'Monday Night Football' prediction: Lions fall to Cowboys, can't clinch playoff spot
Plus five stats to know about the game
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5 min read
When the Lions head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys on Monday, they'll know two things:
- Their Week 17 game against the Packers will decide the NFC North regardless of what happens Monday.
- They can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie against the Cowboys.
Meanwhile, when the Cowboys host the Lions, they'll know these two things:
- They've already locked up homefield advantage regardless of what happens Monday.
- On Saturday, the Titans lost Marcus Mariota and the Raiders lost Derek Carr to injuries on fairly innocuous plays, both of which ruined their seasons.
The point being, the Cowboys have absolutely nothing to play for on Monday night, but they have everything to lose, evidenced by what happened to Mariota and Carr. But the Lions have everything to play for, because there's no guarantee they can beat the Packers in Week 17, and if they lose their final two games, they could be sitting on the sidelines during the playoffs.
With all that being said, I'm taking the Cowboys to win this game, even if it doesn't matter much to them. For as much as folks like to talk about desire and who wants/needs to win more, something other than desire is almost always more important: talent. And the Cowboys are the more talented club.
The pick: Cowboys 34, Lions 24
The Cowboys and Lions are a combined 21-7, so Week 16 of "Monday Night Football" should be a good one. Onto the stats ...
1. Matthew Stafford since his finger injury
In the early going of the Lions' win over the Bears on Dec. 11, Matthew Stafford hurt the middle finger of his throwing hand. Here's his stat line in the past two games compared to the first 12 games of the year:
| Comp. % | YPA | TDs | INTs | Passer Rating | |
| Vs. Bears | 60 | 6.37 | 1 | 2 | 64.3 |
| Vs. Giants | 61.5 | 7.00 | 0 | 1 | 71.8 |
| Games 1-12 | 67.2 | 7.45 | 21 | 5 | 100.5 |
Maybe Stafford's recent slide is unrelated to his injury. Maybe the Giants shut him down because they're a pretty good defense. Or maybe Stafford is having issues with his finger.
Either way, Stafford has not played like the MVP-caliber quarterback he was at the beginning of the season. The sample size of his slump is small, but if he struggles against the Cowboys, it might be time for Detroit to begin worrying. Their quarterback is trending the wrong way.
2. Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott are trending up
Remember when Dak Prescott struggled against the Giants (45.4 passer rating) and the idea of inserting Tony Romo into the starting lineup was raised? So much for that.
Prescott put an end to the controversy with a tremendous outing in a win over the Buccaneers. In all, he went 32 of 36 for 279 yards and a 99.0 passer rating, and he scored a touchdown on the ground. It was exactly the kind of performance Prescott needed.
Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott is also trending in the right direction. After three straight games of failing to reach the 100-yard rushing mark, Elliott's averaged 133 yards in his past two games.
But you already knew that Prescott and Zeke were tearing it up this season. So, let's look at how they can attack the Lions' defense.
The short answer is that they should see plenty of success. Detroit's defense, ranked 31st in DVOA (only the Browns are worse), isn't particularly good at anything. They allow 4.2 yards per rush (18th) and 7.4 yards per pass (20th). According to Pro Football Focus, the Lions have allowed a 102.1 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. They're tied for 27th with 14 takeaways. So yes, they can be beat -- both in the air and on the ground.
Look for the Cowboys' unstoppable duo to continue their stellar seasons.
3. The Lions' red zone woes
One area the Lions will need to improve in if they want to keep up with the Cowboys is the red zone. It's been an issue all season long.
They're scoring a touchdown on just 51.22 percent of their red zone trips. According to The Detroit Free Press, the Lions have kicked six field goals, scored three touchdowns, and turned the ball over three times in their past 12 red-zone trips. On the other side, the Cowboys' defense is allowing a touchdown on 52.17 percent of their red-zone series.
This isn't looking like a favorable matchup for the Lions.
4. The Cowboys' overachieving defense
The Cowboys' defense isn't talked about much because of their dominant offense, but they've been better than most expected. They're actually tied (with Denver!) for the fourth-fewest points allowed per game (18.4).
In their past three games, they've been effective at getting after the passer, registering 10 sacks. That's an important sign, because if there's one thing that can get teams far into the postseason, it's a menacing pass rush.
5. What if Tony Romo plays?
So, here's the thing about the Cowboys: Having Tony Romo and Dak Prescott on the same roster was the greatest possible outcome -- dumb controversy aside. Just ask the the Raiders and Titans, whose seasons ended to varying degrees due to quarterback injuries. But if the Cowboys lose Prescott to an injury at some point, they'll be just fine -- perhaps even better -- with Romo under center.
Here's why this is relevant for Monday night: At some point, the Cowboys might want to give Romo some reps for the first time since the preseason, both to help him shake off some rust so that he's ready to go in the event Prescott goes down, and to give Prescott some rest so that he can avoid what happened to Carr and Mariota.
So, will Romo sub in for Prescott against the Lions? That remains to be seen (he won't start, of course), but there's definitely a chance he could see the field now that the Cowboys have clinched everything they can clinch.
"We haven't really talked about any of the roster stuff or guys playing," said offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, per the Star-Telegram. "Of course, we would love to see our guys get reps and things like that. But it's really more on what we've got to do to get ready for Detroit right now. We haven't talked about that yet."
But if Romo does play, don't expect the Cowboys' performance to drop off. It won't be a reason to think the Lions should suddenly be favored. In 2014, when Romo started 15 games with a dominant ground game led by DeMarco Murray, he posted a higher completion percentage, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating than Prescott has this year.
The point being, the entire "Dallas might rest their key starters" argument for liking the Lions to win might go out the window if it's Romo, who is looking to impress offseason suitors, under center for a portion of Monday night. The Lions wouldn't necessarily be catching a break if they dodge Prescott for a half or quarter.
