If the Big 12 doesn't expand, there's no bigger loser than Houston

News that Oklahoma is changing its mind on Big 12 expansion hurts the Cougars the most

Surprise, surprise. Big 12 expansion has apparently hit a major snag as one of its biggest advocates, Oklahoma president David Boren, is now reportedly reversing field. And there would be no bigger loser in this situation than Houston.

Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated reports Boren "has come full circle on his expansion beliefs, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already muddled Big 12 expansion exploration process."

It would appear that Boren's new stance reflects the views of OU's Board of Regents, who, per Thamel, are not in favor of expansion. This would be a critical fact, as Boren's change of heart reportedly "came in part because he has trouble in his own backyard." Though Boren has been vocal about his expansion beliefs, he still has bosses to please -- bosses whose beliefs may be different from his own.

For the record, Boren has stated officially he doesn't "know where the speculation came from, but Oklahoma has not yet taken a position on expansion."

There's a lot to unpack in Thamel's piece, from the Big 12's future to Boren's own, but a key takeaway is that Houston's worst-case scenario could be realized if expansion is tabled again or otherwise shot down completely.

For the sake of conversation, let's say the conference does not expand. That's all that Houston really cares about.

Thamel notes that "Houston and Cincinnati are still the perceived leaders behind the scenes," but the clear hurdle for the Cougars would be getting 8 of 10 votes necessary for membership. Many Big 12 programs would be competing head-to-head with Houston and may not want the possibility of falling behind.

Still, if Houston remains an expansion favorite, it's losing out on a ton of long-term money and exposure if the Big 12 opts not to expand.

CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd reported back in June that there was upwards of $1 billion on the table if the Big 12 expanded. Even if that amount was negotiated down between the Big 12 and its television partners ESPN and Fox, it would represent a dramatic increase from what Houston receives right now in the AAC in television contracts and bowl payouts.

Then there's the whole Tom Herman thing.

There is not a more coveted coach in this year's carousel than Herman. With every big-time job that becomes available, Herman's name is going to be mentioned almost immediately. That's already the case with LSU, which fired Les Miles over the weekend. Herman is the betting favorite to succeed Miles in Baton Rouge.

The point being, the timing of Thamel's piece is terrible for a program that wants to elevate its national status and keep its coach. Herman stands to get a $5 million bonus if Houston is promoted to a Power Five conference. No promotion, no bonus. No bonus, and it may be tough to keep Herman from taking a bigger job elsewhere.

None of this is to say Houston would fall into irrelevancy. The Cougars program has shown it is capable of hiring great coaches -- Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin and now Herman -- and playing high-level football with college football's big boys. But the gap between Houston's desired outcome -- a Big 12 invite with Herman hanging around -- and worst-case scenario -- having neither -- is large.

If Thamel's report becomes reality, Houston's worst-case scenario currently seems more likely.