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Welcome to the Inside the Lines Model

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Smarter game analysis, predictive playoff brackets, insightful power rankings, and more - all updated daily and always free.

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NFL Playoff Chances -- Who's in? Who's out?

Here's a look at current playoff odds for every NFL team — and how those odds would change with a win or loss this week. Ten teams have been eliminated, several others are nearly out, and seven teams sit above a 90% chance to make the playoffs.

TEAMCURRENTAFTER WINAFTER LOSS




Arizona CardinalsELIMINATED

Atlanta FalconsELIMINATED

Baltimore Ravens23.6%37.0%9.7%
Buffalo Bills95.1%98.9%89.6%
Carolina Panthers39.6%56.5%23.6%
Chicago Bears69.8%75.1%55.3%
Cincinnati Bengals2.9%6.0%0.0%
Cleveland BrownsELIMINATED

Dallas Cowboys11.9%15.7%2.7%
Denver Broncos99.9%100.0%99.9%
Detroit Lions52.5%71.4%37.4%
Green Bay Packers93.5%98.4%89.2%
Houston Texans87.0%90.1%75.2%
Indianapolis Colts39.7%64.7%32.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars97.0%98.7%87.3%
Kansas City Chiefs6.3%9.0%0.0%
Las Vegas RaidersELIMINATED

Los Angeles Chargers74.5%89.6%66.6%
Los Angeles Rams94.7%100.0%88.8%
Miami Dolphins0.1%0.3%0.0%
Minnesota VikingsELIMINATED

New England Patriots99.9%100.0%99.8%
New Orleans SaintsELIMINATED

New York GiantsELIMINATED

New York JetsELIMINATED

Philadelphia Eagles90.3%94.0%76.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers73.8%79.6%62.9%
San Francisco 49ers89.1%92.8%74.4%
Seattle Seahawks98.2%99.1%97.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers60.4%80.9%25.8%
Tennessee TitansELIMINATED

Washington CommandersELIMINATED

 
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Super Bowl Matchup Predictions

Using our model simulations, we can project the percent chance of every possible Super Bowl matchup. Seattle and New England emerge as the most likely conference champions, and in a projected Seahawks–Patriots Super Bowl, our model gives Seattle a 59.9% chance to win. A few teams that just missed the cut but still maintain relatively strong chances include Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Houston.

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NFL Power Rankings

Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on Neutral Win% — a simulation that assumes every team plays every other team on a neutral field, fully healthy, in February.

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Projections for all four CFP First Round games

Inside the Lines' model has all four home teams advancing, including Oklahoma despite being a 1.5-point underdog. The simulations also project 12-seed JMU to cover as a +21.5 underdog, while Texas A&M (-3.5) and Ole Miss (-16.5) are both expected to cover as home favorites.

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Projected College Football Playoff

With the CFP bracket officially set, Inside the Lines has run full simulations across every game and every round to project this year's National Champion. Our model gives Georgia, the No. 3 seed, the most favorable path to the title. In the final, we project the Bulldogs as 5-point favorites over Indiana.

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Colts Playoff Chances (throughout the season)

Inside the Lines immediately spotted value in the Colts the moment they signed Daniel Jones, projecting their playoff chances at 41.4%. They smashed early expectations with a 7–1 start that pushed their playoff odds to 98.2%. But after dropping 4 of their last 5, Indy has slid back to 58.6%. Here's a look at the Colts' week-to-week playoff odds — and how the Week 14 loss impacted their postseason chances.

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AFC & NFC Playoff Pictures: Race to X Wins

AFC Race to 10 Wins

In a jam-packed AFC, our model projects 10 wins as the key number to lock down a Wild Card spot. Below is each bubble team's percentage chance to reach the playoffs with 10 wins — and what happens if they fall short.

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NFC Race to 11 Wins

In the NFC, we project 11 wins to be necessary for a Wild Card Spot. Notable teams that we give less than a 50% chance to reach that mark but could still make the playoffs by winning their division include: Buccaneers, Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers.

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