Fantasy Baseball: Gauging the exit velocity leaders

Nelson Cruz, Mark Trumbo, Christian Yelich and David Ortiz have been mashing the ball. Chris Towers analyzes the top 10 exit velocity leaders.

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MLB's Statcast system has given us a lot more data over the last few years, and the most interesting bit we have at our disposal is the batted-ball exit velocity information. In short, this tells us how fast the ball comes off a batter's bat when he makes contact.

Of course, this information isn't perfect, obviously. Strength of competition, pitcher velocity and just good old-fashioned small-sample-size noise can impact these numbers, so we should take them with a grain of salt. Still, speaking generally, hitting the ball harder is better than the alternative, and batted-ball data gives us an opportunity to peek under the hood and see some of the component parts that lead to batter performance.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the top-10 in average batted-ball velocity as of Wednesday's games, to see who has been crushing it this season, and what it might mean.

No. 1 Cameron Rupp - 54 batted balls, 96.0 MPH Average Exit Velocity

This is the first of two extremely surprising inclusions, and it is worth noting that Rupp hits the ball harder when he puts it on the ground than when he hits it in the air, the only player on this list for whom that is true. Hitting the ball hard is important, but direction and angle matters just as much as speed, which helps explain some of Rupp's poor performance to this point. It's also worth noting that Rupp was much closer to the middle of the pack last season, so this probably isn't super meaningful. Sorry, Rupp fans.

No. 2 Nelson Cruz - 93 batted balls, 95.7 MPH Avg EV

Now this is one we can sink our teeth into. Cruz ranked sixth in baseball at 93.7 MPH last season, with a major tilt toward balls hit in the air, so his placement here isn't much of a surprise at all. Cruz, as one of the game's premier power hitters, makes a habit of hard contact, and despite concerns about his age, it doesn't seem as if his skill set has atrophied much. Cruz is not hitting as well as last season overall, but that was probably always going to be the case because his 30.3 HR/FB rate was a career high by a wide margin, and that number is much more in line with his career rates so far. Cruz has managed to stave off the aging curve yet again.

No. 3 Ryan Zimmerman - 94 batted balls, 95.1 MPH Avg EV

And here is the second of our unexpected leaders. Zimmerman was one of the best players in baseball at one point, but his skills have really fallen off as he has struggled to stay healthy into his 30's. He has taken yet another step back this season, hitting .239/.307/.396 through 34 games, with his ISO dropping from .217 to .157 since last season. Zimmerman actually posted a strong average exit velocity last season as well, at 92.1 MPH, but there appears to be one thing really holding Zimmerman back; infield flyballs. Zimmerman has already recorded five infield flyball outs this season, after having just four a year ago. This is one situation where how you hit the ball is just as important as how hard you hit it.

No. 4 Christian Yelich - 103 batted balls, 95.0 MPH Avg EV

Yelich has never had trouble hitting the ball hard. He averaged 92.1 MPH on his batted balls last season and 95.0 on balls hit in the air specifically. He has above average raw power; strength has never been his issue. However, his career high in homers is just nine, because despite how hard he hits the ball, Yelich doesn't hit it in the air very often. In fact, since making his debut in 2013, only Nori Aoki has hit a higher percentage of his batted balls on the ground than Yelich. Of course, that isn't necessarily a bad thing; hitting the ball hard on the ground and on a line is one way you can sustain a .366 BABIP in 1,628 plate appearances, the highest mark in baseball. However, it does put a cap on how much power you can hit for, and this is a tough hurdle to overcome. Yelich has made small moves in the right direction -- his 19.1 percent flyball rate is a career high -- but it's still hard to see him hitting more than 15 homers in any given season no matter how hard he hits it.

No. 5 Mark Trumbo - 95 batted balls, 95.0 MPH Avg EV

Trumbo is another player who was among the league leaders in this metric last season, so you shouldn't doubt his standing too much. Trumbo has big-time power, so this obviously doesn't come as any kind of surprise. Of course, the rest of what Trumbo is doing right now comes as a pretty major surprise, what with the .304 batting average and general offensive dominance. Trumbo has some regression coming, with a BABIP nearly 50 points higher than his career mark, and a career-high HR/FB rate of 25.0. Given how the rest of his career has gone, this is probably more like a hot streak than the new normal, so don't wed yourself to this version of Trumbo. He's a fine source of power, but he has historically struggled to do much more than that.

No. 6 Giancarlo Stanton - 74 batted balls, 94.9 MPH Avg EV

Well, at least Stanton is hitting the ball well when he does manage to make contact. That hasn't been particularly often this season, especially of late, as he has struck out in nine of his last 10 trips to the plate as of Wednesday's action. Stanton has looked absolutely lost at the plate lately, but that's nothing new. Stanton goes through stretches like this, including once already earlier this season when he hit .193 with only three homers in 15 games to open the season; he proceeded to sport a 1.557 OPS in his next 11 games. Stanton is a big dude, and his swing has plenty of holes and a lot moving parts, so it's easy for him to get out of whack, as he clearly is right now. However, he's still absolutely crushing the ball when he makes contact with it, and his history shows he is liable to bust out of this slump in a big way before long. If his owner is worried about Stanton's struggles, right now is the perfect time to swoop in with a buy-low offer.

No. 7 Domingo Santana - 60 batted balls, 94.8 MPH Avg EV

Santana has improved dramatically in this regard from last season, when he averaged just 87.8 MPH on 90 tracked batted balls. It hasn't amounted to much actual, tangible improvement, but Santana remains an enticing option because of the huge numbers he often put up in the minors. He has struggled to make an impact in the majors, mostly as a result of his inability to make consistent contact, especially against righties, who have held him to a .171 batting average with a 40.9 percent strikeout rate. At some point, it doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball, if you can't actually do it often enough. Santana's skill set remains tantalizing, but he's looking like a platoon player now, which limits his chances of actually hitting his upside.

No. 8 David Ortiz - 109 batted balls, 94.8 MPH Avg EV

What new can we say about David Ortiz at this point? That he can still do this at the age of 40 is a testament to his skills and work ethic, and I'm convinced he could still be an effective hitter for another five years or so. We're always worried about him falling off a cliff, and he always goes under-drafted as a result. And he always makes some Fantasy owners look like a genius.

No. 9 Miguel Sano - 82 batted balls, 94.8 MPH Avg EV

Sano hasn't lived up to expectations to this point, but at the very least, he is still showing off that plus-plus raw power. His struggles making contact have led to consistency issues, but he's heating up, and should still end up north of 30 homers when it's all said and done. In so many ways, he reminds me of Stanton, which is extremely high praise. He'll look lost for stretches, but I want to bet on him finding his way.

No. 10 Joc Pederson - 64 batted balls, 94.8 MPH Avg EV

I get the feeling Pederson is just going to be perpetually underrated. Many wrote him off after his abysmal second half of last season, but Pederson is once again just mashing the ball, sporting a .262/.380/.561 line after 39 games. Yes, strikeouts are always going to be an issue for him. However, Pederson walks a ton and has massive raw power that he combines with a high flyball rate. Batting average will be a concern and I'm still surprised he's not running more, but Pederson's power is a real plus skill, and all signs point to him being able to sustain it.