Big Ten East win total picks: Can Harbaugh, Michigan meet expectations?
How will the teams in the Big Ten's most powerful division fare in 2016?
By
Tom Fornelli
•
10 min read
When the Big Ten originally expanded to 12 teams, it broke up into two divisions with competitive balance in mind, which gifted all of us with the Legends and Leaders Divisions. When the conference expanded again -- adding Maryland and Rutgers -- it realigned once again, and decided it was tired of being made fun of for having such silly division names (OK there were other reasons too).
Instead, the conference did the logical thing, and went with geography.
Through the first couple of seasons of the new divisions, there has been one division that's clearly been the stronger of the two: the Big Ten East.
That doesn't look like it's going to change in 2016, as both Ohio State and Michigan State are once again in position to compete for the conference title, Michigan seems well on its way to being a conference power yet again, and even Penn State may be ready to emerge out from under recent NCAA penalties.
Now, while we can't predict the future, what we can do is look at the win totals given to each team in the division, set by Vegas Insider, and try to figure out which teams are likely to exceed expectations, and which ones will probably fall a bit short.
Michigan, 10 (Over -110, Under -110): The Wolverines went 10-3 in Jim Harbaugh's first season in 2015, and now they have a higher win total than any other team in the Big Ten. Higher than both Ohio State and Michigan State -- the two schools that have won the last three conference titles. Michigan, meanwhile, hasn't won even a share of the Big Ten crown since 2004.
So should we expect Michigan to get more than 10 wins in 2016?
I don't think so. It's not that I don't believe Michigan is going to be a good team once again -- I'm not expecting the significant step back we saw in Brady Hoke's second season -- it's just that asking for 11 wins seems just a bit too much.
The first seven games of the season are manageable for the Wolverines. Six of those games will be at home, with the toughest being games against Penn State and Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. So a 7-0 start to the season isn't a ridiculous notion. It's just, after that, things get a bit more difficult.
It's not just that the Wolverines will have to play defending West champion Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. It's that all three of those games will come on the road. While Michigan lost only one game on the road last season (the 24-17 season opener against Utah), it struggled against competition it probably shouldn't have -- beating Minnesota by three points and needing two overtimes to dispatch Indiana.
To reach 11 wins on the season, the Wolverines would have to go at least 2-1 in those three games, without screwing up anywhere else. While that's possible, it's more likely that won't happen. Pick: Under
Ohio State, 9.5 (Over +105, Under -125): A quick history lesson for you here. Since Urban Meyer came to Ohio State, the Buckeyes have won at least 12 games in all four of his seasons. The worst season Ohio State under Meyer was a 12-2 year in 2012.
So now we enter 2016 and the Buckeye win total is set at ... 9.5? With more value on the over?
Thanks?
Listen, I get why there are some doubts about the Buckeyes this season. If you watched the NFL Draft in April, it felt like half the 2015 team had its name called by NFL teams over the course of three days, and you can't help but wonder how Ohio State is going to replace all those guys. Well, have you ever looked at how Ohio State recruits?
Under Meyer, the Buckeyes have routinely finished in the top five nationally in recruiting rankings, and always at the top of the Big Ten. Yes, they've lost a lot of talent, but they also have plenty of talent behind it ready to step in. Plus, one of the players that does return just happens to play the most important position on the field. So it's not like Urban has to break in a new quarterback.
Now, the schedule isn't very easy. The Buckeyes will play Oklahoma on the road in non-conference, and after a soft start in the Big Ten with Rutgers and Indiana at home, they'll go on the road to face Wisconsin and Penn State in consecutive weeks. They also finish the season with Michigan State on the road and Michigan at home.
But this is still Ohio State. This is still a team that wins 12 games every year, and has more talent than everybody else in the conference. If you're telling me there's more value in Ohio State winning 10 games this season than there is nine, well, it seems like an obvious choice to me. Pick: Over
Michigan State, 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110): Speaking of teams that Vegas seems to be overreacting to, we have Michigan State. Here's another history lesson for you: since 2010 the Spartans have won at least 11 games in five of six seasons. The one failure was in 2012 when Sparty went 7-6.
This season expectations are lowered because, while Michigan State didn't lose as much as Ohio State, it still lost quite a bit, and the general public isn't as confident in Michigan State's ability to just reload like it is with Ohio State. Michigan State also lost its quarterback, putting things further in question.
All of that being said, we know that Michigan State will still be very good on defense. The Spartans have lost a lot of their best defensive players over the years, and they haven't had trouble replacing them. The offense is certainly a bigger question mark.
When it comes to the schedule, Michigan State doesn't have it easy, but I've seen far more difficult paths. The non-conference slate includes Notre Dame on the road and BYU in East Lansing. The cross-divisional draw brings both Wisconsin and Northwestern, as well as Illinois, but only Illinois is on the road.
In fact, outside of the regular season finale at Penn State, Michigan State's Big Ten road schedule is very manageable.
So even if asking Michigan State to win 11 games yet again might be a bit too much, asking for eight seems rather attainable. Pick: Over
Penn State, 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110): James Franklin's first two seasons at Penn State have been rather meh. The Nittany Lions have gone 7-6 in each of his two seasons, but it did that while still suffering from the effects of scholarship limits. This was a very young team the last two seasons, and one playing behind a makeshift offensive line most of that time.
Now, Franklin enters his third season in Happy Valley, and the expectations at Penn State are a bit higher.
They should be.
While I'm not buying into the idea that Penn State will challenge any of the three top teams in the division in 2016, I do believe we're going to see a better team than we have in recent years. I also believe that will be reflected in the team's record.
Penn State has both Pitt and Temple in non-conference play, and I'm guessing the Nittany Lions go at least 1-1 in those games, and 2-1 overall. Then they open Big Ten play with Michigan on the road, which will be difficult, so a 2-2 start is very likely. The rest of the schedule isn't that bad, though.
Aside from Michigan, Penn State's conference road games are Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers, all of which are very winnable contests. That means the Nittany Lions get both Ohio State and Michigan State at home. While I'm not saying they win either of those games, having them both in State College makes at least one upset far more likely.
So while they won't compete for a division title, I believe 8-4 is a lot more likely than 6-6 is. Pick: Over
Indiana, 4.5 (Over -110, Under -110): The Hoosiers went 6-7 last year, playing in their first bowl game since 2007, but they only went 2-6 in Big Ten play. It's that conference record that I believe justifies the win total being set at only 4.5, which also means that Indiana's performance in its non-conference slate is very important to how it will perform against that total.
Well, the Big Ten goes from an eight-game conference schedule to a nine-game slate in 2016. That gives Indiana one less game outside of the Big Ten, which is bad news.
The good news is those three games are against FIU, Ball State and Wake Forest! It's very possible that the Hoosiers get off to a 3-0 start to the season, meaning they'd only have to go 2-7 in conference play to reach that over. Can they?
Purdue comes to Bloomington this season, so there's one. Now we're at four, and only need one more. Hmm ... well, Indiana beat Maryland 47-28 at Maryland last season, and they get the Terps at home this season. That certainly seems like a possible win, as do home dates with Nebraska and Penn State. I wouldn't be surprised if Indiana beat either Rutgers or Northwestern on the road, either.
So, yeah, I'm not going to predict great things for Indiana, but five wins seems doable. Pick: Over
Maryland, 4.5 (Over +110, Under -130): Maryland was so bad last season. So bad. It was 3-9 overall, and 1-7 in conference play, being out-scored by an average of 13 points per game in conference play. You know what, though? It really wasn't as bad as it looked.
While the Terps got worked over by Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan like you'd expect them to, they only went 1-4 in their other conference games, but they were out-scored by only an average of 7.6 points in those games.
They also did this with one of the worst turnover margins (-18) in the entire country. Turnovers are terrible, but history shows that they've also more to do with luck than skill, and the odds are that thing won't be nearly as bad in 2016, which will help Maryland tremendously.
The Terps also have three very winnable non-conference games in Howard, FIU and UCF. They're also "lucky" to have most of the Big Ten games they probably wouldn't win anyway on the road. Meanwhile, they have a manageable home slate featuring Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State and Rutgers. They're not going to beat Michigan State and Ohio State -- I don't think, anyway -- but Purdue, Minnesota and Rutgers could all be victories.
So combine all that with the value on the over here, and I see a lot more reasons to go over than under. Pick: Over
Rutgers, 4.5 (Over -125, Under +105): The Knights went 4-8 last year, with a 1-7 mark in Big Ten play, so the question we must figure out is whether or not Rutgers will be better this year than it was in 2015. I'm really not all that confident.
Rutgers opens its schedule with a road trip to Washington before returning home for Howard and New Mexico. So a 2-1 start to the season before conference play is the best we can realistically hope for, meaning the Knights would have to go 3-6 in conference play to reach the over here.
I don't know where those three wins come from.
Big Ten play opens with Iowa, at Ohio State, and Michigan. Even with two of those games in New Jersey, I can't imagine Rutgers winning any of them, though 1-2 isn't totally absurd, I just think the Knights are now 2-4.
Illinois, at Minnesota and Indiana is a much easier stretch, but Minnesota will be tough to beat on the road, and Indiana is always difficult to keep pace with. So 2-1 is possible here, but I'm leaning 1-2.
Let's say the Knights do go 2-1 in that stretch, and enter the final three games of the season with a 4-5 mark. They then play Michigan State on the road, which I'm thinking is a loss. Penn State comes to Piscataway the next week, and I believe that's a loss too. So now Rutgers is finishing the season with Maryland on the road, and I believe Maryland will be a better team than Rutgers in 2016.
So while it certainly isn't impossible -- games against Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Penn State and Maryland will determine how things go -- with the extra value on the under, when something is as much of a coinflip as this might be, I'll take the value. Pick: Under
