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Week 13 of "Monday Night Football" is a must-win game for the Colts. Though they're only a game back of the Texans -- clearly still within striking distance -- they can't afford to drop a game to the 3-8 Jets. This just isn't the kind of game that a playoff-caliber team (even one that plays in the AFC South) can lose.

The Colts will feel fortunate that Andrew Luck is coming back. Luck suffered a concussion during the Colts' win over the Titans two weeks ago and missed their Thanksgiving night loss to the Steelers. Scott Tolzien filled in quite admirably given the difficult circumstances (short week, tough opponent, the fact that he's not a good quarterback, etc.), but he's not Luck. The Colts need their QB.

Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a nail-biting loss to the Patriots. They actually played some of their best football of the season, particularly on defense, but in typical Jets fashion they allowed a late Tom Brady touchdown and then Ryan Fitzpatrick did what he does best: give the ball away. For the Jets, the season is already over.

All of those factors are the main reasons why I'm picking the Colts to beat the Jets.

The Colts are the desperate team. The Jets are the team that has nothing to play for. The Colts have a good quarterback. The Jets have FitzTragic. With that being said, I think the Jets will hang around, because the Colts' defense is awful.

The pick: Colts 27, Jets 24

Here are five stats to back up that prediction:

1. Colts defense: Worst in the NFL

Chuck Pagano's defense has been awful this year. USATSI

It's honestly tough to pick the Colts to win any game, really, because they might just have the worst defense in all of football. They allow 395 yards per game (third-worst in the NFL) and 27.4 points per game (fifth-worst). They've forced just eight turnovers all season long. They're the NFL's worst defense by DVOA. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) is a method of evaluating teams, units or players and it takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts only apply quarterback pressure 24.1 percent of the time. Context: If a quarterback was under pressure at that rate all season long, he'd have the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Collectively, the Colts are PFF's lowest-graded pass-rushing team.

Their secondary is a disaster. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 104.9 passer rating against the Colts, per PFF. This is pretty wild: On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, opposing quarterbacks have gone 16-of-50 for 522 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions, which comes out to a 111.8 passer rating.

So, Brandon Marshall might have a big day, especially considering top cornerback Vontae Davis is battling a groin injury. Marshall's been experiencing a down year, catching just 49 percent of his targets, but he did score a touchdown a week ago.

The Jets' running game, led by Matt Forte, could also see some success. As a team, the Jets average the 10th most yards per carry (4.3) and the Colts' defense gives up 4.6 yards per carry (tied for the fourth worst).

The Colts' defense is why I think the Jets will hang around. But, luckily for the Colts, they're facing an offense and, to be more specific, a quarterback that just isn't any good.

2. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Still bad

Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't been a wise investment. USATSI

By this point, I'm sick of writing about Ryan Fitzpatrick. Throughout his decade-long career, he's never been any good. Yet, because he threw a ton of touchdown passes a year ago, the Jets decided to bring him back, but not before engaging in the world's longest contract standoff.

Fitzpatrick has been awful this season and he's the reason why I can't take the Jets in this game, even if the Colts' defense is just as bad. On the season, Fitzpatrick is completing 57.6 percent of his passes (30th) and averaging 6.82 yards per pass (25th). He's thrown 10 touchdowns (tied for 27th) and 13 picks (tied for the most). His passer rating? 72.2 (tied for the worst).

He did, though, play relatively well against the Patriots, throwing two touchdowns and compiling a 115.2 passer rating. But that game wasn't the first time Fitzpatrick has gone off this season. In two other games (against the Bills and Ravens), he posted passer ratings right around 115. After those games, he posted passer ratings of 18.2 and 79.0 (against the Browns, too). The point being, Fitzpatrick is still inconsistent and not trustworthy. He'll go off one week and then experience three or four awful weeks.

That's just who he is.

3. Jets red zone offense

Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the NFL in red zone picks. USATSI

One reason why Fitzpatrick's numbers are down? His inefficiency in the red zone. He leads the NFL in red zone interceptions with five.

As a whole, the Jets have the worst red zone offense by touchdown percentage (41.67 percent). And, despite the Colts' clear issues on defense, they're actually not awful in the red zone. They're ranked 11th in red zone defense.

4. Andrew Luck: Still good

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Andrew Luck is ready to return after a concussion. USATSI

Unlike Fitzpatrick, Luck can carve up a bad defense. And the Jets are bad -- not as bad as the Colts, but still not good. They don't take the ball away (eight takeaways like the Colts), they allow 24.2 points per game (21st), and they're ranked 23rd in DVOA.

So, how can Luck beat the Jets? He can target Darrelle Revis. The former shutdown corner is allowing a 111.0 passer rating, a 67.2 completion percentage, and 13 yards per reception when he's in coverage, according to PFF.

As a whole, the Jets are responsible for a 94.5 passer rating by opposing quarterbacks. And, as previously mentioned, they don't intercept many passes. Expect a big and turnover free day from Luck.

On the season, Luck is completing a career-high 62.9 percent of his passes and has thrown 19 touchdowns.

5. Special teams matter (again)

Adam Vinatieri has been nearly perfect this year. USATSI

Yep, for the second consecutive week, we're talking about special teams. The Colts have the fifth-best special teams by DVOA. That might be hard to believe considering they did this a year ago:


Meanwhile, the Jets have the worst special teams by DVOA.

Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri has missed two field goals this year and is perfect on extra points. Jets kicker Nick Folk has missed five kicks (three field goals and two extra points).

The Colts average 27.1 yards per kick return, the second-highest average. The Jets give up 24.3 yards per kick return, the sixth-worst average.

In a close game, special teams might be the difference.