Rockets have a crazy plan to beat Warriors at their own game, and it just might work

Houston aims to shoot 50 3s per game. Is overwhelming the Dubs on offense the way to stop them?

In a July piece shortly after Kevin Durant abandoned the Thunder to join the Warriors team that had just ousted OKC from the playoffs, Jared Dubin wrote a piece for Vice outlining the issues that scouts, coaches and league executives saw with the problem of trying to contain this juggernaut. This was the end conclusion on the best tactic to stop Golden State:

Tactic: Pray 

Reasoning: None of this other stuff is likely to actually work 

Drawback: Neither will this 

It probably means something that this was such a popular suggestion.

Source: How Teams Might (Possibly) (But Probably Not) Beat The Warriors | VICE Sports. 

And, lo, the Warriors’ offense is mighty. Golden State has the No. 1 offense with a 114.1 offensive rating. They’re a juggernaut. Oh, and they’re second in defense as well. It’s for this and plenty of other reasons that so many are already chalking up the Larry O’Brien for the Warriors, and with good reason. Let’s be very clear before we go any further: Any examination of the entire course of the season, the players, matchups and both anecdotal and statistical evidence drives you to the conclusion that the Warriors are going to win the NBA championship this season, even with respect to LeBron James and the never-ending 3-1 jokes (which remain hilarious). 

That said, what if we’re looking at this entirely the wrong way? What if you’re not going to stop the Warriors? What if the objective needs to be overwhelming them with offense?

THE JUGGERNAUT COMPLEX

So here’s a stat for you. Last season, the Warriors had 21 games where they hit 10 or fewer 3-pointers, which was 25.6 percent of their games. This season, they’ve already had 18, which accounts for 36 percent of their games. They’ve shown a weird penchant for going cold this year. It bit them against Memphis in the Grizzlies’ 24-point comeback, it bit them against the Cavaliers down the stretch on Christmas. It’s still rare -- this is still the greatest shooting team on the planet. But it happens more than it used to. You can catch them on a bad night a little more than you could last season. 

Of course, the Warriors are still 11-7 in those games. They still win, in large part because of their defense. But they’re a bit more vulnerable this year on that end as well, on a game-by-game basis. The Warriors’ defense has a better ranking this year because all NBA defenses have been worse this year (or more accurately, the offenses have been better), but their raw number per possession is still worse than last season. They’ve also given up a higher percentage of games with a defensive rating over 110 than last year. 

In the past, the way to beat the Warriors has been to counter them. The Grizzlies are credited with putting the boots to them two years ago in going up 2-1. The Thunder pushed them to the edge with swarming, athletic defense. The thought process goes that in order to beat the Warriors, you must beat them up, play physical, dominate them on the glass, grind them down, slow them down, wear them out. 

Some of that’s true, and some of that has to be part of any playoff approach. That’s just the nature of the playoffs. 

The problem that Memphis and the Thunder both found was the Math Problem. You score 2-pointers because your roster is stacked with big, tough, defensive-minded guys, while the Warriors bomb 3s constantly. 

So what if that plan is flawed? What if you’re never going to actually slow down a Steph Curry-Kevin Durant pick and roll? What if you’re not going to stop a team with four All-NBA players ready to launch at all times? How do you beat that? 

Enter the Houston Rockets, and an audacious plan. 

BOMBS AWAY

Houston wants to average 50 3-point attempts per game. That’s insane, but it’s the plan. Mike D’Antoni has openly said that his goal for the remainder of the season is to get the Rockets to 50 3-pointers launched a night. Houston is No. 1 in makes (892) and attempts (2,462) from behind the arc this season, and just 13th in percentage (36.2) thanks to a bizarre January slump. They are chucking, constantly. 

Sometimes the Rockets don’t even really regard what kind of shot they’re taking. They just launch because they feel it’s the shot to take. D’Antoni encourages this. He’s always wanted his players to shoot with confidence above all else, and it’s part of what brings the ball energy and boosts the offensive efficiency. The Rockets this season are averaging 140 percent of the league averages of 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. So take how often the average team shoots 3s, then add 40 percent of that total, and that’s how high the rate is that Houston is letting it fly. It’s MoreyBall taken go the extreme, it’s Seventy Threes Or More. 

The Rockets basically have built an offense around the Math Problem. If they can get everyone healthy, and get a hot series from Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, that’s going to get them into the ballgame. Some of this is built around the idea of beating the Warriors at their own game. And there’s a psychological element as well. The Warriors thrive in chaos and on the home run ball. If you are able to counter that by matching their insane runs of offense with your own, they tend to reach further and further for the heat check. The Rockets don’t have a heat check, because all those random launches are part of their offensive scheme and aren’t dominated by one particular player. 

If anything, their MVP candidate James Harden brings a more deliberate approach. That’s the balance that makes it work. Harden grinds you down with his dribble, his Euro-step, his crossover, his control, and the second his pass hits hands, the shot is going up. 

The Rockets have an astonishing 31 games with at least 15 made 3-pointers this season. That’s the most in NBA history, already surpassing Golden State’s total of 27 from last year. What’s more? The Rockets are 15-15 this season when making fewer than 15 3-pointers. In those 31 games where they make at least 15? 

Houston is 27-4. 

Yes, making more shots is going to lead to more wins, but it’s the fact that not only do they have so many such games, but when they get there, they are almost impossible to beat. 

This is the plan for beating Golden State, if there is one. The Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz, should they face the Warriors, will try and have a great defense to slow them down and hope that a mediocre offense will have just enough to get them to wins. The Spurs will try and match efficiency while grinding the pace down and making it an old school-style game. The Rockets, on the other hand, are just going to play the numbers. They’re hoping a decent defense (currently ranked 15th) will get them into a position where Golden State isn’t outpacing them, and they’ll count on their volume of 3s to carry them there. 

Maybe it’s crazy. Maybe it’s a fool’s errand like it sounds, trying to trade shots with the best offense in NBA history led by the two greatest shooters in the history of the sport. And the Rockets still have to get through a brutal Western Conference to even have a chance, which is far from certain. But it’s a plan. And if the Rockets find a way to the conference finals and a matchup with Golden State, get ready for fireworks. The Rockets are not bringing a knife to a gun fight. They are the only team in the West that can match the Warriors with firepower.

If you can’t stop the Warriors, don’t try. Just try to blaze hotter than their inferno.