A's, Giants facing long odds, but how long?

By Dayn Perry | Baseball Writer
The Giants and A's are longshots to advance, but it can be done. (AP)

Related: Yanks rally in the 9th | Nats rally to 1-0 series lead | Giants in survival mode | Tigers rolling

The A's and Giants are both tasked with coming back from down 0-2 in a best-of-five series. In other words, neither Bay Area team has any margin for error. It goes without saying the odds of a comeback are steep, but history suggests it's not impossible that the A's and Giants will somehow hawk down the Tigers and Reds, respectively.

The best-of-fiver first became a part of MLB in 1969, when American and National League teams were divvied into divisions and the League Championship Series was introduced. The LCS was a best-of-five affair until 1985, when that round was expanded to a best-of-seven format. The best-of-five made a return for the 1995 season, when a third round of play was tacked on to the postseason, and it has been with us ever since.

So that comes to a total of 104 best-of-five postseason series in all of baseball history. A team took a 2-0 lead in 65 of them or 62.5 percent of the time. And what happened in those 65 best-of-five series? Here's how they break down ...

  • 41 times the team with the 2-0 lead went on to sweep.
  • 17 times the team with the 2-0 lead went on to win the series but didn't sweep.
  • Seven times the team down 0-2 came back to win the series.
Stated another way, 6.7 percent of all five-game series have entailed a successful comeback from 0-2, and in 10.8 percent of series that started off 0-2 the team that lost the first two games came back to win the final three. It's the latter figure that's most relevant to the aims of Oakland and San Francisco. Assuming the teams are evenly matched, you'd expect the team down 0-2 to win the final three games about 12.5 percent of the time. Throw in the diminishing psychological effects of the 0-2 hole, and the percentage should probably drop a bit. So 10.8 percent seems to be right in line with expectations.
And here's a quick walking tour of those seven teams that managed to defy the odds ...
Karmic balance alone would suggest the A's are entitled to one of these at some point, so superstitious Tigers fans should be forewarned.
As for the Giants, they have the doubly unenviable task of having to win three road games in order to mount a successful comeback. Only one team -- the '01 Yanks -- has ever come back in a five-game set after dropping the first two at home. Those Yankees, though, had the benefit of playing Game 5 back in the Bronx. The 2012 Giants must do something that no team before has ever done: after dropping the first two games of a best-of-five series at home, win three straight on the road. That's a consequence of this year's one-off format, and it's making San Fran's already long odds even longer.

Of course, this isn't about just the A's and Giants: The Cardinals and Orioles, down 0-1, can consider these numbers a cautionary tale headed into Monday's action.

For more baseball news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnBaseball on Twitter, subscribe to the RSS feed and "like" us on Facebook.

You May Also Like
 

Biggest Stories

CBSSports Facebook Twitter
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre

Latest

Most Popular