MLB Hot Stove: Ranking the 10 stars most likely to be traded at the Winter Meetings
Spoiler: Chris Sale makes an appearance
By
Mike Axisa
•
4 min read
It is all but certain this week will be the busiest week of the baseball offseason. The 2016 Winter Meetings are currently underway at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland, and the four-day hot stove bonanza will feature plenty of trades and free-agent signings. No doubt.
Now that the Winter Meetings are underway, let's rank the star players most likely to be traded this week. These are the players who have been mentioned in trade rumors most often over the last, say, 72 hours or so. We're ranking these players on the likelihood they will be traded, not talent level, so there's a certain amount of guesswork here. Let's get to it.
At this point a Chris Sale trade feels inevitable. It really does. The White Sox have set their asking price high and understandably so. Sale is a capital-A Ace signed affordably for three more years. He's the the type player who can change the balance of power in a division all by himself. The Nationals have been most connected to Sale over the last few days. Don't count out the Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, Dodgers, or Braves though.
The Royals have some tough decisions to make. Almost their entire core, including closer Wade Davis, will hit free agency next offseason. Does Kansas City go all-in and try to win with this group one last time in 2017, or take a step back, trade them, and rebuild? My guess is they'll do a little of both. As good as Davis is, he's their most replaceable star -- Kelvin Herrera is ready to step in at closer -- and there will be no shortage of suitors.
A few days ago it felt like an Andrew McCutchen trade was imminent. The Pirates and Nationals were said to be deep in talks, but things have apparently cooled off since then. I still think the chances of McCutchen being dealt this week are pretty good though. That's why he's third on this list. If the Nationals are unable to finish a deal, the Rangers could be the club that swoops in to get him.
Okay, we're stretching the limit of "star" here, but Jay Bruce was indeed an All-Star in 2016 (true story!), so he qualifies. Anyway, the Mets are overloaded with outfielders after re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, and moving one is inevitable at this point. Heck, they might even more two outfielders this week, which is why I'm lumping Bruce and Curtis Granderson together. The Mets would prefer to keep Granderson and trade Bruce. Trade partners would prefer to acquire Granderson, not Bruce. Intrigue!
The free agent pictching class is very weak this offseason, especially now that Rich Hill has re-signed with the Dodgers, and that means the pitching trade market will be busy. The Rays are as opportunistic as any team in baseball, and I could see them trading any of their starters not named Blake Snell. Chris Archer is the most desirable as the cost-controlled ace. Jake Odorizzi is the steady mid-rotation starter with three more years of control. Alex Cobb is the upside play rental. Drew Smyly is the bounceback candidate.
There was a lot of talk about the Tigers being sellers early in the afternoon, especially after trading Cameron Maybin to the Angels in what seemed like a salary dump. Detroit hasn't made a trade since, but their players keep popping up in rumors, none more so than J.D. Martinez. He's averaged 34 home runs per 162 games in his three years with the Tigers, and he's only one year away from free agency, so Martinez is an obvious candidate to be moved.
Lorenzo Cain is relatively new to the rumor mill. It makes perfect sense why the Royals would listen to offers too. He's very good, he's only a year away from free agency, and they have some internal center field replacements. Teams that don't want to pay big (and give up a draft pick) to sign Dexter Fowler could instead package some prospects for Cain and receive similar two-way excellence.
Yet another Royals player. Danny Duffy, who flirted with the AL ERA title for a few weeks last season, is another Kansas City player who is year away from free agency. He is the team's best starting pitcher, but with only one year of control remaining, the Royals would be silly not to gauge Duffy's market this winter. Any starting pitcher who has had a shred of MLB success will generate interest this year. Duffy could net the Royals a shockingly big package of prospects.
The Reds are in "we're open to anything" mode, which includes listening to offers for speedster Billy Hamilton. He's a top notch defender in center field and there were indications he's ready to take the next step with his offensive game in the second half. This is a chance for a smart team to get in on the ground ball, before Hamilton truly breaks out and the price skyrockets.
I'm not confident the Athletics will trade Sonny Gray this week, but I am sure they'll listen to offers, simply because they wouldn't be doing their jobs if they didn't. Gray is coming off a season filled with injuries and ineffectiveness, though that won't stop the A's from marketing him as an ace. In this market, some team just might be willing to pay big in hopes of a rebound.
Other Notables: Mike Fiers, Astros; Brett Gardner, Yankees; Collin McHugh, Astros; Seth Smith, Mariners; Yangervis Solarte, Padres; Jorge Soler, Cubs
