The Week in Overreactions: R-E-L-A-X, the Packers are still fine
New storylines emerge every week. Some are reasonable, most are not. 'The Week in Overreactions' focuses on the latter.
By
Ryan Wilson
•
6 min read
New storylines emerge every week. Some are reasonable, most are not. "The Week in Overreactions" focuses on the latter. Those items that offer a cursory "How do you do?" as they blow past reality straight for THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING THING EVER! We're here to keep everything in perspective. Questions, comments, casserole ideas? Hit us up on Twitter at @ryanwilson_07.
The Packers peaked too early!
Ah yes, the old, "You don't want to peak too early!" theory of winning football in December and January. The problem, like most theories based on hunches and gut feelings, is that they don't represent reality.
But this is the NFL, where no overreaction is too much (we're as guilty as anyone), despite storylines rewriting themselves every week.
Back in Week 1, the Packers were embarrassed by the Seahawks, and the knee-jerk reactions went something like this (again, we were front and center): "The 2014 Seahawks are somehow better than the team that won the Super Bowl! Oh, and the Packers are in trouble even though it's the first week of September!"
A few weeks later, the Packers had fallen to 1-2 and Aaron Rodgers would remind us all to chill the hell out. Green Bay went on to win nine of its next 10, including convincing victories over the Eagles and Patriots, before running into the Bills buzz saw on Sunday.
Truth be told, Rodgers looked awful against the Bills. He completed 17 of 42 passes for 185 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. He also lost a fumble in the end zone that resulted in a safety that pretty much sealed Green Bay's fate.
But here's the thing: That was the worst performance of Rodgers' career, one that dates back to 2008 when he became the starter. Sometimes guys have a bad day at the office. For Rodgers, who has yet to throw an interception this season at Lambeau Field -- and has 23 touchdown passes during that span -- that bad day came against one of the league's best defenses.
That's not revisionist history after the Bills shut down the Packers' high-powered offense. According to Football Outsiders, Buffalo's pass defense came into the game ranked first in the NFL, and the unit ranked second overall behind the Lions.
By the way:
Many of you have pointed this out to me, but yes the Bills swept the NFC North.
— Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL) December 14, 2014
Not surprisingly, Rodgers plays better at home than on the road. He's currently 7-0 at Lambeau Field but 3-4 elsewhere. But there are some caveats to this. The Week 1 loss in Seattle seems like a decade ago and has virtually no bearing on how the Packers have played over the last month of the season. Same holds for the early season loss to the Lions that led to Rodgers' "R-E-L-A-X" remarks.
In Week 8, the Packers lost in New Orleans to the Saints, but Rodgers tweaked his hamstring before halftime and the game went south from there. If anything, it reinforced that the Packers are an average offense without him. Then came Sunday's loss to the Bills, who weren't able to do much offensively, but harassed Rodgers into enough mistakes that it didn't matter.
Put another way: These four games rate much higher on the "good kind of loss" scale than, say, the Steelers inexplicably losing to the Buccaneers and Jets earlier this season.
Oh, and there's this: Rodgers wasn't the only reason the Packers flopped. Jordy Nelson, one of the league's best receivers, had a horrible game. This drop-that-woulda-been-a-touchdown served as a microcosm of the afternoon:
Of course, even when Nelson was open, Rodgers not only missed him, he ended up throwing an interception.
It happens.
One more thing: The Packers have never won in Buffalo, a fact everyone disregarded right up until the Bills won.
Green Bay is currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC, one game up on Philadelphia. But here's the good news: The Packers play at Tampa Bay this Sunday and wrap up the season at home against the Lions. The Bucs were an atrocious team before they put Gerald McCoy and Austin Seferian-Jenkins on injured reserve on Monday. And while Detroit has been one of the biggest surprises of the last month (a year ago, the wheels fell off down the stretch and it cost Jim Schwartz his job), the Packers are undefeated at home.
Green Bay's defense has also improved. Yes, they're still an average unit, but on most Sunday's that's more than enough with Rodgers, Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy.
And perhaps most important: Unless the Bills backdoor their way into the postseason, win out, and convince the league to hold the Super Bowl in Ralph Wilson Stadium, the Packers can put Sunday's loss behind them and focus on their final two regular-season games. Because there's no chance they miss the playoffs.
Johnny Manziel is the worst quarterback in human history!
It's easy to clown Johnny Manziel after that forgettable performance on Sunday, when the Bengals terrorized him for 60 minutes (when they weren't mocking him). The Browns were shut out, 30-0, and Johnny, ahem, Football finished 10 of 18 for 80 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
ESPN analyst and former Steelers running back Merril Hoge said before the game that Manziel had "first-round hype with sixth-round talent," and Manziel left little doubt about that assessment.
By Monday, Hoge said that, "[W]hoever drafted [Manziel] in Cleveland, they need to be fired," because, well, why not.
To Manziel's credit, he owned the loss. He called it "absolutely" humbling, and said of Hoge's remarks: "To me, I'm not really listening to the outside noise. I know I need to play better. If I don't, then people will continue to say things like that."
Look, there's no denying that Manziel was terrible, even by the historically low standards set by Cleveland Browns quarterbacks. But before we give him the Tim Tebow treatment, consider these five stat lines:
1) 12 of 37, 302 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, lost, 24-15
2) 13 of 23, 168 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, won, 44-13
3) 15 of 29, 129 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, won, 17-10
4) 16 of 37, 205 yards, 0 TD, 3 INTs, lost, 45-27
5) 18 of 34, 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, lost, 20-16
Those belong to some of the NFL's best passers, and it's how they performed in their first NFL start: 1) Peyton Manning, currently the top-rated quarterback, according to Football Outsiders; 2) Brady (No. 4, via FO); 3) Joe Flacco (No. 9); Matthew Stafford (No. 14); Russell Wilson (No. 18).
The point isn't that Manziel is destined for greatness, just that one game doesn't define the rest of his career. Maybe Hoge is right -- he was spot on when it came to Vince Young and Tim Tebow, though way off when it came to Aaron Rodgers. -- but we won't know for sure until Manziel has a full season under his belt, maybe more.
None of this changes the fact that Browns coach Mike Pettine was right to go with Manziel; Brian Hoyer hasn't played well in weeks. We know Hoyer's ceiling and it's akin to standing in Bilbo Baggins' Hobbit house. We have no idea what Manziel's ceiling is, and that's the entire point of this exercise.
About those other rookie quarterbacks
We just got finished preaching that Manziel's future is yet to be determined. It's not uncommon for rookies to have rough starts to their careers before eventually finding their way. Now we're about to contradict ourselves, but with this condition: In general, quarterbacks taken in Rounds 4-7 have short, low-impact NFL existences.
And that brings us to Texans fourth-rounder Tom Savage and Titans sixth-rounder Zach Mettenberger. Both players have been lost for the season due to injuries.
Savage saw his first action in Week 15, when he replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was 10 of 19 for 127 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. Mettenberger started six games (he went 0-6), and put up respectable numbers: 59.8 completion percentage, 1,412 yards, 8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions and a passer rating of 83.4.
And Savage and Mettenberger very well could be the the next Tom Brady, but as we wrote in May shortly after the draft, history suggests something much less. It's more likely that he'll never be his team's primary starter, will sport a 2-5 career record (if he's lucky), complete 54.7 percent of his passes and throw 3 touchdowns against 6 interceptions.
Just something to keep in mind as the Texans and Titans reevaluate their quarterback positions this offseason.
