Are the Minnesota Wild really contenders? (USATSI)
Are the Minnesota Wild really contenders? (USATSI)

Way back in January, right around the mid-point of the NHL season, we looked at the teams that were playing like Stanley Cup contenders.

When it came to identifying the teams, the methodology was simple: Find the common things teams that reach the Stanley Cup Final all do well, and see which teams were also successful in those areas during the 2014-15 season.

What we found is that teams that reach the Final tend to excel in three key categories: goals against, penalty killing and puck possession during 5-on-5 play as measured by unblocked shot attempt differential.

Teams that reach the Final -- and win the Cup -- tend to average a top-10 ranking in all three of these categories. Our initial post on this subject (which you can read here) looked at every Stanley Cup finalist as far back as 2007-08 and showed their rankings in those categories and how highly they ranked. To add to that, just to get a larger sampling, I recently went as far back as the 1997-98 season* and found that 25 of the 32 Stanley Cup finalists averaged a top-10 finish in those areas (you can see the entire list here and here).

(*A quick and slightly important note: 5-on-5 possession numbers from a total attempts standpoint are only tracked as far back as the 2007-08 season, so for the teams before then I had to simply look at overall shot differential, which admittedly will skew the numbers slightly, but the ability to outshoot a team overall is still a strong indicator of puck possession success, so I'm confident with it.)

It all makes sense, especially in the modern NHL where goal scoring is so limited. The average NHL game averages just over 5.4 goals, while each team is getting only a little more than three power plays. When the goal-scoring climate is that poor, and power plays are so limited, you better be keeping teams off the board. The best way to do that is to hang onto the puck as long as possible, kill the two or three penalties you have to every night and not give up shots.

With that said, let's see how teams across the league this season stack up in these areas.

Playoff teams are in bold, and as you can see, they are all pretty much in the top half of the league.

That is, all except Calgary. Always the outlier. It is actually pretty comical how far down they are from the rest of the playoff teams. What a weird season.

Which Teams Have The Stanley Cup Recipe In 2014-15?
Team GA PK Possession Average
Pittsburgh Penguins 11 3 3 5.7
Minnesota Wild 6 1 11 6.0
Chicago Blackhawks 2 10 7 6.3
St. Louis Blues 4 8 9 7.0
Montreal Canadiens 1 7 17 8.3
Winnipeg Jets 10 13 2 8.3
Tampa Bay Lightning 12 9 4 8.3
Los Angeles Kings 5 16 6 9.0
New York Rangers 3 6 20 9.7
Nashville Predators 9 18 5 10.7
Washington Capitals 7 14 13 11.3
Carolina Hurricanes 18 4 12 11.3
Boston Bruins 8 12 16 12.0
Vancouver Canucks 19 2 18 13.0
Detroit Red Wings 15 17 10 14.0
Ottawa Senators 13 11 22 15.3
Anaheim Ducks 20 15 14 16.3
New York Islanders 23 26 1 16.7
Dallas Stars 26 19 8 17.7
Colorado Avalanche 21 5 29 18.3
New Jersey Devils 14 21 24 19.7
Florida Panthers 17 24 19 20.0
Calgary Flames 16 20 26 20.7
San Jose Sharks 24 25 15 21.3
Philadelphia Flyers 22 27 21 23.3
Columbus Blue Jackets 25 23 27 25.0
Toronto Maple Leafs 27 22 28 25.7
Edmonton Oilers 30 28 23 27.0
Arizona Coyotes 28 29 25 27.3
Buffalo Sabres 29 30 30 29.7

For the first time in probably eight years the Pittsburgh Penguins are entering the playoffs where the only thing expected of them is for them to lose, and lose quickly given the way they redefined what it means for a team to back into the playoffs.

So when their name appears at the top of this list I can already picture your eyes rolling into the back of your head as you fall over. But their struggles over the past 15 games have really overshadowed the fact that for the first 67 games this was a really good hockey team, as good as any other team in the Eastern Conference. Right up until injuries and the salary cap decimated their defense to the point where they couldn't even dress a full lineup on some nights. They had to play four of their final seven games with only five defensemen.

That is going to hurt any team.

Fortunately they are going to get some relief when the playoffs begin in the form of callups from the AHL (Scott Harrington and Brian Dumoulin) and the possible returns of injured defensemen Christian Ehrhoff and Derrick Pouliot.

Unfortunately none of that is likely to offset the loss of their best defenseman, Kris Letang, and the fact their second-best defenseman, Paul Martin, was run into the ground over past month as he never seemed to be able to leave the ice.

That is going to be too much to overcome, especially in a brutal first-round matchup against the New York Rangers.

So let's focus on the next 10 teams, because there is a very good chance your 2015 Stanley Cup champion is going to come out of that group (only two of the past 16 Stanley Cup winners had an average finish in these three categories lower than 10th. Only one was lower than 12th. None were lower than 16th).

•The rest of the Western Conference and the NHL should thank their lucky stars the physical toll of 64 playoff games over the past three years and their inability to win an overtime game or a shootout kept the Los Angeles Kings out of the playoffs. Because they would have probably been right there in it at the end again.

• The other Stanley Cup finalist from a year ago -- the Rangers -- has taken a pretty big step backward when it comes to possession numbers, but the goaltending, whether it's regular starter Henrik Lundqvist or backup Cam Talbot, has been there to make up for it. They also still have four pretty dangerous lines that can score. Still not going to be an easy team to handle in a best-of-7 series.

• Perhaps as surprising as seeing Pittsburgh at the top is seeing Minnesota in the second spot. But it shouldn't be. This is a really good team that all season has been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, both in terms of preventing shots and killing penalties. The only thing that held them back in the first half of the season was the worst goaltending in the league, nearly costing a good coach his job and derailing what should have been a contender. After acquiring Devan Dubnyk from the Arizona Coyotes in mid-January, the team went 28-9-3. The biggest concern is whether Dubnyk played too much (39 consecutive starts before finally getting a game off) and will have enough left this season for a two-month playoff run. The other issue: A first-round matchup against another of the NHL's top contenders and best teams (St. Louis).

• If the Chicago Blackhawks get Patrick Kane back earlier than expected ... wow, look out.

• I am a little surprised to see Montreal this high because I hate the way they play, and once you get past Carey Price, Max Pacioretty and P.K. Subban there just isn't that much here that jumps off the page at you. But as we have seen this season with Minnesota, goaltending is a huge part of preventing goals. Bad goalies can sink an otherwise good defensive team. Great goalies do the opposite. Montreal has a great one.

• Winnipeg is the polar opposite of Montreal. A sneaky good team all year that could probably make some noise in the playoffs if not for one pretty significant question: Will the goaltending hold up? Ondrej Pavelec is playing great heading into the playoffs, but trusting Ondrej Pavelec has done nothing but cause trouble for the Jets/Atlanta Thrashers franchise over the past five years.

• Finally, we need to go a little further down the list.

Few people outside of Vancouver, Detroit and Ottawa are likely to have any expectations for those teams to win the Stanley Cup this season.

The Anaheim Ducks and New York Islanders, on the other hand, might have some higher expectations. But do they have what it takes to win? The Ducks always win a ton of regular-season games, but they never really seem all that impressive while they're doing it and then they go out in the first or second round of the playoffs and come back and do it all over again the next season. Given their struggles to keep the puck out of their net this season, it might happen again.

And then there are the Islanders. Exciting team offensively. Great group of forwards when healthy. A really good top defensive pairing with Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk. The best possession team in the NHL, usually a great sign for postseason success.

But on the rare occasion that they do give up a shot it tends to end up in the back of their net. This is a problem, and it has become an increasingly larger one down the stretch where protecting leads (and winning games) has been a constant struggle.

It's probably not going to get any easier in the first round against the Capitals, with Alex Ovechkin and the best, most dominant power play unit in the NHL. Want to win that series? Better stay out of the penalty box.