NFL Week 5 early odds: Patriots are huge favorites in Tom Brady's return
Here's an early look at the lines for all NFL games being played in Week 5
By
John Breech
•
9 min read
After taking a peek at the early odds for Week 5, it looks like there might actually be one group that's more excited about Tom Brady's return than the Patriots are: Bettors.
When Brady's suspension was officially reinstated back in July, the Patriots-Cardinals game in Week 1 went from a pick'em to the Cardinals being favored by 5.5 points at some books. Brady was worth at least five points in almost every book.
The Brady effect works both ways though, and we found that out on Sunday night when the Patriots opened up as a seven-point favorite over the Browns. Brady will be making his 2016 debut this week in Cleveland and bettors were quick to jump all over the Patriots.
A few hours after the line opened, the Patriots were bet up all the way to a 10-point favorite.
Of course, getting Brady back isn't the only reason to like the Patriots in Week 5. New England will also be getting another weapon back: A healthy Gronk.
Although Rob Gronkowski has played for the past two weeks, he's been on a limited snap count and has only caught a total of one pass this season. That's right, one pass.
You can bet Brady will do his best to make sure that Gronk adds to that total in Cleveland. Besides Gronk, Brady will also get to throw to Martellus Bennett for the first time in a regular-season game. Brady's going to have more weapons than he knows what to do with.
The only reason you might want to stay away from the Patriots is because there's a chance that Brady will have some rust to work off. Keep in mind, he wasn't allowed to practice with any teammates during his suspension, so it wouldn't be shocker if his timing is slightly off with his receivers during his first game back.
He might have also suffered some jet lag after the trip to Italy in Week 3.
Anyway, besides Brady and the Patriots, let's find out who else might be a popular bet in this week.
NFL Week 5 Odds
Cardinals at 49ers (Opening line: Cardinals, -4 points)
Current line: Cardinals (-1.5 points). With a 2.5 point swing, this line took one of the biggest early jumps of Week 5, and that's mainly because no one knows for sure if Carson Palmer is going to play on Thursday. The Cardinals quarterback entered concussion protocol after taking a big hit against the Rams. After the loss to L.A., Cardinals coach Bruce Arians didn't sound too confident that Palmer would play. If Palmer can't go, that mean's you're betting on Drew Stanton. Stanton hasn't started a game since 2014 when he went 5-3 in Palmer's absence.
Texans at Vikings (Opening line: Vikings, -6 points)
Current line: Vikings (-6 points). Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler has thrown at least one interception in every game he's played in this season, which means no one should be surprised if he struggles against the Vikings. The Vikings against an AFC team is almost always a safe bet: Minnesota is an NFC-best 10-3 ATS vs. AFC teams since 2013. The Texans are 4-9 straight-up against the NFC since the beginning of 2013. These teams have only met a total of three times ever, with Minnesota holding a 3-0 lead.
Titans at Dolphins (Opening line: Dolphins, -4)
Current line: Dolphins (-3.5). Both these teams are 1-3 and both of them are going to be desperate on Sunday, which might not make much difference for the Titans because they've had an ugly record recently as a road underdog. Since 2013, the Titans are 5-13 ATS as a road underdog, which is the worst record in the AFC during that timespan. Of course, betting on the Dolphins might not be the best idea: They currently have a defense that's ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of yards surrendered.
Patriots at Browns (Opening line: Patriots, -7)
Current line: Patriots (-10). Bettors are clearly expecting the "Tom Brady scorched earth tour" to start this week because this line has made a huge three-point jump since the line opened on Sunday. If you haven't heard, Brady will be returning this week after being suspended for the first four games of the season. Of course, Brady's return might not be the only thing spurring the big line movement here, it might also have something to do with the fact that the Patriots are almost unbeatable after a loss. Since 2011, New England is an NFL-best 13-6 ATS after a loss.
Jets at Steelers (Opening line: Steelers, -6 points)
Current line: Steelers (-6.5 points). This line made a small movement toward the Steelers and that's probably because bettors are eager to wager against Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets quarterback has thrown 10 interceptions through four games, an ugly feat that's only been accomplished by one other quarterback since 2000 (Daunte Culpepper, 2005). The Jets would love to have Eric Decker back for this game, but that probably won't happen because the receiver has a partially torn rotator cuff. Anyway, if you need another reason to bet against New York: The Steelers are 5-2 ATS as home favorites since 2015, the fourth-best mark in the NFL in that timespan. One of those wins came against the Chiefs on Sunday night, and I'm sure you saw what happened in that game.
Redskins at Ravens (Opening line: Ravens, -4)
Current line: Ravens, (-3.5). If you're looking for a team to bet against, you might want to go with the Ravens. Since the beginning of 2015, the Ravens are just 1-5-1 ATS as home favorites, a record that includes their Week 4 loss to the Raiders. On the other hand, the Redskins aren't exactly a road team you want to bet on. Since the beginning of 2013, Washington is just 10-15 ATS in all road games. This will be the Redskins' first trip to Baltimore since 2008, a city where they've never beaten the Ravens there (0-3).
Eagles at Lions (Opening line: Lions, -2.5 points)
Current line: Eagles, -2.5 points. The most surprising opening line of Week 5 might be this one, with the 1-3 Lions getting 2.5 points against the undefeated Eagles. Bettors pounced on the Eagle-friendly line and this thing quickly moved five points in the Eagles direction. If you think the Eagles are for real and that they're being undervalued, then this is probably a good game to grab them in. The Eagles are one of just two teams -- along with the Broncos -- who are unbeaten against the spread in 2016 heading into Week 5 (the Vikings could join that list if they cover against the Giants on Monday night).
Bears at Colts (Opening line: Colts, -5 points)
Current line: Colts, -4.5 points. There are two important things to keep in mind before betting this game. First, the Colts will be the first team ever to not get a bye after a trip to London. Colts players admitted that they had trouble getting used to the time change in London, so it wouldn't be a complete shock if they had some trouble on the trip back. The other thing to keep an eye on is who the Bears' starting quarterback will be. It's not clear if Jay Cutler or Brian Hoyer will be playing for Chicago. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their past five games against the AFC.
Falcons at Broncos (Opening line: Broncos, -7)
Current line: Broncos, -4.5 points. After watching the Falcons shred the Panthers defense in Week 4, bettors quickly jumped on the Falcons in this game. There's also some mystery surrounding Denver's quarterback situation heading into Week 5. If Trevor Sieimian (sprained AC joint) isn't able to play, that means Paxton Lynch will be called upon to make his first career start. Of course, the way the Broncos defense is playing, it might not matter who the quarterback is.
With their win today, Broncos are 1st team since 86 Bears to have 6+game win streak w/4 diff QBs playing (Siemian, Lynch, PM, Osweiler).
— Patrick Smyth (@psmyth12) October 3, 2016
Also, the Broncos are 15-3 straight-up against NFC teams since 2012, and are on a nine-game winning streak straight-up dating back to last season.
Bills at Rams (Opening line: Rams, -1.5 points)
Current line: Rams, -3 points. After three straight wins, it's starting to look like the Rams are for real, and bettors were ready to pounce when this line opened. After two weeks on the road, the Rams finally get to return to Los Angeles for just their second home game of the season. L.A. has been pretty friendly for the Rams so far, including the preseason, the Rams are 3-0 straight-up at home. Of course, going on the road probably doesn't bother the Bills: They're 9-5-1 ATS overall since 2014 as a road underdog, a total that includes their Week 4 win at New England.
Chargers at Raiders (Opening line: Raiders, -3.5 points)
Current line: Raiders, (-4.5 points). If you can put a team in the bad bet Hall of Fame, that's probably where the Chargers belong. For the past four weeks, the Chargers have been breaking the hearts of bettors who put money on them. In all three of their losses, the Chargers have blown a fourth quarter lead, including Week 4 when they blew a 13-point lead to New Orleans in the final five minutes. As for the Raiders, this being favored thing is kind of new to them, and so far, they're not good at it. Since 2014, Oakland is 0-3 ATS in home games where they're the favorite, which makes them just one of two teams that hasn't covered in that situation (Titans are 0-4). Overall, the Raiders are just 6-10 ATS at home over over the past two seasons. The last four games in this series have been decided by an average of 5.3 points with each team winning one game at home and one game on the road.
Bengals at Cowboys (Opening line: Bengals, -1 point)
Current line: Pick'em. If there's one thing Andy Dalton has done well in his career, it's dominate NFC teams. Since his rookie year in 2011, Dalton is 14-4-1 straight up against NFC teams. The Bengals have also been pretty strong ATS during Dalton's career, going 13-4-3 ATS, which is the best mark in the NFL since 2011. On the other hand, the Cowboys have also been pretty dominant against the opposite conference. Since 2011, Dallas is 12-7-1 ATS against the AFC, which is the best record of any team in the NFC during that timespan. With the game currently a pick'em, you'll want to make sure to keep one eye on the health of Tyler Eifert. If the Bengals tight end is good to go this week, that could be the boost that makes the Bengals worth betting. The last time the Bengals beat the Cowboys in Dallas came in 1988, which also happens to be the last time the Bengals went to the Super Bowl.
Giants at Packers (Opening line: Packers, -6.5 points)
Current line: Packers, (-7 points). Although the Packers' run defense has been nearly impenetrable this season, the same can't be said for their pass defense. The Packers have given up over 180 yards to two different receivers this year (Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones), which means that stopping Odell Beckham and the Giants receiving corps could be a problem. The Packers do get this game at home in primetime, which actually isn't necessarily a good thing. Since 2014, the Packers are just 4-3 ATS in home primetime games (5-2 straight-up). Basically, if you're only reason for betting Green Bay is the Lambeau mystique, don't do it.
Buccaneers at Panthers (Opening line: Panthers, -6 points)
Current line: Panthers, (-6 points). This line hasn't moved at all since opening on Sunday and that's likely due to the fact that no one knows what the status of Cam Newton is right now. The Panthers quarterback was diagnosed with a concussion after the the Panthers' loss on Sunday and there's no guarantee that he'll be able to play against Tampa. If Newton can go, that's good news for the Panthers, who are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS vs. the Bucs since 2013.
