Spring Practice Watch: Breaking down FBS returning starter numbers
As more and more teams open their spring practices, here's a look at 2015's returning starter numbers -- and which ones stand out.
By
Jerry Hinnen
•
4 min read
Where college football is concerned, spring has very much sprung -- 47 of the 64 Power Five conference teams have either begun spring camp or will by the end of this week, with similar ratios across the Group of Five conferences as well.
This means it's time to start looking forward to the 2015 season in earnest, and there's no better place to do that than by looking at the first number -- rightly or wrongly -- most fans review when looking forward: returning starters. And helpfully, preview magazine stat-cruncher Phil Steele has compiled and ranked each FBS team's projected returning members of their first string, 1 through 127, from Appalachian State (20!) to South Alabama and UTSA (5!)*.
Here's 15 teams -- from most starters to least -- whose numbers and rankings stand out, and why:
1. Notre Dame (19 starters, tied No. 2 FBS): The Irish's swan dive to end the 2014 regular season may have been disappointing, but given that it both occurred in the middle of a freak rash of injuries -- injuries that offered younger players valuable experience -- and lowered expectations for this season, it might actually be a positive omen for 2015. (Now, about Everett Golson's torrid love affair with turning the ball over ...)
2. UCLA (18, tied No. 6): A season after they entered fall camp somewhat overrated, could the Bruins wind up coming into 2015 badly underrated? Yeah, they've lost Brett Hundley and Eric Kendricks, but they'll return virtually everybody else who saw the field for Jim Mora's team last season. (The problem? Those players didn't make the Bruins even as good as their 10-3 record.)
3. Tennessee (18, tied No. 6): Worth remembering: the Vols finally returned to the postseason in 2014 despite returning zero linemen on either side of the line of scrimmage, and not that many starters anywhere else, either. So their 2015 ceiling is ... how high, exactly?
4. Michigan (16, tied No. 17): Jim Harbaugh may or may not have a worthwhile starting quarterback on campus -- thus the potential transfer influx -- but the single thing Brady Hoke did inarguably well was recruit, and now many of those recruits are starting to come of age. If Harbaugh can find a quarterback and get more out of those recruits' potential, Michigan could get back to respectability in a hurry.
5. Western Michigan (16, tied No. 17). On the other side of the Mitten State, P.J. Fleck's Broncos are as loaded as any non-Northern Illinois MAC squad has been in years and could very well be the preseason league favorite. Great news for WMU fans ... except for the part where a MAC title this year might also cost them Fleck's services for next year.
6. Boise State (16, tied No. 17). The reigning Mountain West champion also just-so-happens to return more starters than any other team in the conference. (None of those starters are Jay Ajayi or Grant Hedrick, though.)
7. Ohio State (15, tied No. 29): Yeah, because that offense needed eight returning starters.
8. NC State (14, tied No. 42): Dave Doeren will have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but his Wolfpack do return nine starters to an offense that finished the season on a serious tear and ranked 24th in FBS in average yards per-carry. Pinball scores on their way to Raleigh?
9. TCU (14, tied No. 42): The Frogs will enter 2015 considered a short-list national title contender, and not without reason. (Said reason being "Gary Patterson coaching a heap-ton of offensive talent.") Still: only five returning defensive starters (none of whom made first- or second-team All-Big 12 a year ago) might be a cause for concern.
10. Georgia Tech (13, tied No. 58): Thirteen is not an impressive number, but it might be considering where those 13 are located: eight on a defense that struggled for much of 2014 but came on late; four on the offensive line, just a bit of a positive for a triple-option team; and one at quarterback, where Justin Thomas could be the preseason All-ACC first-team QB. Paul Johnson will probably take it.
11. Auburn (12, tied No. 79): It speaks to how much Gus Malzahn's offensive acumen is respected -- and how sharp new quarterback Jeremy Johnson has looked in limited action -- that the Tigers can return all of four offensive starters, field an utterly lousy 2014 defense, and still be considered an SEC contender. (Of course, a schedule that brings Alabama, Georgia, and both Mississippi schools to Jordan-Hare Stadium may also have something to do with it.)
12. South Carolina (12, tied No. 79): The good news: eight starters return to the Gamecocks' woeful defense, the second-worst in SEC play last season behind Texas A&M (and A&M didn't have the benefit of playing Vanderbilt). The bad news: there's only four starters back on an offense that was already good-but-not-carry-the-team-great.
13. Oregon State (11, tied No. 100): Per Steele's numbers, the Beavers have the widest disparity in offensive vs. defensive starters in all FBS, with nine first-stringers back on offense (though Sean Mannion's not one of them, of course) and just two on defense. (Which begs the question: how did Mike Riley take a defense that experienced and coach them to an 87th-place finish in FBS yards per-play allowed?)
14. Mississippi State (9, tied No. 121): Congratulations on your new $4 million extension, Dan Mullen! You have the fewest returning starters in the SEC and a cross-division road game at the two-time defending SEC East champions! Good luck!
15. Kansas (8, No. 126). After receiving a five-year, $12.5 million contract, Charlie Weis coached the Jayhawks to a 1-19 Big 12 record and left behind the fewest returning starters at any Power 5 program. Truly, his career has been the stuff of legend.
*Steele's numbers appeared in late January, so they could be off by a starter or even two.
