The Chiefs' floundering offense can get going if the run game finds its legs vs. Bills
Kareem Hunt has fallen off after a hot start, but he can get back on track against Buffalo
Through the first five weeks of the 2017 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs had the best offense in football. The Chiefs were creating chunk gains on seemingly every other play, as Alex Smith's newfound downfield accuracy paid off in a big way for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The foundation of that explosive and efficient offense, though, was the Kareem Hunt-led running game.
Hunt got off to one of the best starts to a career for any running back in the history of the league. After fumbling on his first career carry, all Hunt did was set the all-time record for most total yards in an NFL debut, while also reaching the end zone three times in a season-opening win against the Patriots. He kept the hot streak going over the next few weeks, totaling 97 carries for 609 yards (6.28 per carry) and four touchdowns over the first five games of the season. He added 16 catches for 166 yards and two additional scores through the air. At that point, he was one of the MVP frontrunners.
Since then, both he and the Chiefs' offense have come crashing down to earth. Kansas City has gone from a 5-0 stretch during which they averaged 32.8 points per game to a 1-4 stretch during which they managed just 19.6 points per game. Hunt, meanwhile, has seen his per-carry figures crater and hasn't found the end zone at all.

What happened? Well, a lot of it has to do with the offensive line. Kansas City has battled through numerous injuries up front, and it's affected the quality of blocking Hunt has received. Through five weeks, Hunt averaged 2.79 yards per carry before first contact, per Pro Football Focus. Since Week 6, that figure has dropped to 0.87 per carry. Obviously, that's a massive difference. His yards after contact per carry average has dropped as well -- from 3.49 to 2.60 -- but not to nearly the same degree.
Having to fight through contact earlier has also prevented Hunt from breaking his signature long runs. He had nine carries go for 15 or more yards through the first five games of the season, and has just three such runs since. And those long runs themselves have gained fewer yards. His average "long" run went for 33.22 yards during the opening stretch of the season and has gone for just 22.67 yards since.
During the more recent stretch of games, the Chiefs' play-calling with Hunt in the game has also changed. Overall, the Chiefs called for a run (whether by Hunt himself, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, or Alex Smith) on 51.3 percent of his snaps through that early stretch of the season, but that number has dropped all the way to 41.6 percent over the last five games.
The way his touches are distributed has also shifted. Hunt touched the ball (or was the intended target on a pass) on 51.8 percent of his plays during the first five games of the year. He had 97 runs and 17 rushes, an 85-15 split. Over the last five games, he's touched the ball on 46.7 percent of his snaps, but the run-pass mix has dripped to 74-26.
Luckily for the Chiefs, they are about to (pardon the pun) run up against a defense that has been as friendly to opposing run games as possible over the last few weeks, which should provide an opportunity for Hunt to get back on track.
During the first seven games of the season, only two of the Buffalo Bills' opponents ran for more than 77 yards in a game. Each of their last three opponents, however, has run for at least 144 yards. Buffalo traded Marcell Dareus to the Jaguars prior to Week 9, and since then, their run defense has completely fallen off the face of the earth.

Note: Dareus also sat out the Bills' Week 3 and 8 games, during which the Broncos and Raiders totaled 165 rushing yards on 37 carries (4.51 per carry) and scored two rushing touchdowns.
Since the trade, the Jets lit up the Bills for 194 yards and three scores on the ground, the Saints rumbled for 298 yards and an incredible six touchdowns, and the Chargers slumped to 146 yards and only two end zone trips. The Bills have also given up 13 carries of 15-plus yards during those three games (seven different players have done it: Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Troy Edmunds, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and Derek Watt), meaning an incredible 10.48 percent of opponent carries have gone for long gains. By way of comparison, Hunt led the league with nine carries of 15-plus yards during the first five weeks of the season, and that total represented 9.28 percent of his carries.
There isn't a single Chiefs offensive lineman on the injury report this week, so the blocking against Buffalo's defensive front should be better than it has been in a while. If they can get adequate push and allow Hunt to get a few yards deep into the defensive formation before first contact, he still has the ability to break off long gains. (He had a couple called back by penalty against the Giants last week.)
If the Chiefs get back to creating wider running lanes for him with their misdirection-heavy play-calling that dominated the early part of the season, maybe he can really go off like he was at the start. And if they ever decide to give him the ball in the red zone (eight carries over the last five games compared to 12 in the first five), maybe he'll even find the end zone for the first time since Week 3 as well.
If and when the run game gets realigned, that will take some of the pressure off Alex Smith, who has simply had to do too much over the last several games. Putting him in more advantageous positions and allowing him to take targeted deep shots off play-action and run-pass option plays works far better than asking him to drop straight back close to 40 times per game like he has recently.
Getting back to a good mixture, with Hunt punishing teams coming downhill, Kelce working over the middle, and Hill streaking up the sidelines, is the best way for the Chiefs to attack opposing defenses. None of that works if Hunt isn't powering through the line of scrimmage, but this week represents the team's best chance to get him going for a big stretch run.
















