Celtics-Wizards: Where the series stands headed into the always-pivotal Game 5
The Wizards have been better, but the Celtics are still tied 2-2. Does anyone have momentum?
The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards are locked in a 2-2 series headed into Game 5 Wednesday night. It has not been a pleasant series, filled with blowouts and altercations, suspensions and questionable fouls. These two teams hate one another and with the series going at least six games, it's likely only going to get worse.
Here's a look at what you need to know about the series as we head into its final best-of-three set to decide it.
THE OVER-ARCHING THEME: IS BOSTON GOING TO WIN AS THE WORSE TEAM WITH A HIGHER SEED?
The Celtics' position is fascinating. They're the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, yet many felt they may have been eliminated in the first round had it not been for an injury to Bulls guard Rajon Rondo, of all people. They won the first two games in Boston in impressive fashion ... despite going down by double digits to Washington in both games.
Maybe most compelling is this: It does not feel like they are the better team, yet there is a sense that they will win the series.
The Celtics have been outscored by 24 points in this series. To put that in perspective, the Warriors outscored the Jazz by 60 points, and the Cavaliers outscored Toronto by 61, both in sweeps. Yet this series is 2-2. The reality is that the Wizards had leads in both Games 1 and 2 in Boston, and could have won both. They didn't, and that's a credit to their resilience, coaching and Isaiah Thomas. But you also wonder if it's going to catch up with them at some point.
Here's the big key: It doesn't matter who the better team is in this series, not anymore. Look at Spurs-Rockets. The Rockets are a plus-9 in that series, and they're down 3-2. They have more weapons, Tony Parker is out, Kawhi Leonard got hurt in Game 5, and still, the Spurs won. The Celtics very much feel like the Spurs of the East, a team that you watch and go "How is this team possibly going to win against all these weapons?"
And then they do.
On the other hand, you do kind of keep waiting for the Wizards to simply stop ruining themselves and take control.
HOUSE OF GUARDS
Here's a breakdown of how the starting guards are faring in this series:
John Wall: 27.8 points per game, 12.3 assists, 42 percent shooting, 5.0 turnovers, 2.8 steals, 1.8 blocks, plus-4.3 net rating.
Bradley Beal: 23.6 points per game, 46 percent shooting, plus-8.0 net rating.
Isaiah Thomas: 29.5 points on 50 percent shooting, 5.5 assists, 3.0 turnovers, minus-11.1 net rating.
Avery Bradley: 11.0 points on 34 percent shooting, 4.0 rebounds, minus-11.6 net rating.
That clearly tells a huge part of this series' story, but then, of course, you have Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart combining for 16.8 points per game in this series, along with 8.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists, while Brandon Jennings and Tomas Satoransky have given the Wizards essentially nothing.
If the Wizards had any backup guard, of any value, they'd likely be winning this series with a chance to close it out in Boston. Garrett Temple, Shelvin Mack, Jameer Nelson, name a backup point guard. But Brandon Jennings has just been rough, and the Celtics' depth is phenomenal. They are getting contributions from so many guys.
The Wizards have found ways to exploit Thomas on defense without going right at him. They have scored 13 points on 14 possessions with him as the primary defender in the post, and have run him through screens and gone up against him. He's holding his own in isolation, and Washington has only scored four points on 11 possessions isolating him. But they've scored 35 on 28 possessions in other sets.
The bigger issue, and this has been true all season, is that the Celtics' defense is so worried about the little guy, they over-help, and that opens up shots for everyone else. Boston might do well to just stay home in Game 5.
INSIDE VS. OUTSIDE
The Wizards are plus-56 in points in the paint in this series, while Boston is plus-57 in points off 3-pointers. Those are huge numbers. if the Celtics can protect the rim better, they're in good shape. If the Wizards can hit a few more 3s, they're in good shape, or if they can not give up so many. Part of Washington's issue is contributions from guys who aren't spectacular 3-point shooters. Al Horford can hit from range, but he shot 35 percent from deep in the regular season and is shooting 54 percent in this series. Jae Crowder is shooting 44 percent from deep.
And yet, this is the Celtics, a rhythm team. It's why these games are so close, the two teams are evenly matched. Boston is a rhythm team, Washington is athletic. The Celtics are deep, the Wizards are top-heavy. The battle between the two best players in the series has been awesome, with a slight tilt toward Wall after Game 4, when I thought Thomas has been better through the first quarter of that game. That's how close it is.
It's why Game 5 is so important, and why it's impossible to tell how this series will turn out just yet.
















