The stolen-base aces who could impact MLB playoffs, and how teams match up
Rajai Davis and Trea Turner could create havoc this fall, especially against the Rangers and Mets
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4 min read
Sometimes baserunning makes all the difference. We saw it in Game 6 of last year's American League Championship Series, when Lorenzo Cain scored the go-ahead run on a mad dash from first base. We'll see it again this fall, in some big situation in some big game in some big series. We just might see it manifest in a different form -- like, as a stolen base.
Every steal attempt contains tension -- consider it a benefit of the action unfolding from start to finish within five seconds. But that drama, like all else, is intensified in the postseason. A little slip here, an extra step there can dictate championship aspirations. Hence Dave Roberts becoming a well-known name, hence faster-than-heartbreak Terrance Gore becoming a cult celebre.
Who might join Roberts and Gore in stolen-base lore? Here's a look at some capable candidates -- as well as the pitchers and catchers who are best and worst equipped to stop them.
The Indians
We're starting with an entire team. No other playoff squad stole as many bases as the Indians did during the season, and they finished first in the AL in success rate.
Credit the Indians' base-stealing savvy in large part to Rajai Davis. Long one of the best thieves in the game, Davis stole a career-low (for a full season) 18 bases in 2015. He atoned for that blip in 2016 by swiping more than 40 bags for the fifth time -- tying him for second behind Carl Crawford for most such seasons among active players. Davis isn't the only Indians player who can steal a base, either. Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor -- the convivial shortstop who seems to derive as much pleasure from baseball as most of us do from sleeping without socks -- also deserve props for efficient heisting -- combined, they were 56 for 71 on the season. Don't sleep on Coco Crisp knocking off the rust and showing why he's a base-stealing genius, either.
As for some individuals:
There's a reason some -- OK, a few -- call Trea Turner "Mr. Steal Your Base." He's one of the top burners in the game. Need evidence? His average time to second on stolen-base tries was 3.5 seconds -- the aforementioned Davis was the only qualified player on a playoff team who checked in faster, according to Baseball Info Solutions. If that isn't enough, consider that Turner stole a base nearly every other game. He's a good pick to lead the majors in steals someday.
Yes, Mookie Betts is an MVP candidate -- perhaps the favorite -- for his total offense and defense contributions. But don't overlook his ability to swipe a bag. Though he's not as prolific as Davis or even Turner, he has succeeded on 54 of his first 67 tries and represents Boston's best base-stealing threat -- and, obviously, best overall player.
A wild card due to health. A bum hamstring has sidelined Eduardo Nunez for the past week, and could well limit his ability to steal bases heading forward. Nonetheless, he deserves a mention for pocketing 40 bags at an 80 percent success rate. Without the injury, Nunez likely would've led the Giants in steals -- remember, he appeared in 50 games with San Francisco. The Giants just don't have anyone else who can offer this dynamic, so they need a healthy Nunez.
We're all about being fair and just here, so it's only right to highlight some of the batteries that will be tasked with stopping those thieves this October.
First, the backstops. Note that we're using an advanced metric courtesy of Baseball Prospectus called Swipe Rate Above Average -- it judges how much more likely a successful attempt is vs. the average catcher while controlling for a number of variables. It's thorough, basically. A positive number means a steal is more likely to succeed, a negative number means less likely:
| Catcher | Team | SRAA | Catcher | Team | SRAA |
| Miguel Montero | Cubs | 9.89% | Jonathan Lucroy | Rangers | -6.59% |
| Russell Martin | Blue Jays | 7.21% | Roberto Perez | Indians | -6.42% |
| Travis d'Arnaud | Mets | 5.53% | Sandy Leon | Red Sox | -5.47% |
| Trevor Brown | Giants | 3.30% | Matt Wieters | Orioles | -5.45% |
| Ryan Hanigan | Red Sox | 2.27% | Buster Posey | Giants | -4.77% |
Cubs and Blue Jays fans will hold their breath whenever there's a steal opportunity against Montero and Martin. Meanwhile, Red Sox and Giants fans should be fine, so long as their starters remain healthy and in the game.
Of course, the dirty secret about stopping the running game is that catchers aren't the responsible party. True, there are exceptions, where a catcher is so good or poor at throwing that teams are impacted by them and them alone. But, for the most part, teams are running (or not) off pitchers -- usually due to their slowness to the plate, but sometimes because of their predictability in moves/looks. As such, let's turn our attention to the pitchers.
| Pitcher | Team | SRAA | Pitcher | Team | SRAA |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 11.78% | Johnny Cueto | Giants | -9.92% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 10.62% | Corey Kluber | Indians | -9.85% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | 9.18% | Colby Lewis | Rangers | -9.69% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 7.14% | Trevor Bauer | Indians | -9.40% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 6.01% | Chris Tillman | Orioles | -9.38% |
Syndergaard is so easy that opponents can (and sometimes do) take a pair. Jimenez is the other big offender here, while both Darvish and Hamels will test Lucroy's ability to keep stealers tethered to the bag. On the other side, Cueto is a one-man red light, thanks in part to a balky pickoff move called the knee pop. The Indians are also well represented, and it requires a perfect syzygy of unlikely events to steal a base off a Kluber or Bauer when paired with Perez.
But who knows, weird things happen in October. Maybe it'll happen -- maybe in a crucial moment.
