Eye on the American League East
Without question or argument, the AL East is the toughest division in baseball, and it's not a close call. Fully 80% of the league is playoff-caliber, and the division has claimed the AL wild card for five straight seasons (and eight out of nine). As well, the expanded playoff pool for 2012 means the possibility of three AL East squads in the October fray.
All of this is to say, it's going to be a brutal march for the legitimate contenders of the East (i.e., everyone but the poor, blighted Orioles), and that goes double in this, the era of the unbalanced schedule. Pity them all, if you wish.
2011 Final Standings
1. Yankees 97-65
2. Rays 91-71
3. Red Sox 90-72
4. Blue Jays 81-81
5. Orioles 69-93
2012 spring primers
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
American League East's Best
Best lineup: Red Sox Give it to Boston by a hairsbreadth over the Yankees, mostly because of the age of the latter squad. Both teams could score more than 900 runs in 2012.
Best defense: Rays Easiest call of the bunch. Last season, the Rays put together one of the best defenses of recent history, and they should be similarly impressive in the season to come. No team in baseball compares when it comes to turning batted balls into outs.
Best rotation: Rays Tampa Bay has rotation depth that only the Rangers can match. David Price and James Shields are both capable of winning the Cy Young, and Matt Moore is the most promising pitching prospect in all the land. Give the reconstructed Yankee rotation a second-place nod.
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Best manager: Joe Maddon, Rays He contends despite significant turnover and even more significant payroll limitations. Maddon's also not beholden to received baseball wisdom, of which there is far too much.
Best player: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays In 2010, he hit 54 homers. In 2011, he was even better. What does 2012 hold?
Best pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees Sabathia has crafted five straight seasons of at least 230 innings and an ERA no higher than 3.37. That's the quintessence of an ace. David Price is his closest competitor.
Best rookie: Matt Moore, Rays Moore is one of those rare young pitchers for whom no learning curve whatsoever is a real possibility (already having a plus-plus changeup helps). Expect an outstanding rookie campaign, one that nets him a top-10 Cy Young finish.
AL East All-Star Team
LF - Brett Gardner
2B - Dustin Pedroia
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
RF - Jose Bautista
DH - David Ortiz
3B - Evan Longoria
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
C - Matt Wieters
SS - Yunel Escobar
Starter - CC Sabathia
CL - Mariano Rivera
Chances at winning the division
Yankees - 31%
Rays - 27%
Blue Jays - 21%
Red Sox - 20%
Orioles - 1%
The Blue Jays question
Much can be learned about the strength of the division by simply asking where the Blue Jays would finish. They were 81-81 last year, which was good for fourth in the mighty AL East. Where would they fit in the, um, American League East?
Since the Jays reside in the division in question, this is tantamount to a prediction. They'll finish third. Unless they finish fourth. Or second.
