Entering the final day of July, the Mets' season appeared to be going nowhere, even though they were just three games out of first place in the National League East. With one of the majors' least productive offenses, they staggered to a 52-50 mark, but the Mets' fortunes changed on July 31 with the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes and a seven-game winning streak that began with a three-game sweep of the first-place Nationals.
Less than three months later, the Mets were crowned the National League champions, and they extended the World Series champion Royals to six games. Their trail to postseason glory was was not blazed by Cespedes alone, though he had a phenomenal impact. Starting pitching continued to be a strength, with Matt Harvey being particularly dominant over the regular season's final two months. Rookie callup Michael Conforto was a revelation. Also helping the offense to a dramatic turnaround were Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy and Travis d'Arnaud, all of whom experienced late-season power surges.
Cespedes and Murphy were key to the Mets' emergence, and Murphy left via free agency, while Cespedes opted to return on a three-year deal. Neil Walker will take over second base for Murphy, and from a Fantasy perspective, it's a lateral move. Bringing back Cespedes eases the need for more production from the rest of the lineup. The Mets could be better if David Wright, who performed well in spite of his spinal stenosis, can stay healthy. The addition of free agent shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera should help, as he could be an offensive upgrade over last season's combination of Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada.
Then again, the Mets could probably withstand a middling offense, given that their rotation could boast three top 20 starting pitchers in Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Rookie Steven Matz could be a must-start pitcher as well, and Bartolo Colon has some deep league appeal while he holds down the fifth starter's job until Zack Wheeler completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery. While the Mets don't have the deepest bullpen, they had last season's second-ranked Fantasy reliever in Jeurys Familia.
The Mets may need another perfect storm to reach the World Series again, but even with a relative lack of offseason activity, they have the pieces to contend. Their top three starting pitchers may all get drafted in Fantasy before any of their hitters, with the possible exception of Cespedes, but underrate their bats at your own risk. As many as seven of them could be strong contributors in standard mixed leagues.
2016 projected lineup
1. Curtis Granderson, RF
2. Neil Walker, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Yoenis Cespedes, CF
5. Lucas Duda, 1B
6. Travis d'Arnaud, C
7. Michael Conforto, LF
8. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
BENCH: Kevin Plawecki, C
BENCH: Wilmer Flores, 2B/SS
BENCH: Alejandro De Aza, OF
2016 projected rotation
1. Jacob deGrom, RHP
2. Matt Harvey, RHP
3. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
4. Steven Matz, LHP
5. Bartolo Colon, RHP
ALT: Logan Verrett, RHP
DL: Zack Wheeler, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. Jeurys Familia, RHP
2. Addison Reed, RHP
3. Hansel Robles, RHP
4. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
5. Jerry Blevins, LHP
Curtis Granderson bounced back from back-to-back disappointing seasons, finishing as a top 20 Fantasy outfielder in 2015. He became especially valuable in points leagues, where he tied Lorenzo Cain for 13th place in the points standings for outfielders. While Granderson had something of a power resurgence, what set him apart in points formats was his willingness to take a walk. He swung at pitches at the lowest rate of his career, which resulted in a career-high 91 walks. As the Mets' leadoff hitter, Granderson tied Mike Trout and Charlie Blackmon for the 16th-most plate appearances, and that's good for his points league appeal as well. He may not have the allure of a 30-homer threat or a speed demon, but Granderson should be fine as a No. 2 outfielder in standard mixed points leagues.
The degree to which Asdrubal Cabrera will be a bargain depends on which part of his 2015 season with the Rays made a bigger impression on your league-mates. Through mid-June, it looked like Cabrera might be done. At that point, he was batting .199 with minimal power, offering no sign of the rampage that was to come. Over the final three-and-a-half months of the season, Cabrera dramatically reduced his strikeout rate and started hitting the ball with more authority. No shortstop averaged more Fantasy points per plate appearance in the second half, but maybe that fact didn't register with your Draft Day adversaries. Cabrera could be among the most productive shortstops in 2016, but you probably won't need to target him until the late rounds.
It was just two years ago that Zack Wheeler was second to Harvey in the Mets' pecking order of starting pitchers. When Harvey required Tommy John surgery, Wheeler was nominally the ace, but that was before the emergence of Jacob deGrom. Wheeler himself was sidelined due to his own elbow ligament replacement procedure, and then Syndergaard and Matz overshadowed him as well. Now Wheeler is aiming for a June return, and though he may be somewhat forgotten by Fantasy owners, he's not a bad candidate to stash. Wheeler was still too wild in 2014, but he made strides in his strikeout and ground ball rates. If he can get back to that form by the second half of 2016, he will be a useful pitcher in standard mixed leagues.
Prospects Report
It's odd to think of a pitcher who started a World Series game as a prospect, but technically, Steven Matz still is one. His 9 percent whiff rate last season was merely ordinary, and he stranded an outrageous 88 percent of his baserunners, so Matz appeared to have overperformed in his six regular season starts. He may not be a bargain, but he still needs to be owned in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues.
Brandon Nimmo, a former first-round pick, has generally been considered a disappointment, but prior to the re-signing of Cespedes, it appeared his time in the majors might come soon. Now he is likely blocked from a 2016 promotion, other than for a proverbial cup of coffee. Nimmo hasn't put up good power numbers for an outfielder, but his high walk rate could eventually endear him to points league owners.
Like Nimmo, Dominic Smith is a former first-rounder who hasn't been burning a path to the majors, but he did show some growth in his power game in the Florida State League last season. The 20-year-old first baseman will advance to the Eastern League, but he is nowhere close to being a threat to Lucas Duda.
The Mets boast two shortstop prospects in Amed Rosario and Gavin Cecchini, though with the signing of Cabrera, neither one appears to have much of a shot to start in the majors this season. Rosario's 2015 stats aren't impressive, but then again, he had previously played all of seven games in full-season ball and was a 19-year-old playing in the Florida State League. He is a much more attractive option in dynasty leagues than Cecchini, though the latter shortstop will probably be the first one to make an impact in Fantasy, possibly as soon as 2017.
