Week 16 Start 'Em and Sit 'Em: Todd Gurley to deliver a Fantasy title

Todd Gurley was a bust this season, but he will deliver at the right time for Fantasy owners in Week 16. Jamey Eisenberg says to trust Gurley with confidence in your Fantasy title game.

Week 16 Rankings: Standard | PPR

Congratulations. If you're still reading this column you are likely in the Fantasy championship game or in the semifinals if your league goes into Week 17.

And the only thing that matters is winning.

So don't be afraid to hope for a lucky break or pray for one more yard in the fourth quarter of a blowout game. You managed your Fantasy team to this point, and you want the satisfaction of a victory.

We hope you get it, and we also wish you a Happy Holidays. Thank you for sticking with us all season, and we want you to celebrate with a Fantasy title this week.

Editor's Note: Projections are provided by CBS Sports and not Jamey Eisenberg.

Start of the Week

Todd Gurley has been the biggest bust this year. There's no way to sugarcoat it. Based on where he was drafted compared to his production it's been vomit inducing.

But now, if you advanced this far despite Gurley, is his time to reward you. And he will, thanks to his matchup with the 49ers.

There's only been one week this season where a running back failed to score or gain 100 total yards against San Francisco, which was Week 1 against, you guessed it, Gurley. He was held to 17 carries for 47 yards and one catch for minus-5 yards, which set the tone for his bad year. But things have changed dramatically for the 49ers defense.

There have been 13 running backs to gain 100 total yards against San Francisco, and the 49ers have allowed 25 total touchdowns to the position. It's almost a fluke that Gurley had a bad game against them in Week 1, but that is likely more about him and his situation than anything else.

Dealing with a bad offensive line and poor quarterback play, Gurley has 241 carries for 778 yards (3.2 yards per carry) and five touchdowns and 36 catches for 270 yards in 14 games. By comparison, last year he had 229 carries for 1,106 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns and 21 catches for 188 yards in just 13 games.

But we can't worry about what happened this year, and we'll address his status for 2017 in the coming weeks once this season ends and the Rams get a new coach with Jeff Fisher gone. For this week, Gurley can be trusted.

The 49ers are that bad. And Gurley will deliver in a big way.

I'm starting Gurley over: Spencer Ware (vs. DEN), Mark Ingram (vs. TB), Doug Martin (at NO), Jay Ajayi (at BUF) and Thomas Rawls (vs. ARI)

Quarterback

Start 'Em

We had Roethlisberger as a sit last week because of his track record on the road, and he scored 17 Fantasy points at Cincinnati, which was actually better than his average away from Pittsburgh over the past three years (15.1 points). At home, however, Roethlisberger has averaged 29.8 Fantasy points over that span, and he should be excellent this week, especially if Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle) is out. In his last five games at home, Roethlisberger is averaging 327 passing yards a game with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he has at least 21 Fantasy points in each outing, with three games of at least 34 points. He scored 20 Fantasy points at Baltimore in Week 9, which was one of six quarterbacks with at least 20 points against the Ravens, and Roethlisberger will lead plenty of Fantasy owners to a title in this matchup.

Consider this my apology to Luck for doubting him last week at Minnesota when we called him the bust alert. Despite offensive line woes and being without Donte Moncrief (hamstring), Luck was excellent against the Vikings with 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. He scored 22 Fantasy points and has now scored at least 20 points in 10-of-13 games, including four in a row, and this should be another quality outing against the Raiders. Oakland has only allowed six quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points, but Luck is the No. 4 Fantasy quarterback on the season for a reason. He should be started in all leagues no matter the matchup, and he proved that last week with his performance at Minnesota. He also might get a nice bonus with Moncrief back in action.

Rivers has gone three games in a row with fewer than 20 Fantasy points, so he's due for a big game. Turnovers have been the biggest issue for him over that span, and if he was mistake free in each outing then he would have a streak of six games in a row with at least 20 points coming into this matchup. Luckily for Rivers, the Browns only have eight interceptions and one fumble recovery against opposing quarterbacks this year, and 11-of-14 quarterbacks against Cleveland have scored at least 20 Fantasy points. Rivers has been a letdown of late, but this is a good spot to trust him given the opponent. I'm starting Rivers in one of my final matchups this week.

After going six games in a row with at least 20 Fantasy points, Cousins comes into this matchup with three consecutive outings of 19 points or less. He was particularly awful in Week 15 against Carolina with just nine points, which tied his worst performance of the season in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. But I like his chances for a rebound game this week. The Bears have allowed seven quarterbacks this season to score at least 20 Fantasy points, and last year Cousins went into Chicago in Week 14 after a down game against Dallas (14 Fantasy points) and scored 23 points with 300 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception and 13 rushing yards with a touchdown. This same scenario should unfold this year, and Cousins remains a No. 1 quarterback in all leagues.

It was nice to see Newton and the Panthers not quit in Week 15 at Washington despite having nothing to play for but pride. Newton had one of his best games of the season with 300 passing yards and two touchdowns, and we hope he stays hot for the final two games of the year. He had 17 Fantasy points at Atlanta in Week 4, but he has a tremendous track record against the Falcons at home. In five games against the Falcons in Carolina, he's averaging 24.2 Fantasy points, with a high of 40 points in 2012 and a low of just 19 in 2013. Atlanta just allowed Colin Kaepernick to score 21 Fantasy points, and the Falcons are No. 2 in most Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks for the year. This is a good spot to trust Newton even though he let you down for most of the season.

Sleepers

• Marcus Mariota (at JAC): It's an easier matchup than what he's faced the past two weeks against Denver and Kansas City, but only one quarterback in the past seven games has scored at least 20 Fantasy points against the Jaguars. He scored 23 Fantasy points against Jacksonville in Week 8 and is averaging 27 points against Jacksonville in three career meetings.
• Jameis Winston (at NO): Winston has gone five games in a row with fewer than 20 Fantasy points, including a dud of eight points against New Orleans in Week 14. But the Saints offense failed to show up that week, and this time we could see more of a shootout. Winston is worth starting as a low-end No. 1 quarterback in the rematch on the road. He had 20 Fantasy points at New Orleans last year.
• Colin Kaepernick (at LAR): Three of the past four opposing quarterbacks against the Rams have scored at least 26 Fantasy points, and Kaepernick has scored at least 21 points in five of his past seven outings. He didn't play in Week 1 against the Rams at home, but Kaepernick has scored at least 19 Fantasy points in 4-of-5 road games this season. He's a low-end starting option this week.
• Matt Barkley (vs. WAS): The Redskins have allowed six of the past seven opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21 Fantasy points, and Barkley gets to face this defense on a short week after Washington played Carolina on Monday night. He has at least 18 Fantasy points in 2-of-3 home games this year, and he's an excellent streaming option in two-quarterback leagues this week.
• Blake Bortles (vs. TEN): It's obviously difficult to trust Bortles this week since he has a new coach in Doug Marrone and has scored 20 Fantasy points just once in his past five outings. But he had 35 Fantasy points at Tennessee in Week 8 and seven of the past nine quarterbacks against the Titans have scored at least 22 Fantasy points. Bortles could be a sneaky sleeper in two-quarterback leagues.

Sit 'Em

Palmer comes into this game with at least 21 Fantasy points in three of his past four outings, but this is a tough spot to trust him on the road at Seattle. He had 13 Fantasy points against the Seahawks in Week 7, and in three career trips to Seattle he is averaging 294 passing yards a game with five touchdowns, seven interceptions and two fumbles. The Seahawks have allowed four quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points this year, with Aaron Rodgers scoring 27 points as recently as Week 14. But Palmer is averaging just 16.2 Fantasy points on the road this season, and he should struggle again this week. He's barely an option in two-quarterback leagues in Week 16.

In Stafford's first game with the injured middle finger on his throwing hand in Week 15 at the Giants, he completed 62 percent of his passes for 273 yards and one interception and ran for 13 yards, which was good for nine Fantasy points. He's now scored fewer than 20 Fantasy points in seven of his past eight games, including two in a row, and it will be difficult to trust him this week against the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 17 Fantasy points in the past nine games, and Stafford has scored 18 points or less in four of his past five road games. Like Palmer, he's barely an option in two-quarterback leagues this week.

I had high expectations last week for Flacco at home against the Eagles, but weather issues ruined a potentially big game. He still managed 16 Fantasy points with 206 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception, but this should have been a dominant performance. This week, it will be hard to count on Flacco to play well on the road. He is averaging just 14.3 Fantasy points on the road this year, with two games of at least 20 points and four games with 16 points or less. He only scored 16 Fantasy points against the Steelers in Week 9, and in his last five games at Pittsburgh he's averaging just 234 passing yards with five touchdowns, two interceptions and two fumbles. He only has one game with multiple touchdowns over that span. This is a good week to avoid Flacco in most formats.

Dalton should get A.J. Green (hamstring) back this week, but Tyler Eifert (back) is out. And this could be a tough spot for him on the road. He has 14 Fantasy points or less in two of his past three road games, and last year against the Texans he had just 197 passing yards and one interception and four carries for 31 yards for eight Fantasy points. Houston is No. 6 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and the Texans allow an average of 16.1 Fantasy points a game to the position this year. Dalton is still worth starting in two-quarterback leagues, but he's a risky option in most standard formats.

Bust Alert

Manning's last three games in Philadelphia have not gone well, which is why he's in this spot. He's averaging just 195.3 passing yards a game over that span with one touchdown and two interceptions, and he has struggled on the road all season. He's averaging just 15 Fantasy points on the road this year with two games of at least 20 Fantasy points and four games with 15 points or less. And quarterbacks in Philadelphia are averaging just 13.5 Fantasy points, with Rodgers in Week 12 the lone one with more than 20 points, including matchups with Roethlisberger, Ryan and Cousins. Manning has scored at least 20 Fantasy points in five of his past seven games, but four of them were at home, including Week 9 against the Eagles when he had 30 points. But he's good at home in this series and bad on the road, and he should struggle again in Philadelphia this week.

Running back

Start 'Em

We hope you stuck with Powell in Week 15 against Miami despite Matt Forte being active, and Forte is now dealing with a shoulder injury on top of his ailing knee. Forte barely played against the Dolphins and should be out against the Patriots this week. In the past two games against San Francisco and Miami with Forte hurt, Powell has scored at least 15 Fantasy points in a standard league in both outings. He had 16 carries for 84 yards and 11 catches for 78 yards on 12 targets against the Dolphins, and he will definitely be involved in the passing game this week. New England has really struggled with pass-catching running backs this year, as nine running backs have at least four catches against the Patriots. And with Forte banged up you can expect a third game in a row for Powell with at least 20 touches. Eight running backs this season have either 100 total yards or a touchdown against New England, and Powell has a good chance to make it nine this week.

Kelley is starting to get more involved in the passing game, which is nice. He has six catches for 72 yards in his past two outings against the Eagles and Panthers, and that adds a different element to his game. He has scored at least 10 Fantasy points in a standard league in three of his past five games, and the Bears were abused last week by the Packers on the ground with Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael combining for 20 carries for 207 yards and three touchdowns. Bears defensive lineman Eddie Goldman (ankle) is out again this week, which should be great for Kelley, and he's a must-start running back in all leagues, especially with his recent performance catching the ball.

Stewart is coming off his best game of the season, and he's done a nice job for Fantasy owners of late with at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league in four of his past five games. He has four touchdowns over that span, and he had 25 carries for 132 yards last week at Washington. The Falcons don't give up a lot of rushing yards, but they struggle with running backs on the road. Atlanta has allowed a running back to score in 5-of-7 road games this year, including two in a row with Gurley and Ryan Mathews. The last time Stewart faced the Falcons was Week 14 last year, and he had 10 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. He's a solid No. 2 running back this week.

We wish Gore wasn't losing touchdowns to Robert Turbin, who has three in the past three games, because then Gore's stats would really be eye-popping. Still, he's scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in 10 games this year, including two in a row. He was strong last week at Minnesota with 26 carries for 101 yards and four catches for 14 yards, and the Raiders have allowed plenty of production to running backs this year. There have been 12 running backs to score or gain 100 total yards against Oakland this year, and Gore is a safe No. 2 running back in all leagues given his track record in 2016. And hopefully we can see Turbin left on the bench when Indianapolis has a chance to score.

I'm sticking with Rawls here despite last week's disaster against the Rams at home. He struggled behind a bad offensive line with 21 carries for 34 yards and two catches for 5 yards, but this is actually a better matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed a running back to score in five of six road games this season, with the lone exception being the Dolphins in Week 14. Seattle is tinkering with the offensive line again with Garry Gilliam stepping in at right tackle, and hopefully that's the solution following nine days to get ready for Week 16 after playing Los Angeles on Thursday night. I can understand the need to bench Rawls this week based on what happened in Week 15, but I still consider him a No. 2 running back in Week 16.

Sleepers

• Kenneth Farrow (at CLE): It looks like Melvin Gordon (hip) will remain out again this week, giving Farrow a mulligan on last week's awful outing against Oakland when he scored just two Fantasy points in a standard league. The Browns are No. 2 in Fantasy points allowed to running backs, so Farrow is worth using as at least a flex option here.
• Kenneth Dixon (at PIT): Dixon took a backseat to Terrance West last week against the Eagles based on game script, but Dixon should be back in the forefront here with the Ravens likely chasing points. He's scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in four games in a row, and he has at least four catches in three of his past four games.
• Derrick Henry (at JAC): His involvement is up with at least eight carries in three games in a row, and he's scored a touchdown in two of his past three outings. He had 16 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown and four catches for 37 yards in Week 8 against the Jaguars, and he's worth using as a flex option in this matchup.
• Jerick McKinnon (at GB): Even if Adrian Peterson (knee/groin) plays this week we still like McKinnon in PPR leagues as a must-start option, and Stefon Diggs (hip) is also banged up. McKinnon has at least five catches in three games in a row, with 20 catches over that span, and he's scored at least 12 Fantasy points in PPR during that stretch.
• Duke Johnson (vs. SD): The Chargers are among the league leaders in receptions to running backs with 87, and 12 running backs have at least three catches against San Diego this year. Johnson just had 94 total yards with five catches at Buffalo and is worth using as a flex option in PPR leagues this week against the Chargers at home.

Sit 'Em

Peterson might not play this week, so keep that in mind when setting your lineup Thursday. Not that it should matter much since he was a flop in his return to action in Week 15 against the Colts with six carries for 22 yards and one catch for 1 yard with a lost fumble. With the game out of reach, Peterson became a non-factor as the Vikings were chasing points, but he's now dealing with pain in his injured knee and a groin issue. The last time he faced the Packers was in Week 2 when he first hurt his knee, but this is not a good week to trust him in any format.

Coleman is always a threat to score in his complementary role behind Devonta Freeman, but when he doesn't find the end zone then his production is minimal. In the five games where Coleman hasn't scored then he has five Fantasy points or less in a standard league in four outings, including Week 15 against San Francisco. One of those games was Week 4 against Carolina when he had eight carries for 19 yards and three catches for 14 yards. He's not a bad flex option given his touchdown potential, but the Panthers are No. 5 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this year. Freeman remains a must-start option in all leagues, but Coleman is a boom-or-bust option you might want to avoid.

Gillislee is touchdown dependent, and it's tough to trust him in this matchup in Week 16. The Dolphins have only allowed five rushing touchdowns this season, and Gillislee has 50 total yards or less in four of his past five games, including three in a row. You're starting LeSean McCoy with confidence, but Gillislee only has three games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league despite scoring seven touchdowns on the year. And he's a non-factor in the passing game with eight catches for 40 yards on the season. Like Coleman, he's a boom-or-bust flex option in standard leagues, but you might want to avoid him this season given his letdown potential if he doesn't score.

The last time West faced the Steelers in Week 9 he had 15 carries for 21 yards and one catch for 6 yards. He comes into this game with at least 11 Fantasy points in a standard league in three of his past five outings, but this game will likely feature Dixon more than West given the game script of the Ravens chasing points. The Steelers haven't allowed a running back to gain more than 43 yards on the ground in five games in a row, and if West doesn't score then his production will be minimal. Dixon is a sleeper this week given his role in the passing game, but West is just a low-end flex option in most formats.

Bust Alert

There's a chance Crowell is great this week. He's at home, and the Chargers have allowed 10 running backs to score double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league this year. But I can't trust Crowell in this crucial week. He was a letdown last week at Buffalo in a good matchup with just eight carries for 28 yards and no catches, and he has six Fantasy points or less in five of his past six games. He also has one catch for 5 yards in his past two starts with Robert Griffin III, which is why we like Duke Johnson better in PPR leagues. Crowell might have some flex appeal this week in standard leagues, but don't be surprised if he lets you down, even against the Chargers at home.

Wide receivers

Start 'Em

I'd like to use Montgomery as a running back in the column, but that's out of my control where he's listed. But no matter his position designation he should be started this week after his performance the past two games. He had nine carries for 41 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 45 yards on four targets in Week 14 against Seattle and 16 carries for 162 yards and two touchdowns and two catches for 1 yard in Week 15 at Chicago. Minnesota is a tougher opponent, but every running back with at least 17 touches has either scored or gained 90 total yards against the Vikings, which has happened seven times. The Packers should again lean on Montgomery at home, and he's a No. 1 running back or receiver in any format this week.

For the past five weeks, Jackson has been a standout Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues. He has four games with at least 11 Fantasy points in a standard league over that span, and he's coming off a game against Carolina with 10 targets for seven catches and 111 yards. Garcon has also been consistent with at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in five of his past six games, including two games with at least 11 points, and he's been a quality starter in PPR. During that same stretch, Garcon has scored at least 14 Fantasy points in PPR in five outings. Jackson should be considered a No. 1 Fantasy receiver this week, and Garcon is a No. 3 receiver in standard formats and a No. 2 option in PPR.

I'm excited about all the Patriots receivers this week given the matchup with the Jets. In Week 12 in New York, Mitchell led the way with five catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets, Julian Edelman had eight catches for 83 yards on 11 targets and Chris Hogan had four catches for 70 yards on five targets. Mitchell is a borderline No. 1 receiver this week, and he'll rebound from last week's down game at Denver with one catch for 14 yards on one target. Prior to that, he scored at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league in four games in a row. Edelman is a No. 2 receiver, with his value higher in PPR, and Hogan is a Hail Mary option with the hope he scores. But given the matchup with the Jets, all three receivers are in play this week.

Thomas missed the first game with Tampa Bay in Week 14 with a foot injury, but he returned in Week 15 at Arizona and was once again a strong Fantasy option with seven catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. Brandin Cooks is also a must-start Fantasy option this week, and the Saints should rebound from the first performance against the Buccaneers when the offense was stagnant with just 11 points. That won't happen at home this week, even as well as Tampa Bay's defense has played of late. The key for Thomas is at least eight targets, and he's scored double digits in Fantasy points in all six games when Drew Brees has looked for him at least that many times. That should happen this week, and Thomas and Cooks will go off once again.

You're still starting Amari Cooper this week, but Crabtree has been the better Fantasy option this year. He only has four games this season with fewer than nine Fantasy points in a standard league, and he's scored at least 11 points in three of his past four outings. Cooper, meanwhile, has scored double digits in Fantasy points just six times and has five points or less in six games this year, including three of his past four games. Still, there's plenty of upside with Cooper, but Crabtree has the higher floor, especially this week. The Colts haven't allowed a receiver to score in the past two games against Houston and Minnesota, but prior to that Indianapolis allowed 10 touchdowns to receivers in the previous five games. Look for Crabtree and Cooper to reward Fantasy owners this week, but Crabtree should once again be the better Oakland receiver against the Colts.

Sleepers

• Dontelle Inman (at CLE): Don't be concerned with last week's stat line when he had just five catches for 68 yards. He still had eight targets and will continue to be a go-to option for Rivers. Inman remains a solid No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues with upside against the Browns this week, and he scored in three of his past four games.
• Cameron Meredith (vs. WAS): There's a good track record of the non-No. 1 receiver scoring against the Redskins this year, which has happened for three of the past four games with Terrance Williams, J.J. Nelson and Ted Ginn. Meredith has 15 catches for 176 yards and a touchdown on 21 targets in his past two games and has done well playing in the slot for Barkley.
• Robby Anderson (at NE): The best thing that happened to Anderson was Bryce Petty (chest) being able to play this week. With Petty under center the past three games, Anderson has 14 catches for 240 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets. The Jets will likely be chasing points this week at New England, and Petty will again lean on Anderson, who is a solid No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues.
• Eli Rogers (vs. BAL): The Ravens have struggled with slot receivers all season, and Ladarius Green (concussion) will likely be out this week, which should help Rogers get more targets. Rogers just had five catches for 75 yards and a touchdown at Cincinnati on six targets, and he had six catches for 103 yards on 10 targets at Baltimore in Week 9. He's a potential No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week in all leagues.
• Ted Ginn (vs. ATL): It's hard to overlook what Ginn has done recently, and he's moved past Kelvin Benjamin as the No. 1 receiver for the Panthers. He's scored in four of his past five games, and he has three games with at least six targets and four catches over that span. It's not just the deep ball for Ginn, but that's what you're hoping for this week. He's a boom-or-bust play as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver.

Sit 'Em

I liked Smith last week with his matchup against the Eagles, and he delivered with two catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. But that was his first touchdown since Week 11, and he's been at 60 receiving yards or less in seven of his past eight games. He had four catches for 47 yards on seven targets against Pittsburgh in Week 9, and his best game against the Steelers in his past five meetings was seven Fantasy points in a standard league in 2014. He's a low-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best this week.

Fitzgerald is still worth using as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in PPR leagues, but he's now gone nine games in a row without a touchdown. He only has one game with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league over that span, and it's hard to trust him in Week 16 at Seattle. He had nine catches for 70 yards against the Seahawks in Week 7 on 14 targets, and he had 10 catches for 130 yards at Seattle last year. But he also has three games with three Fantasy points or less in a standard league at Seattle in his past five trips there, and he could leave you with another mediocre stat line this week. The only Cardinals player to trust in this matchup is David Johnson.

Marshall continues to struggle this season, and last year he was awful in Week 15 against Miami with one catch for 16 yards on a whopping 11 targets. He has now combined for eight Fantasy points in a standard league in his past three games, and he scored in single digits in points in eight of his past nine outings. The one time he did reach double digits in Fantasy points was Week 12 against the Patriots, but this is not the week to go back to Marshall in your potential championship. It's clear Petty prefers to lean on Anderson, who is the lone Jets receiver to trust at this point in the year.

Pryor plans to play through his finger injury, which will require surgery after this season. But between being hurt and dealing with Griffin III it has been a tough stretch for Pryor of late. He has one Fantasy point in his past two games with Griffin, and he now has seven points combined in a standard league in the three games Griffin has started this year. San Diego isn't the toughest matchup for Pryor, especially at home, but there's no way to trust him now while he's playing hurt and with a less-than-stellar quarterback.

Bust Alert

Jeffery returned from his four-game suspension in Week 15 against Green Bay and played well with six catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. But he should struggle this week against Redskins cornerback Josh Norman. The last outside No. 1 receiver to score double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league against Washington was A.J. Green in Week 8, including matchups with Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant and Kelvin Benjamin in the past seven games. Jeffery is still worth starting as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but keep your expectations in check given the matchup with Norman this week.

Tight end

Start 'Em

Ertz is on a roll coming into this game, and he should stay hot against the Giants. He's scored at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league in five of his past seven games, including three in a row. This string of games started in Week 9 at the Giants when Ertz had eight catches for 97 yards on eight targets, and including that game, New York has allowed four tight ends to score at least nine Fantasy points in the past seven outings. Ertz has been a go-to guy for Carson Wentz with at least eight targets in 5-of-7 games, and he has at least nine Fantasy points against the Giants in three of his past five meetings. He is a slam dunk No. 1 Fantasy tight end coming into the week.

His first touchdown this season came in Week 2 against Green Bay when he had three catches for 31 yards and the score on eight targets, and he's playing well coming into this matchup. He has at least eight targets in four games in a row, and he's scored at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league in two games in a row. In PPR, he's scored at least 10 Fantasy points in four games in a row, including at least 15 points in three of those outings. The Packers have allowed three tight ends to score at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in their past six games, and Rudolph has scored against Green Bay in two of his past three meetings. He's a solid starter in all leagues this week.

Gates comes into this game just two touchdowns shy of tying Tony Gonzalez for the most touchdowns for a tight end in NFL history. Gates has 109, and the record for Gonzalez is 111. If there was ever a matchup for Gates to tie the record - and then potentially break it at home against the Chiefs - this is it. The Browns lead the NFL with the most Fantasy points allowed to tight ends and the most touchdowns with 12. Nine tight ends have scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league against Cleveland, including two in a row with Tyler Eifert and Charles Clay. Henry is also in play this week with a touchdown in four of his past five games, and there have been two times this year where Gates and Henry have scored in the same week. This could easily be three given the matchup, and Gates and Henry are both worth trusting as No. 1 options in Week 16.

Sleepers

• Martellus Bennett (vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed some big games to tight ends of late with Dwayne Allen (four catches for 72 yards and three touchdowns) in Week 13 and Dion Sims (four catches for 31 yards and two touchdowns) in Week 15. We hope Bennett follows suit, and he's a low-end starting option this week. He had four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown in his last home game against Baltimore in Week 14.
• Vernon Davis (at CHI): Jordan Reed (shoulder) is not expected to play this week against the Bears, which makes Davis a great streaming option. This will be the fourth game Reed has missed this year, and Davis has done well in his place in the three previous outings with 13 catches for 176 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. Chicago has allowed a tight end to score at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league four times in the past six games.
• C.J. Fiedorowicz (vs. CIN): He's expected to play this week after being out in Week 15 with a concussion, and this is an amazing matchup for him, especially with the upgrade at quarterback from Brock Osweiler to Tom Savage. The Bengals are No. 3 in most Fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and they just lost linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion) for this matchup. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin should benefit greatly with Burfict being out, but Fiedorowicz has the higher ceiling as a streaming option.
• Charles Clay (vs. MIA): It's tough to buy into Clay since prior to Week 14 he failed to score this season, but he has 10 catches for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets the past two weeks. And the Dolphins have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in their past six games. He's worth a look if you've been streaming the position all year.
• Dion Sims (at BUF): Sims is coming off a great game in Week 15 at the Jets, and he's scored a touchdown in three of his past four games. This isn't a great matchup against the Bills, who have allowed only three touchdowns to tight ends all year. But Sims is the only tight end to score against Arizona this season and could just be a matchup buster.

Sit 'Em

Things went downhill for Ebron starting on Thanksgiving Day in Week 12 against Minnesota when he went without a catch. Since then, he has combined for just nine Fantasy points in a standard league in his past three outings despite some great matchups against New Orleans, Chicago and the Giants. The Cowboys have allowed two tight ends to score double digits in Fantasy points in the past four games, but Ebron doesn't have much upside this week given his recent level of play.

Remember when Pitta had 19 Fantasy points against Miami in Week 13? Well, prior to that he had five Fantasy points or less in nine games in a row, and since then he has combined for just two points in a standard league against New England and Philadelphia. He also had one Fantasy point against the Steelers in Week 9, and the Steelers have allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends this season and only five to score at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league. There's no reason to trust Pitta with any confidence this week.

Witten might be worth using as a starter in PPR leagues this week after he had 10 catches for 51 yards in Week 15 against Tampa Bay on 10 targets. But keep in mind that prior to that outing he combined for seven catches for 59 yards in his previous three games. He has scored in just two games this season, and the Lions haven't allowed a tight end to score in their past five games. I have no interest in Witten in standard leagues this week, but he is worth a look in deeper PPR formats with the hope he can replicate what he did against the Buccaneers.

Bust Alert

Coach Jay Gruden expects Reed to play this week, but it's clear his shoulder injury is a problem for his production. In two games since coming back from the injury, which he sustained on Thanksgiving Day at Dallas, he has two catches for 16 yards on two targets. It's hard for him to stay on the field, including when he got ejected for throwing a punch in Week 15 against Carolina, and the Redskins would be better off keeping him on the bench to let Vernon Davis get more targets. Fantasy owners should stay from Reed until he proves his shoulder is better or that he can be more successful playing through the pain.

Defense/Special teams

Start 'Em

Patriots (vs. NYJ)

• Week 16 projected stats: 11.9 FPTS

The Patriots DST is coming off an excellent performance in Week 15 at Denver with 18 Fantasy points, and it has scored at least eight points in five games in row, including nine points at the Jets in Week 12. That was the low against the Jets in the past six games, and in their past three outings with Petty we've seen the Colts, Jets and Dolphins score at least 10 Fantasy points, with seven interceptions and 10 sacks allowed. The Jets have scored more than 17 points as a team just once in their past five games, which was overtime at San Francisco, and this game could get ugly in New England with a lopsided score. The Patriots DST are ranked No. 1 for me this week.

Sleepers

• Chargers (at CLE): Six teams in a row have scored at least 13 Fantasy points against the Browns, including three with at least 24 points. Over that span, Cleveland has four interceptions, 31 sacks, five fumbles and scored 13 points or less in each outing. The Chargers have a four-game streak with an interception, including six over that span, and six sacks. They are a potential Top 3 DST this week given the matchup.
• Packers (vs. MIN): After a dismal start to the season, the Packers DST has come alive in the past four games with at least 10 Fantasy points in each game against Philadelphia, Houston, Seattle and Chicago. During that stretch, the Packers have nine interceptions, 10 sacks and three fumble recoveries. The Packers DST scored 12 Fantasy points at Minnesota in Week 2, and the Vikings just allowed the Colts DST to score 21 Fantasy points in Week 15.
• Titans (at JAC): The Titans DST was a letdown the last time these teams met in Week 8 when they scored just six Fantasy points, and they have just one game with double digits in Fantasy points in their past four outings. But the Jaguars have still allowed five of their past seven opposing DSTs to score at least 14 Fantasy points, including the Texans last week with 16. Bortles has nine interceptions and 15 sacks in six games in Jacksonville this year, and he's always a good bet to help the opposing DST on a weekly basis.

Sit 'Em

Ravens (at PIT)

• Week 16 projected stats: 8.3 FPTS

The Steelers don't usually give up a lot of Fantasy production to opposing DSTs, with eight points or less in 11 games this year, including six in a row. But one of the three teams to score double digits in Fantasy points against Pittsburgh was the Ravens DST in Week 9 when they had 16 points. That game was in Baltimore and Roethlisberger's first game back after a two-week absence following knee surgery. The Ravens DST has been disappointing the past two weeks against New England and Philadelphia with 12 Fantasy points combined, and this should be another rough outing on the road, especially if cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle) is out. You should find another DST this week and bench the Ravens.

Kicker

Start 'Em

Janikowski has been a solid Fantasy kicker this season, especially of late, and this is a great matchup against the Colts. Janikowski has scored at least nine Fantasy points in five of his past six games overall, and he's scored at least 12 points in three of his past six home outings. The Colts are No. 3 in Fantasy points allowed to opposing kickers, and six kickers have scored double digits in points against Indianapolis this year. This should be another stellar game for Janikowski at home.

Sleepers

• Nick Novak (vs. CIN): Novak's best games have come at home this year, including Week 15 against Jacksonville when he scored 13 Fantasy points. He's now scored at least 11 Fantasy points in 4-of-7 games at home, and he's averaging 10.1 Fantasy points in Houston. Cincinnati has allowed three of the past five opposing kickers to score at least 10 points.
• Caleb Sturgis (vs. NYG): Sturgis has scored at least 10 Fantasy points in his past two games, and he has a great track record at home this year. He's scored double digits in Fantasy points eight times this season overall, including Week 9 at the Giants when he had three field goals and two extra points, and he's averaging 9.2 Fantasy points at home this year.
• Ryan Succop (at JAC): The Jaguars allow the most Fantasy points to opposing kickers this year, and Succop had three field goals and three extra points against Jacksonville in Week 8. Two kickers in a row have scored 13 Fantasy points against the Jaguars, who have allowed seven kickers to score double digits in Fantasy points this season.
• Graham Gano (vs. ATL): He's scored 14 Fantasy points in consecutive games and has double digits in Fantasy points in four of seven home games this year. It's been a disappointing season for Gano in 2016, but he's worth trusting this week given his track record at home.

Sit 'Em

McManus has started to tail off with his production of late with nine Fantasy points or less in four games in a row, including a combined seven points in the past two weeks against the Titans and Patriots. He only has two games this season with double digits in Fantasy points, and the Chiefs have allowed just three kickers to score at least 10 points this year, including one at home. Last year at Kansas City, McManus had one field goal, which was 54 yards, and four extra points, and I would expect another game with minimal Fantasy production this week. He's not worth starting on the road in this matchup.

Full Disclosure from Week 15

Week 15 was kind of strange. You had some strong performances from big-name guys like Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Devonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Ty Montgomery. But some of the names on top of the leaderboard at their respective positions were unexpected, including Matt Moore, Robert Turbin, Tyler Lockett, John Brown, Dion Sims and Charles Clay.

Our Start of the Week, Kirk Cousins, had a strange outing as well against Carolina on Monday night. He passed for 315 yards, but had no touchdowns and two turnovers. It was a miserable performance, and he let everyone down.

We did have plenty of positive start suggestions, however. Including sleepers, we were right on Wilson, Carson Palmer, Colin Kaepernick, Bilal Powell, Kenneth Dixon, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Gillislee, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Montgomery, Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel, J.J. Nelson, Steve Smith, Kyle Rudolph, Clay and the Dolphins DST. And we said to sit guys like Julian Edelman, Doug Martin and Todd Gurley, among others, who struggled.

Our bad calls were to start guys like Derek Carr, Thomas Rawls and Sammy Watkins. And we were wrong to sit guys like Andrew Luck, Ryan Mathews and Zach Ertz.

Let's hope Week 16 is more normal with the stars performing like stars. And we expect Gurley to be a star in his matchup with the 49ers.

Full Disclosure

Start of the Week: Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins

• Fantasy points: 9
• Position rank: 24

Recommended starts who made us look good

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

• Fantasy points: 26
• Position rank: 3

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets

• Fantasy points: 15
• Position rank: 10

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings

• Fantasy points: 9
• Position rank: 5

Recommended sits who made us look good

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

• Fantasy points: 7
• Position rank: 40

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

• Fantasy points: 4
• Position rank: 43

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

• Fantasy points: 3
• Position rank: 50

Recommended starts who made us look bad

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders

• Fantasy points: 12
• Position rank: 18

Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks

• Fantasy points: 3
• Position rank: 46

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills

• Fantasy points: 1
• Position rank: 90

Recommended sits who made us look bad

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

• Fantasy points: 22
• Position rank: 7

Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles

• Fantasy points: 20
• Position rank: 5

Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

• Fantasy points: 8
• Position rank: 11