Debating whether Heat's impressive win streak is good or bad for the franchise

Winning is good, but this team winning like this is ... complicated

The Miami Heat are eight games under .500 and winners of 11 straight games. They are the hottest team in the league. They've also been a bad team for much of this season. These things are all true, all at once.

So naturally, superlatives and declaratives reign supreme.

"The Heat are going to make the playoffs!"

"Miami just had a bad start to the season because of injuries, this is the real team!"

"The Heat are still terrible, there's no way they make the playoffs."

"Is Dion Waiters a franchise player?'

"Can you believe people actually think Dion Waiters is a franchise player?"

"Why not the Heat?"

"Why are the Heat even doing this?"

If the Heat were a .500 team that went on an 11-game winning streak, we'd be talking about where they stand in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. But they're not. They went on this winning streak, and they are still eight games under .500. If the Heat win 20 games in a row, they are going to be a single game over .500. That's stunning. It also has a lot of implications for the present and future of the team. Miami's particular situation is such that "Is winning 11 games in a row a good thing?" is a serious question, and anyone who really spends time thinking about it should be torn on the answer to that question. So let's consider it.

Here's an internal debate, with opposing sides expressed first in bold italics.

The Heat have won 11 games in a row. Clearly they're a great team, what's the problem?

You don't win 11 games by accident. That's not a fluke. That's the mark of a good team. How can you argue otherwise? The Heat have turned it around. Their defense is fourth best in the league since January 1, and they're getting contributions from several good players. They had a rough start to the year, sure, but what Erik Spoelstra has consistently shown is that he can adjust on the fly.

Remember last season, when the Heat were a top-flight defensive team but couldn't score at all, and then Chris Bosh went down? He reconfigured the offense, with Luol Deng at stretch four, and the team took off, reaching the semifinals. Had Hassan Whiteside not gone down with injury, it's pretty easy to suggest that it could have been Miami in the conference finals vs. the Cavs. Much of that was because of Spoelstra's adjustments. He just flat-out doesn't get the credit he deserves for what he does year in and year out in Miami, no matter what happens with the roster.

The Heat were a bad team. Now they're a good team, built around Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters. Get on board.

Let's slow our roll here, but let's also try and figure out what this team is actually doing, how about?

It's true that they are fourth in defense since January 1. And it's true that consistently all season long, they've been competitive in games, on account of that defense. But since January 1, they're still just 18th in offense. That's how bad they were in the 16 days before the streak began. Despite this incredible stretch of games, they are still 20th in offense this season in points per possession this season, via Synergy Sports.

Before January 1, they were still 10th in defense, but 28th in offense and 10-24. Did they really go from that team, to this team, instantly? I am here to tell you that this happens all the time: teams have outlier months. The Portland Trail Blazers went 25-18 from January 1 through February 28 last season. It was enough to get them into the playoffs as a five-seed. They were sub-.500 outside of those two months, and the regression to the mean has been brutal this season, compounded by how they built around what they thought was a core this summer.

Are we really buying that a team with Whiteside, Dragic and Waiters as their key components is an actually good NBA team?

You had better put some respect on Goran Dragic's name, and share the wealth while you're at it.

Dragic has been playing at an All-Star level the past two months. Over the last 20 games, he's averaging 21 points and 6.3 assists per game, shooting 49 percent from 3-point range. Take that back to the last 10 games during this stretch, and you're looking at 63 percent from deep.

The biggest thing is he's back to playing free, the way he did in Phoenix. This is who Miami traded for two years ago. Watch how quickly he's making decisions offensively here:

Meanwhile, Whiteside is swatting everything in existence, and Waiters has flat-out been awesome. He's comfortable now, making things happen, and honestly? You can't even complain all that much about his shot selection. You know he was a useful player in Oklahoma City last year, and he seems to have learned a lot. Why can't he just have grown into his game? The numbers are there, the wins are there. Get on board.

OK, I'll give you that those three have been great. The question, however, should be, where is this actually going?

Dragic's stats are impossible to refute, and the eye test matches up as well. I'm still worried about a. his impact, and b. if you can be successful long-term given how much he needs the ball. But the production is the production, and his efficiency has been just crazy.

Goran Dragic has been sensational for the Heat. USATSI

The Heat defense being worse per 100 possessions with Whiteside on the floor vs. off, even since January 1, is concerning, but he's also been pouring it in on offense. He's a two-way player, and the Heat defense is good overall, so we've got to give him some slack there. And Waiters has been awesome. He was a steal for the Heat when they got him at that discount price, and he's paying off. It's not just the clutch-time scoring. He's averaging 21 points and six assists per game during the streak, and 17-4 over the last 20 games. He's red-hot from the perimeter, and the Heat defense is better with him on the floor than off.

I know I'm playing the skeptic here, but I do wind up wondering: if he continues this level of play -- which is the question of course -- how exactly is DeMar DeRozan better?

But here's the rub: You cannot assume these players will continue this. Whenever I suggest that, I'm greeted constantly with "why not?!" from fans. The same thing happened earlier this year when I pointed out that DeMar DeRozan, during his infamous early-season scoring streak, was shooting 57 percent from mid-range, the inherently least-efficient place to shoot on a basketball court. Since December 1, DeRozan is shooting 40 percent from midrange. Now, DeRozan is still averaging 28 points per game, because he's awesome. But we have an established history with Derozan.

Meanwhile, the three Heat stars have been defined by their peaks and valleys. Waiters was a punchline a year ago, memed for his constant request for the ball in OKC and mocked for missing layups. He did really grow into a better player in OKC and has been so good in Miami, but there's a gap between that and "ready to be a star on a playoff team." Whiteside's immaturity graded on teammates' nerves and his stat-chasing can be detrimental to the team. And Dragic has gone from budding star in Phoenix, to Kyle Lowry's backup in Houston, to MVP sleeper candidate in Phoenix, to an above-average point guard the past two years in Miami.

Yes, that MVP-level Dragic has been back within the past month, but how is one to have any faith that it will sustain?

The whole thing feels like a house of cards, the exact type of thing that people get carried away with in January, and then wind up later saying "Hey, remember when the Heat won 11/15/20 games in a row? That was hilarious and weird."

Meanwhile, and here's the elephant in the room: the draft pick is slipping away. Miami was on track to have a top-three pick in a loaded NBA Draft next June. Now they're 11th, and if this keeps up, could finish as high as 14th even if they miss the playoffs. You can get a good player there, and if you're really lucky, you can get Kawhi Leonard in that spot. But the more logical route for the Heat's future requires that top-five pick. Markelle Fultz changes the trajectory of the franchise.

Is it really a good thing that the Heat are making a run with players that no one outside of those players themselves believe are actually the foundation of a contending team?

How do we know whoever they would draft with a top pick would be better than any of the Heat's trio? And what is the team supposed to do?

The draft is a crapshoot! Guys who should be can't-miss can wind up being busts, while guys later in the draft can become stars. It's all about scouting. If the Heat get the No. 1 pick and Fultz (or whoever) doesn't work out as a franchise-changing star, won't they be missing out on the good things that are happening now?

And even if we were to accept that losing was a better outcome, and beyond all the ethical ramifications and damage to team culture that come with that assessment, are the players really supposed to be worse? GMs and organizations tank: players and coaches don't. They want to win. Their job is to compete and try and win games, and that's what they're doing. There's nothing to be done about it, but ride it out. So what are we even talking about, here? Should the fans be upset their team is beating teams like the Warriors and Rockets?

It's a sticky wicket, and no, there's nothing the players or fans can do about it. But that doesn't change the reality.

If you want the practical application, it's that the Heat need to continue to look at trading whoever they are looking to trade. Both Whiteside and Dragic were mentioned in trade talks earlier this year. Will their value be any higher than right now? What is more valuable: the short-term gains those players can provide, or the long-term assets they could garner in trade?

Miami will probably not be affected by this run and will still make assessments based on the value of any deal offered. But if the debate is whether to let this group ride or try and get ahead of whenever they fall back to Earth, the answer is that they should prioritize the long-term future.

Couple of extra things on this streak.

1. It's not like the Heat were trending up overall before the streak. They had lost 10 of 11 before this run began. Their one win in there was against the Kings.

2. Just like it was with last year's Blazers, context matters. Yes, they beat the Warriors, and that was a great win. But the Warriors were on an East Coast road trip, which players always struggle with, and it sure seemed like they, uh, had enjoyed the scenery on South Beach the night before. They beat the Rockets, during what was the worst stretch of their season. They faced the Sixers without Joel Embiid, and the Bulls, Pistons and Bucks during slumps. Yes, you can rip apart any team's schedule, but if you really examine the streak without just a surface-level examination, it still looks impressive, but it makes you want to see how this will go in the long-term.

3. During this streak, they have seven players shooting better than 35 percent from deep. Up until January 1, the Heat were 24th in 3-point shooting, at 34 percent. During the streak? They're at 43.8 percent from 3. Regression isn't just likely, it's inevitable.

4. Finally, let's forget about what a top-five pick can do for them. What does this streak really do for them? What's the upside?

... winning games, which is the whole point of competitive basketball.

Who knows how this ends? What if they fall back to Earth a little bit, but keep playing .650 or .750 ball and land a sixth seed? That's not out of the question. Then, what if they make a little noise in the first or second round? Showing that this team has a winning core and is a playoff team can only help for their free agency pursuits. Winning is fun. As HeatBeat wrote this week:

Right now Miami is playing some of the best basketball in the NBA, Goran Dragic is red hot, and Dion Waiters has been a ball of pure fun. This play may not be sustainable. This play may even hurt the long term future of the franchise. But right now? Right now Miami is fun. If fun isn't a satisfactory outcome for you as a viewer, I don't know what you want. Sports are entertainment. Miami is entertaining. For now, that should be enough. Any questions about the future will be answered in the future. Until then, I would suggest that we all enjoy the ride of Miami's recent success and allow sports to be a source of joy in our lives instead of a source of anxiety.

Make Sports Fun Again.

Source: Streak in Perspective: Chill Out and Enjoy the Ride - Miami Heat Beat

They should try and win.

Go ask the fans of the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers about that.

This is a formula for being trapped in the NBA's purgatory. Some of this is a product of how great the Heat were when Dwyane Wade was there. If they put a half-decent team around Wade, they could compete. There was always a chance when Wade was there. Miami won the title in 2006, spent one year rebuilding in 2008, and were back in the title picture in 2010. They haven't been in a long cycle of just being "OK," which is the absolute upside of this team.

The Sixers in 2012 scrapped their way to a sub-.500 8th seed, and beat the Bulls when Derrick Rose's injury happened. That was the peak of their entire run when built around Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday. Then they gambled on Andrew Bynum, the bottom fell out and the Process began.

This is the real danger with this winning streak. It could wind up getting the team focused on just being OK, because "They really can play well at times." Dragic and Whiteside are just good enough to keep you competitive without being good enough to actually be a serious threat.

Part of this is considering the Heat in terms of their franchise identity. If this were the 2013 Charlotte Bobcats, then sure. Just having a fun run is something. Anything positive is enough. But the Heat have set a higher bar. They are a championship-driven organization, they have been since Pat Riley arrived. Should they really be aiming for "good?"

And as for the free agency ... the Heat have swung out, badly, on LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Durant the past two summers. Free agency next summer is top heavy, and most of the big names (Blake Griffin, Steph Curry, etc.) are widely expected to stay home. The 16th-best free agent on my list right now is Danilo Gallinari. Is he making the Heat a serious threat in the East? Are any of the top players really going to say "I'm really excited because you went on the longest winning streak for a team under .500 in NBA history?"

There are just so many ways that this winds up with the Heat getting locked in a situation where they can't improve, but changes never come. They're just here, getting excited about win streaks when they're under-.500 or slightly above, year after year. That's a bad place to be and somewhere Miami has done a great job of avoiding. But then, much of that was because of the individual brilliance of Wade.

Probability is not inevitability, and the future is unknowable.

Basketball teams are constantly evolving, and new stars emerge every day. No one knew who Hassan Whiteside was two years ago, now he's a max player. Kawhi Leonard was a good role player when he came into the league, now he's an MVP candidate.

Or take the Raptors. They were one of those mediocre teams you talk about, then they traded Rudy Gay, Kyle Lowry emerged as an All-Star, and now they're one of the biggest threats to the Cavs in the East (even though that's not saying much). Their fans wouldn't trade this run for anything. Why can't Miami be like Toronto?

Doubting Pat Riley is perilous. He's proven time and time again he can connect with the league's stars, and he's got the South Beach lifestyle to back him up. Miami can win now, win in the future, win forever.

Viva la win streak!

Excitement is good, but team building is better.

Miami's schedule is really soft until March 4 when they have a home and home with Cleveland. They could conceivably stretch the winning streak to 20 of 21 (or better?) between now and then. But their March schedule is brutal. As great as this 11-game winning streak looks, how does it look after a five-game losing streak? If the Wizards lose five in a row, they're in a small slump in a great season, and same for Houston or Boston. If the Heat lose five in a row? They're back to being 13 games under .500 and facing a gulf between them and the playoffs.

It's fine to enjoy the winning streak. The players are playing well, there's good talent on this team and Spoelstra's done another terrific job. But the Heat need to keep their eye on the prize, a return to championship contention and there's little in the makeup of this particular team that makes you think they're on that path.