2016 PGA Championship: Expert picks, predictions before a slugfest at Baltusrol
Our golf writers give you their picks and predictions for what should be a terrific week of golf at Baltusrol in New Jersey
Who are you picking at Baltusrol? That's all anyone wants to know this week. And rarely has the decision been more difficult.
The 2016 PGA Championship field is loaded with stars who have already played tremendous golf this season, including a few who have notched important wins leading up to the final major of a season that will be extended by the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics and Ryder Cup.
Let's not delay any further. Here's our picks for the 98th PGA Championship.
Kyle Porter, golf writer
Winner: Rory McIlroy. He has five top fives on the PGA Tour since March and has absolutely owned the PGA Championship of late. McIlroy is the only player with three top 10s in the last five years at the PGA Championship, and he gets to close out on Saturday and Sunday with a pair of par 5s. Time to eat.
Top 10 lock: Dustin Johnson. Six straight top 10s and his PGA Championship record is impeccable. Four top 10s in six appearances at this tournament. Plus, he can overtake Jason Day for the No. 1 spot in the world with a win this week.
Sleeper: Steve Stricker (100-1). This is delectable. Coming off a top five at The Open Championship, he has the fourth-best average finish at PGA Championships over the last five years (of those who have made at least three cuts). He would be the oldest major winner ever. I wish I would have gotten him at whatever his number was before The Open (probably 200-1), but this is still nice.
Top five, in order: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Jim Furyk, J.b. Holmes
Surprise prediction: Harold Varner III will finish higher than Louis Oosthuizen.
Lowest round: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 271 (-9)
Winner's Sunday score: 69 (-1)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner: Sergio Garcia. Garcia finished fifth at The Open after I picked him to win. It was his second straight T5 finish at a major this year, and I'm not ready to give up on him yet. The PGA hasn't been kind to him in recent years, as he doesn't have a top 10 since a T2 at the 2008 PGA, but this has been the year of the first-time major winner and there's not a player on Tour that has felt more major heartache than Garcia. It'd be so fitting for him to be the year's fourth first-time major winner. If this feels like a reckless double down, that's because it is, but I'm hitching my wagon to the Spaniard again, fully prepared to go down in flames on Sunday.
Top 10 lock: Dustin Johnson. I like to step out a little bit with my champion pick, but I'm not doing that with the top 10 lock here. Johnson has six straight top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour and has been top 10 in all three majors this year.
Sleeper: Jason Dufner (100-1). He has three top 10s in seven career PGA Championship appearances, including a win back in 2013. He's been really solid in the two most recent majors with a T8 at the U.S. Open and a T22 at The Open. Everyone says this is going to be a ball-striker's paradise this week, and he is a great striker, so I like his value at 100-1.
Top five, in order: Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Jason Day, Jason Dufner
Surprise prediction: Jordan Spieth finishes outside the top 25. Spieth has finished T30 and T37 in the last two majors, and if this is going to be a ball-striker's course, that may not bode well for him considering he's still battling his swing a bit. I won't go as far as to say he'll miss the cut, but I don't think he's going to factor into the Sunday discussion.
Lowest round: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 272 (-8)
Winner's Sunday score: 69 (-1)
Adam Silverstein, golf editor
Winner: Dustin Johnson. Kyle and Robby had the right idea with DJ, they just put him in the wrong spot. Forget the six straight top 10 finishes in 2016, Johnson has finished T12 or better in eight of his last nine majors. He has four top 10s in the PGA Championship and 13 in 29 career majors. To quote Jay Z, what more can I say?
Top 10 lock: Rory McIlroy. I've been riding Rors in these expert picks since the 2015 Masters, but I've smartened up. Yes, he owns the PGA Championship. Yes, he striking the ball well as of late. But he also missed the cut at the U.S. Open last month and three PGAs in five years just sounds impossible. So give me the Ulsterman to contend but not place first.
Sleeper: J.B. Holmes (75-1). John Bradley has seven PGA Tour wins since 2007 but none in majors and for a good reason: He historically does not play well on the big stage with 11 missed cuts or withdrawls in 25 appearances. Here's the thing, though. He finished T4 at the Masters and solo third at The Open Championship. So at 75-1, yeah, I'll take a guy who has been riding high in 2016.
Top five, in order: Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, J.B. Holmes
Surprise prediction: Hideki Matsuyama finishes ahead of Jordan Spieth.
Lowest round: 64 (-6)
Winning score: 269 (-11)
Winner's Sunday score: 67 (-3)
















