AL Cy Young Power Rankings: Indians' Kluber, White Sox' Sale ahead of the pack
Kluber and Sale continue to battle with two weeks remaining
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4 min read
We've got roughly a fortnight left in the 2016 regular season, so the various races and derbies are beginning to take on a final shape. While there's still time for things to change, it's always fun to discuss how the individual awards races are going to shape up. Let's do exactly that and examine the AL Cy Young race as it stands at this late hour.
Before we dive in, let's point out that our awards power rankings posts are not our predictions or even necessarily how we would vote. These are intended to be a snapshot of where things stand at the moment, and we're making subjective judgments on how the vote would turn out based upon recent historical voting tendencies.
On that latter point, we know that surface-level metrics like won-lost record and ERA matter. Even if you disagree, that's just how it goes with voting for the Cy Young. With all that in mind, let's jump in ...
This remains an open race. You can argue in favor of Kluber (based on criterion such as his league-leading WAR total), and Chris Sale (he leads in WARP). We're sticking with Kluber on the assumption that old-school voters will prefer his superior second-half baseball-card numbers. He's gone 8-1 with a 2.40 ERA since the All-Star Break, whereas Sale is 2-5 with a 2.52 mark. Regardless, both aces have turned in performances worth of subsequent replays -- to the extent that the Indians might bring Kluber back on short rest during the postseason.
One of these falls, Sale is going to win a Cy Young award. For now, he might have to settle for finishing second, which, by the way, would be a new personal best. He's never ranked higher than third. Sale leads the AL in complete games (with six) and is second in innings pitched. His raw ERA is better than Kluber's, but his adjusted mark is worse due to park-factor weirdness. If Sale wins, it's justifiable. If he doesn't win, it's justifiable. Again, the race is open -- wide-open.
Whether or not you accept Porcello's gains as sustainable -- and there are sound arguments against that belief -- is irrelevant. This year's results are all that matter, and he has those working in his favor. Another thing working for Porcello? His helium -- the exact reason we've placed him ahead of Masahiro Tanaka and Justin Verlander, each strong candidates. Porcello leads the AL in victories (20) and has held opponents to a .528 OPS in the second half. He hasn't thrown fewer than seven innings since late July. This could prove to be an overzealous ranking for Porcello but, if so, it won't be by much.
4. Masahiro Tanaka
SP
IP193.2
ERA+147
WAR5.6
In Tanaka's first start following the Yankees' deadline sell-off, he allowed seven runs in six innings. In eight starts since, he's allowed 11 runs. Oh, and he has one fewer strikeout than hits-plus-walks allowed. Tanaka has moved into second place in the AL in WAR as a result, and his case should be aided by a 6-0 mark in those games. The Yankees aren't going to make the postseason, but that they were in the race speaks to Tanaka's impact.
Depending on how your coin lands, you can argue Verlander should be higher -- that's how impressive his renaissance has been. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 15 starts, and during that stretch he's struck out 91 more batters than he's walked -- all in about 102 innings of work. Verlander isn't likely to bring home his second Cy Young award, but he's almost guaranteed his fifth top-five finish.
By now, you've read about how Quintana is the game's most underrated pitcher on about a dozen different occasions. To wit, he's closing in on his fourth consecutive 200-plus-inning effort with above-average ERA and strikeout-to-walk marks. Still, Quintana's shine has been removed by some recent rough outings. His most recent start qualified as his worst, per Game Score. He ought to earn his first career Cy Young vote anyway, but he'll finish outside of the top-five.
It wasn't long ago Hamels led the AL in WAR. He was then felled twice by the Mariners and once by the Athletics, causing his descent. How poor were those starts? He allowed 19 runs in 12 innings. Comparatively, he's allowed 21 runs in his other 62 second-half innings. Unfortunately, for Hamels and the Rangers -- an organization seeking its first Cy Young winner -- those 12 innings are going to cost him serious consideration for the top spot.
Britton remains arguably the most polarizing candidate on the ballot. Voters who are willing to slot in a closer high will point to his (potential) single-season record ERA, and how he hasn't allowed a home run since April. Voters not willing to waste space on a reliever won't care. Such disparity in ballot placement figures to keep Britton lower than you might expect -- albeit still in the top-10.
You can make the argument that a different Blue Jays starter, Aaron Sanchez, should be here instead. Fair enough. Happ receives our nod because he has six more wins, a few more innings, and none of the candidacy-wrecking demotion talk that's going to overshadow Sanchez's effort. Each pitcher has had a marvelous season, however, and deserves recognition.
We've discussed Duffy's candidacy before. He's had a tremendous season since moving into the rotation: 24 starts, a 3.20 ERA, 160 strikeouts in 151 innings, and so on. The problem is, Duffy's going to be dinged for spending most of the first two months in the bullpen. Even now, he has fewer innings than Aaron Sanchez, and only 12 more than Michael Fulmer. Duffy nonetheless deserves votes, but his finish won't accurately reflect the quality of his season.
Honorable mention: Michael Fulmer, Tigers; David Price, Red Sox; Andrew Miller, Indians; Chris Tillman, Orioles; Kevin Gausman, Orioles; Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays.
