA Tournament by 2018. Maine has never played in a Big Dance.

Maryland: Maryland Terrapins

Outlook: Mark Turgeon is now coaching and recruiting at the level many believed he was capable of when Maryland hired him in 2011. The Terps finished No. 12 in our projection of the 15 best programs from now through 2020.

Massachusetts: UMass Minutemen

Outlook: The Codfish State (yes, the Codfish State), offers up a few schools who could wrangle for official logo duties. UMass, Harvard's been so good as of late. Boston College when it's really going is probably the best in the state. And of course there's Holy Cross, baby! We opt for Derek Kellogg's outlook with the Minutemen, but are quick to say that this state is among the foggiest to project of any.

Michigan: Michigan State Spartans

Outlook: Yes, Michigan State beating out Michigan. Was there a tighter race between two powerhouses? Nope. Wolverines fans won't love it, but in the end we think Tom Izzo's a little bit better than John Beilein as a coach (different styles, for sure, and Beilein is great, absolutely) and we think Izzo will land just a few bigger recruits over the next five seasons. The Spartans landing 2016 five-star power forward Miles Bridges would be a biggie ... if it happens.

Minnesota: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Outlook: Amazing that a state as big as Minnesota only has one school in Division I for basketball. So the Golden Gophers win by default here, though we'll add that Richard Pitino could turn Minnesota into a top-30 program in the next three years.

Mississippi: Mississippi State Bulldogs

Outlook: Andy Kennedy has done more at Ole Miss than was ever expected. And now the school is finally getting one of the doddering arenas in major-conference basketball a total makeover/rebuild. But: Ben Howland. Within two months of him being on campus, MSU landed 2015 five-star guard Malik Newman. This state belongs to Howland until he disproves the fact he's a terrific tactician and feared recruiter.

Missouri: Missouri Tigers

Outlook: As a state, Missouri is not that strong on college hoops programs. And the Kim Anderson era is not inspiring Tigers fans, no not at all. But the Tigers have to be the pick by default here. Though Missouri State and Southeast Missouri State are prime contenders to be players in their respective leagues. The state of Saint Louis hoops is interesting. Feels like the program is at a crossroads right now. Will it trend back up in the next two years under Jim Crews? The Billikens won 11 games last season.

Montana: Montana Grizzlies

Outlook: I've visited, I don't know, maybe 30 of the 50 states? The one place I haven't been to that I want to see most: Montana. It's Spanish for mountain! State slogan: The Last Best Place. Modestly arrogant! It is the fourth-largest state by land mass in the country. Just a huge slab of territory. Fascinating. Oh, right: The Grizzlies are the pick here.

Nebraska: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Outlook: I'll come out and say it: Creighton was my choice. But I was out-voted here by my colleagues. It's a close call, but given the terrific facilities at Nebraska, and the recent turnaround, it's reasonable to go with Tim Miles' program. Miles has won everywhere he's been, though last season was a trainwreck. Let's see how he recovers. Ultimately, will Nebraska be better-positioned in the Big Ten than Creighton in the Big East? Definitely a lot of room for debate.

Nevada: UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Outlook: It would take about 72 things to fall into place to have a world where Nevada earned an upper hand on UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels, due to location, history, occasional talent right there in the conurbation, are the clear-cut pick here.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire Wildcats

Outlook: New Hampshire basketball: It's basically Matt Bonner and nothing else. UNH has never made the NCAAs, and the last time Dartmouth went, Eisenhower was in the White House. Looking at the state of the Ivy League, we determined UNH has a better shot at more success through 2020 than the Big Green.

New Jersey: Seton Hall Pirates

Outlook: Going to be painfully blunt here: New Jersey and its college basketball situation is in much worse shape than it has any business being, especially given the talent the state produces. Seton Hall was our pick, and we made it with our eyes closed. Princeton isn't on the precipice of an Ivy overthrow; Rutgers is outclassed in a major way in Big Ten hoops; NJIT finally just joined a league; St. Peter's, Fairleigh Dickinson, Rider and Monmouth don't have the pedigree to be atop the Garden State pedestal. So we go with Seton Hall, which could realistically fire its head coach come March.

New Mexico: New Mexico Lobos

Outlook: UNM and New Mexico State are the only two D-I schools in play here, and it's a close call. We picked the Lobos because the staff is really good, it's the better school in a better conference, and it has the capability of recruiting an NBA-level player every so often. We aren't sleeping on NMSU at all; Marvin Menzies has practically become governor of the WAC. Lobos are a narrow victor here.

New York: Syracuse Orange

Outlook: Because Syracuse has its coach-in-waiting, and because we don't know what St. John's will become under Chris Mullin, the Orange make for the natural delegate here. The state of New York has so many programs, many of the small but proud schools. Syracuse has spent who knows how much in marketing over the past decade billing itself as "New York's College Team." In college hoops, yes, it was and is and will remain to be true.

North Carolina: Duke Blue Devils

Outlook: The battle in North Carolina is going to get interesting once Mike Krzyzewski decides to retire -- whenever that is. We don't think it happens by 2020, but it will almost certainly happen within the five years after that. Alas, we're on a five-year window here, and Duke has to be the pick. UNC could be pummeled with NCAA sanctions. NC State is not on Duke's level, and neither is Wake, though expect Wake Forest to make big strides in the next three seasons under Danny Manning. By the way, Davidson is also well-positioned to remain very good. This is such a strong state for hoops.

North Dakota: North Dakota State Bison

Outlook: Say it with me: Bye-zun! Yes, NDSU beats out the currently moniker-less University of North Dakota. (Come on, Nodaks! Roughriders, Sundogs and North Stars are all OK; do not go with Fighting Hawks, please. Still forever partial to the Snow Dogs or Badlanders. Where was I ... oh, right ... ) Given what NDSU has achieved, we project them more likely to succeed in the next five years than the to-be-renamed UND.

Ohio: Ohio State Buckeyes

Outlook: Xavier and Cincy put up a good fight, but Thad Matta's probably due to cycle back in as an elite recruiter. Ohio State is one of the 15 best jobs in the country, for sure. The Buckeyes will have many years ahead under Matta. There can be no other choice here but tOSU.

Oklahoma: Oklahoma Sooners

Outlook: Lon Kruger isn't an elite recruiter, but he gets enough to the point where Oklahoma is now entering the 2015-16 season as a Final Four contender. Kruger has had success everywhere he's gone, has taken more programs to the NCAA Tournament than any coach ever, so yeah, Oklahoma is definitely in better shape right now than Oklahoma State, which is a program whose fans would argue is the better one historically. Did you catch how a former OSU player is suing the coach over alleged psychotropic drug use, among other things?

Oregon: Oregon Ducks

Outlook: I think this one is going to be wind up being very close come 2019. Some believe Dana Altman shouldn't even be coaching at Oregon after the rape scandal of 2014. Nevertheless, Altman, who's won more than 530 games in his career (that number surprise you, by chance?) still has Oregon moving forward. Wayne Tinkle could get Oregon State back on track, I do believe that, given Nike ties and what Altman's set the program up to do on the court, the Ducks are the pick.

Pennsylvania: Villanova Wildcats

Outlook: In sum: Villanova has a better chance to succeed in the Big East than Pittsburgh does in the ACC and/or Temple does in the American. It's also feeling like Jay Wright is settled in for the long haul with the program. He is Villanova basketball now, and college hoops overall feels better when you see Nova doing well. Pennsylvania, though: A very good state for college hoops. It goes beyond the Big 5 in Philly. Robert Morris has ascended under Andy Toole, and Bucknell is almost always near the Patriot League's ceiling.

Rhode Island: Providence Friars

Outlook: Ed Cooley is commanding PC to a resurgence. Rhode Island has a very promising year ahead, but will Dan Hurley leave URI in the next one or two years for a bigger job? We think that's very possible, while Cooley's seemingly set in for many years ahead at PC. The Friars are the biggest program in the smallest state.

South Carolina: South Carolina Gamecocks

Outlook: In theory we could've gone with Wofford here. But we're trusting Frank Martin to find third, and then fourth, gear with the Gamecocks over the next two seasons. Clemson is by no means commanding us to pick them in this spot, though it's certainly plausible the Tigers, Gamecocks and Terriers (yep, Wofford! Mike Young is a great mid-major coach) bob in and out of the top spot over the next five years.

South Dakota: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Outlook: Scott Nagy will have the Jackrabbits dancing again very soon, perhaps as early as March 2016. The University of South Dakota is still lagging behind SDSU in the D-I chase.

Tennessee: Vanderbilt Commodores

Outlook: Here's the reality of this situation: I wanted to go with Belmont, but there was no shot my colleagues were agreeing with me here. Yet Rick Byrd's Belmont program is the most stable of any Tennessee-based one at the moment. Vandy is the pick because Kevin Stallings, after a couple of rocky seasons, could be headed toward some bright times. Memphis is year-to-year at this point with Pastner, and let's see what Rick Barnes does at Tennessee in the autumn of his career. That Vols job has been hexed since about 2009.

Texas: Texas Longhorns

Outlook: Shaka Smart to Texas? The easy answer is Texas. And now he'll presumably be getting an athletic director who knows how to do the job. What the Longhorns men's basketball program becomes in the next five years under Smart will be really alluring to track.

Utah: BYU Cougars

Outlook: If Michigan vs. Michigan State was the closest call between two clear-cut alphas at the top in one state, then BYU-Utah was second-hardest. Utah isn't winning for two reasons: Larry Krystkowiak, who has NBA ties, is no sure thing to be at Utah come 2020. We're pretty confident Dave Rose isn't leaving BYU anytime soon, so there's a smidge more stability there. Plus, Utah's in the tougher league, and odds are BYU is able to navigate its way -- with older players -- to the NCAAs than the Utes. But it's really close. Really, really close.

Vermont: Vermont Catamounts

Outlook: One of the best nicknames in the game. Vermont's only D-I team is right there in the state's biggest city, Burlington, which also happens to be one of the best small-town college towns (if you get what I mean) in the country.

Virginia: Virginia Cavaliers

Outlook: Fairly obvious pick here, but what's kind of incredible is this would not have been the case whatsoever five years ago. Tony Bennett has assembled a program that's distinctly his own and near-impossible to duplicate at any other level. As for the rest of the state: Va. Tech, VCU, Richmond and George Mason are very unpredictable over the next five seasons.

Washington: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Outlook: It kills Washington fans to know that this isn't even close. Gonzaga is an auto 25-win team every season, and if this program ever fails to reach the Big Dance under Mark Few, know that someone has broken the mainframe of the Matrix. On the flip side: Does Ernie Kent take Washington State to an NCAA Tournament?

West Virginia: West Virginia Mountaineers

Outlook: West Virginia is better than Marshall. You know it, I know it, Bob Huggins knows it, and Dan D'Antoni absolutely knows it, too.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin Badgers

Outlook: If Bo Ryan retires after this season (I don't think that's happening), is Wisconsin for sure a better program through 2020 than Marquette? I can't promise it will be, but we're taking the "Baaa-jers" here because we think Ryan sticks it out a few more years, and if Greg Gard takes over, then Wisconsin could conceivably still outpace the Golden Eagles.

Wyoming: Wyoming Cowboys

Outlook: The final state and school stands all alone, as the Pokes are the only ones playing D-I hoops in the Equality State. Their arena is also the highest one above sea level, you might have heard.