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I have thought a lot over the last 16 months about what Tiger Woods would be like when he returned to professional golf. I presume most people interested in golf have thought about this a lot. Woods is returning at the Hero World Challenge this week in the Bahamas, and that is a big deal for him as well as for the sport.

We all remember when Woods came back from his early 2014 surgery and promptly shot 74-75 at the Quicken Loans National to miss the cut. Then when he started off 2015 at the Phoenix Open with a 73-82 before withdrawing a week later from the Farmers Insurance Open with deactivated glutes. Those two tournaments followed a 2014 Hero World Challenge, where he shot 77 once and could not chip to save his life.

The standard has been set for how poor a Woods return can go ... I think. But this time is different in a lot of ways. First, he has been laid up since August 2015. That is a longer period of time than Woods has ever taken off. Second, he actually took his time getting back, got his back rested, got his feels back and is now hitting "all the shots."

With that in mind, let's create three scenarios for how this week at the Hero World Challenge could play out.

Best-case scenario

Woods goes out and shoots 69-67 to get in the mix after the first two days. Sports website servers melt, the football world is put on hold and all eyes are on Tiger for the weekend. He shoots a respectable 71-70 to finish T9 or T7 on the week and leaves Vegas oddsmakers scrambling to adjust their 2017 Masters odds.

A best-case scenario for Woods this week involves him looking free off the tee, tight with his short game and painless throughout. It probably involves in a little old-man swagger and definitely a fist pump or two. It's clear Woods is mentally thrilled to be back playing against his former colleagues, but I have concerns about rust and whether his body can actually hold up for four straight rounds.

His absolute ceiling in terms of performance is a top-five finish this week. Like, tied for fifth. Remember, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler are joining Woods at the tournament this week. This isn't exactly the Travelers Championship.

I will be blown away (along with many other golfers and media members) if he contends for the win in the Bahamas this week. That will be more miraculous than Andrew Landry nearly slaying Dustin Johnson at Oakmont for the 2016 U.S. Open.

Worst-case scenario

Tiger shoots 80 in the first round and is seen clutching his lower back on the way off the 18th green. A worst-case scenario involves a trip back to the chipping yips and a general disinterest in the week. All of this would be disastrous for Woods whose career strangely seems to be teetering in the balance right now.

I'm not even sure if the score matters this week. This is all about laying a foundation for the next 10 years. Even if you shoot four 74s, as long as they're pain-free 74s and involve bad shots rather than yipped chips, then you can live with that and move on. Heck, you're going to jump 150 spots in the Official World Golf Rankings just by not withdrawing.

Most-likely scenario

Tiger shoots 3 under on the week and finishes 17th (out of 18). He experiences soreness from playing and walking 72 holes but no serious injuries. I do think taking 16 months off has done his body good. I just hope he eases back into competitive play instead of pull pins from 260 yards out and trying to out-drive Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson on every hole. His body is 40 going on 60 because of the way he hit it when he was 24.

I think we get a couple of exciting flashes of Tiger being Tiger but no serious contention for this tournament (or any other for a while). The question to me is whether he (and we) can play the long game. Is Woods going to be content (if his body holds) to play for 2-3 years without a win like Phil Mickelson has? Will we be content just getting to see him make one final push at the end of an historic life?

Woods has always been the alpha in a sport full of lone wolves, but he's never had to experience sustained periods of getting lit up on the golf course that did not involve serious injury. At his age with these fields, that's probably what is about to happen. If he stays the course, though, I do think he can win again in 20 or 30 or 50 months. I'm just not sure if that payoff is worth what it will take to get there for him.

Hopefully this week's Hero World Challenge will give us a peek into whether his body will even allow for that decision to be made.