U.S. Open 2016: What score will win on the tough Oakmont course?
It depends, as it usually does, on the weather
By
Kyle Porter
•
2 min read
So what's going to win the U.S. Open? What score do you have to shoot to hoist a trophy as the sun dips behind the Pennsylvania countryside on Sunday afternoon-turned-evening? The answer to this question, as with most questions, is that it depends.
Jordan Spieth said on Monday that he's convinced anything under par will easily take the championship. But there was also a caveat.
"If it's like it is right now ... I think if you're under par, you certainly win," said Spieth. "I don't think it takes under par to win. If it rains, that changes. You can work a different ball flight. You can even miss it a little, and it can even end up in the fairway, and that would probably produce more under par scores. So it's tough to tell right now.
"If it played like [Sunday] with the 15 mile an hour wind, it's going to be significantly over par. If it doesn't change, it will be over par. If it does, if it rains, you can shoot under par."
It's supposed to rain on Thursday and Friday, which means the USGA might get silly with their bad selves on the weekend. Or it might mean that, like Spieth said, under par really could win the golf tournament.
A brief history of scoring at U.S. Opens (since 1930).
- Average winning score: 1.3 under
- Average winning score the year after under par won it: 1.9 under
- Average winning score at Oakmont: 1 over
That middle number sort of debunks the theory that the USGA puts dragons and castles on the course the year after somebody gets low. In fact, after Tiger Woods shot 12 under in 2000, 4 under won it the following year. The year after Lee Janzen shot 8 under in 1993, Ernie Els shot 5 under (at Oakmont!). There was a string from 1979 to 2006 in which nobody won the U.S. Open with a score over par.
And yet, Oakmont has reigned. There have only been 23 players who finished under par at this course in U.S. Open history (eight of those were in 1994). Its winner's scoring average of 1.1 over is almost three shots higher than the overall U.S. Open average. These are outrageous numbers.
There's also this.
The 60 rounds in the 80s at Oakmont in the 2007 U.S. Open:
— Mike O'Malley (@GD_MikeO) June 13, 2016
80 (17 times)
81 (15)
82 (8)
83 (6)
84 (5)
85 (4)
86 (3)
87 (1)
89 (1)
Based on the current rough, I see it getting worse this time around. There will probably be rain, but I don't think it will be enough to lower 2007 scores. I'm picking 288 to win it. That's 8 over. And hey, it's better than the 13 over that won here in 1927.
