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The 2021 NCAA Tournament is back in action on Saturday with 16 first-round games. One of the earlier games of the day features a matchup between the eighth-seeded LSU Tigers and the ninth-seeded St. Bonaventure Bonnies. LSU enters with an 18-9 record, and this marks the Tigers' 23rd NCAA Tournament appearance, but just their third since 2010. St. Bonaventure ended the season with a 16-4 record after taking the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament title for the second time in school history. This will mark the eighth NCAA Tournament appearance for the Bonnies, who recorded the program's best single-season winning percentage since the 1969-70 season.

Tip-off is at 1:45 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Tigers as two-point favorites in the latest LSU vs. St. Bonaventure odds, while the over-under, or the total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 144. Before making any St. Bonaventure vs. LSU picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned almost $500 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on LSU vs. St. Bonaventure in the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for St. Bonaventure vs. LSU:

  • LSU vs. St. Bonaventure spread: LSU -2
  • LSU vs. St. Bonaventure over-under: 144 points
  • LSU vs. St. Bonaventure money line: LSU -130, St. Bonaventure +110
  • LSU: The Tigers are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • SBU: The Bonnies are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why LSU can cover 

While St. Bonaventure boasts one of the best statistical defenses of any team in the tournament, it is important to remember that data wasn't gathered against teams with anywhere near the offensive firepower that this LSU squad brings. St. Bonaventure didn't play a ranked opponent all season, so there's no telling how its vaunted defense will stand up against an LSU offense that averaged 82.1 points per game, which ranked eighth in Division-1 scoring.

LSU's offense can attack an opposing defense in a variety of ways, as four different players averaged double figures for the Tigers this season. Star freshman Cameron Thomas led the way with 22.6 points per game, which was the highest mark in the nation among freshman players. He was remarkably consistent for a freshman too, putting up 20-plus points on 20 separate occasions (tied for most in Division-1). When Thomas is on his game, there's only so much a defense can do to stop him.

Why St. Bonaventure can cover

While LSU's high-powered offense and NBA Draft prospects are going to garner more public attention, St. Bonaventure's stifling defense and fundamental style of play has allowed the Bonnies to exceed expectations all season long. The Bonnies covered the spread in 74 percent of their games in 2021, which is tied for the fourth-best mark among teams in the NCAA Tournament. St. Bonaventure seems to be perpetually underrated by oddsmakers, so it should come as no surprise that the Bonnies are listed as the underdog for a matchup in which some metrics point toward them being the superior team.

The Bonnies enter the tournament red-hot with a straight-up and against-the-spread record of 6-1 over the past month. St. Bonaventure typically likes to slow the pace of the game and win with its defense, but the Bonnies certainly have the ability to keep up in a high-paced game. Their offense put up 70-plus points in all three conference tournament games, and the Bonnies are 14-0 this season in games in which they scored 65 or more points. 

How to make St. Bonaventure vs. LSU picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 149 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins St. Bonaventure vs. LSU? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.