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Rory McIlroy turns 28 on Thursday, and he is winding down his wedding and honeymoon celebration in an undisclosed location before returning to the golf world next week at The Players Championship. He will celebrate his 28th trip around the sun knowing he has four majors on his resume, which might not sound like a lot at first glance.

However, one should consider the following statistics.

  • Only three golfers in history had more than four majors when they sat to blow out 28 birthday candles. One was Jack Nicklaus, one was Tiger Woods, and the other was Bobby Jones. This is good company.
  • Several all-time greats who ended their careers with more majors than McIlroy currently possesses had zero by their 28th birthday. Those include Arnold Palmer (!), Phil Mickelson and Sam Snead. This reveals the runway McIlroy has to play with both in the near and distant future.
  • Only two modern Europeans ended their careers with more majors than McIlroy's four (Nick Faldo with six and Seve Ballesteros with five). Faldo had none when he turned 28. Ballesteros already had four of his five. 

Forget age, though, McIlroy has won four of the first 32 majors he's played in or one every two seasons. If he continues this trajectory, he will have four more by the time he is 36 giving him eight for his career. At that point he would be (by far) the best European of all time and probably one of the 10 greatest golfers ever. At the age of 36.

I know it is a dangerous thing to stick with presumed trajectories (see: Woods, Tiger), but it puts into perspective just what McIlroy has accomplished already.

On the flip side, one interesting comparison to McIlroy might be Seve. He also had four on his 28th birthday and went on to win just one more. I don't think McIlroy will end his career with just five major championships, but that was probably the most intriguing golfer I found in my research. Ballesteros was a maestro from a young age (much like McIlroy) and won The Open at age 22. He was plagued by injuries in the latter half of his career.

So happy birthday to Rory and his all-time trajectory. As he noted on the No Laying Up Podcast last year, he knows what's at stake. He pointed out that if Dustin Johnson and Jason Day win three more majors, they get to him. If he gets three more, he reaches Palmer.