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• CFP: Who's in & Who's out
  
• AFC & NFC Playoff Pictures: Race to X Wins
  
• Projected College Football Playoff (ahead of conference championships)
  
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[Dec 3, 2025 at 6:22 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

BEARS VS PACKERS

• Both teams' playoff chances are above 75% even if they lose so this game is all about the NFC North chances
• Chicago goes from 41% to 70% with a win but down to 27% with a loss
• Green Bay goes from 53% to 67% with a win but 22% with a loss
• Model likes Green Bay with a 68% chance to win with a projected score of 28 to 20
• Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS on the road despite a pretty bad point differential (-4.1) and they allow
• Bears pass defense allows way more Yards per pass attempt on the road (8.1) than at home (6.9)
• Bears allow +8.5 more pts on the road (29.1) than at home
• Green Bay's passing game was struggling without TE Tucker Kraft but had a solid 234 yards beating Detroit
• WR Dontayvion Wicks missed some time but with his 6 rec, 94 yard, 2 TD game he's providing Jordan Love and GB that 3rd receiving option
• Jordan Love Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-114 BetRivers) is a good bet
• Projected for 243
• Buy low value on his initial struggles w/o Tucker Kraft (3 straight sub 180 yard games) but broke out of it last week and was 5-2 prior to Kraft's injury

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE

• Both fanbases are in the dumps after their last outings at home, and both were booed off their home fields
• Ravens are 62% sim favorites (BAL 24, PIT 20) but that could go to 70% if T.J. Watt is out or seriously limited
• Both team's playoff chances are basically their Division Chances and neither really has a legit shot at a Wildcard
• Baltimore's Division chances go from 53% to 71% with a win, just 24.5% with a loss
• Pittsburgh division chances go from 39% to 70% with a win and 21% with a loss
• Baltimore should be able to win this by running it 90% of the time
• Buffalo ran the same play over and over (T.J. Watt's words) and had 249 rushing yards on 4.9 ypc
• Steelers LB Patrick Queen has been a mega disappointment as a big money FA last season and he may be out or at least not nearly 100%
• Baltimore trucked the Steelers with 220 yards on 5.8 ypc last December and then again with 299 yards on 6 ypc a few weeks later in the playoffs
• Pittsburgh 100% knew what Baltimore and Buffalo were going to do and they got steamrolled… sounds like a major strength (good running games) vs a major weakness (Steelers run defense)
• Odds aren't posted but waiting to take Keaton Mitchell's over in rushing yards if it's anything under 30 rushing yards

INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE

• The Colts' playoff chances could get dangerously close to 50% with a loss because they are the one team that doesn't have the head-to-head vs the Chiefs
• Indianapolis' goes from 74% to make the playoffs to 89% with a win but just 59% with a loss
• Jacksonville has an 80% playoff% and that goes to 94% with a win and 68% with a loss
• Both team's division chances are nearly identical at around 37% each, both go to right around 58% with a win and both drop to 15 to 16% with a loss
• Indianapolis is the slight 52% sim favorite because Jonathan Taylor is projected for a 100 yards game on 4.9 ypc
• But the splits are not with the Colts' running game as they average just 94 rushing yards (4.3 ypc) on the road vs a whopping 163 on 5.5 at home
• The Jags run defense is awesome, statistically, allowing just 82 yards on 3.9 ypc which is an amazing improvement on the 133 (4.4 ypc) they allowed last season
• Jonathan Taylor has been held in check for 3 of his last 4 games (85, 58, and 45 with one explosive 244) and if not for the 244 yard game vs Atlanta he'd probably be projected for under 90 yards on 4.5 ypc and the Jaguars would be favored
• If Taylor does not have a big game and the Colts lose he has no shot at the MVP

HOUSTON AT KANSAS CITY

• Chiefs could be virtually eliminated from the playoffs with a loss going from 37% to 9% but a win keeps them above water at 54%
• Houston is on a roll and would get a massive bump from 59% to 85% with a win because this is one of their hardest games on the schedule and they, like every other AFC Wildcard contender, would earn the head to head vs the Chiefs
• If Houston loses they'd still be a decent 44% to make the playoffs
• The Chiefs are 61% sim favorites because they are projected to hold Houston under their 19.5 team total (both odds and model have 23 for KC)
• The Chiefs home vs road defensive splits are striking with KC allowing just 14 per game at home (24.7 on road), 20 fewer rushing yards per game at home, 102 fewer passing yards per game, and 2.2 fewer yards per pass attempt
• The Texans are worse offensively on the road scoring 4 fewer points, averaging 13 fewer rushing yards and committing more than twice as many turnovers

[Dec 4, 2025 at 5:46 pm ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Inside the Lines immediately spotted value in the Colts the moment they signed Daniel Jones, projecting their playoff chances at 41.4%. They smashed early expectations with a 7–1 start that pushed their playoff odds to 98.2%. But after dropping 3 of their last 4, Indy has slid back to 73.7%. Here's a look at the Colts' week-to-week playoff odds — and how a Week 14 loss would impact their postseason chances.

[Dec 2, 2025 at 11:52 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

AFC Race to 10 Wins

In a jam-packed AFC, our model projects 10 wins as the key number to lock down a Wild Card spot. Below is each bubble team's percentage chance to reach the playoffs with 10 wins — and what happens if they fall short.

NFC Race to 11 Wins

In the NFC, we project 11 wins to be necessary for a Wild Card Spot. Notable teams that we give less than a 50% chance to reach that mark but could still make the playoffs by winning their division include: Buccaneers, Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers.