Football coaches will tell you that the losses tend to stick with you longer than the wins, and I can certainly relate to that sentiment this week. I went 5-1 in this column last week, but instead of focusing on the five wins, I'm stuck on that one loss. That loss sucked.

I took the under in last week's Miami (Ohio)-Bowling Green game at 55. Miami had a 31-17 lead in the final minutes and found itself in a position where it could just run out the clock, the game would end and the RedHawks would win. Instead, the RedHawks played the game out and scored a touchdown with 34 seconds left to make it 38-17. I was suddenly sitting on a push. It was a kick to the gut, but it would only get worse. The Falcons got the ball back after the Miami score and found themselves at midfield with time left for one more play. Backup Bowling Green quarterback Grant Loy launched a prayer into the air, and it found the arms of Justin Sawmiller in the end zone for a meaningless touchdown as the game ended.

Well, meaningless to the result. It was meaningful to anybody who had bet the total. In the span of a minute, I saw a winner become a push, and then a loss.

Stanford's miracle cover against Oregon later that night felt like a bit of retribution, but it didn't erase the sting entirely. My 6-0 week was robbed from me, and I'm going to do everything in my power to get it this week.

Games of the Week

No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 9 Penn State: The Nittany Lions began the season ranked as a top-10 team, and they remain one because they haven't lost to this point. The truth though, is that I don't know if they've genuinely played like a top 10 team. Particularly on the defensive side of the ball. While Penn State held Kent State to 41 yards rushing on 37 carries, Appalachian State, Pitt, and Illinois rushed for 649 yards on 119 carries. That's 5.45 yards per carry, which would rank 114th nationally right now.

None of those three offenses have been as good as Ohio State's. Penn State will score points on Ohio State. Its offense is too good, and the absence of Nick Bosa will only help the Penn State offense, but I can't trust the defense in a game of this magnitude just yet. Plus, Ohio State has done really well as a road favorite. Since the 2008 season, the Buckeyes have been road favorites 38 times, and they've gone 22-15-1 ATS in that span. Against ranked teams like Penn State, they're 5-2-1 ATS. I trust Ohio State more right now. Ohio State 35, Penn State 28

No. 7 Stanford at No. 8 Notre Dame (Under 54): Notre Dame's offense had been mostly non-existent this season before last week against Wake Forest. Suddenly, Ian Book takes over at QB, and Notre Dame puts up 56 points against Wake Forest. So is Notre Dame's offense cured? I'm not ready to buy that just yet because Wake has allowed an average of 33.5 points per game this season. In my mind, the Irish took advantage of a lousy defense. One that saw its defensive coordinator fired after the game.

Notre Dame's defense has been quite good, however, particularly in the passing game which ranks 18th in the country with a defensive pass efficiency of 100.45. Stanford running back Bryce Love gets all the Heisman Trophy attention, but truthfully, Stanford's been a better passing team than it has been a rushing team to this point. Stanford -- with Love -- is averaging 3.66 yards per carry this season. That ranks 102nd in the country. All of this leads me to believe we're going to see a defensive slugfest in South Bend on Saturday night, and I love the value on the under here. Notre Dame 24, Stanford 21

Lock of the Week

TCU (-10.5) vs. Iowa State: I always like to look for a spot where I can bet against recency bias, and I believe this is a spot I can take advantage of. TCU has lost two in a row. Once against one of the best teams in the country against in Ohio State, and last week against Texas. TCU didn't deserve to win last week, but it would have had a much better shot if it hadn't turned the ball over four times.

Iowa State, meanwhile, has looked to be an average team this season. I haven't seen anything from the Cyclones this year to make me think they'll go on the road against TCU and cover this spread. Particularly when you factor in TCU having the motivation of ending its losing streak, as well as the revenge factor after losing to Iowa State last season. TCU 34, Iowa State 17

Under of the Week

Indiana at Rutgers (Under 51.5): Sometimes, you want to rely on two average-to-horrible offenses to continue being average to awful offenses, and that's what I'm doing here. Indiana comes into this game ranked 66th in the county with 0.380 points per play. Rutgers ranks 114th at 0.231 points per play, and even that number is misleading because the Knights scored 35 points against Texas State, but have managed only 30 points the last three weeks. That includes games against Kansas and Buffalo. So, I'm relying on Indiana's offense to continue being average, and for Rutgers' to continue being awful. In my mind, the only thing to be wary of here is a defensive touchdown or two. Indiana 31, Rutgers 13

Big Road Favorite of the Week

Oklahoma State (-17) at Kansas: Kansas is 2-2 on the season, which is fantastic for Kansas, but I believe it's also misleading. The Jayhawks beat both Rutgers and Central Michigan, two teams who are a combined 2-6 with wins over Texas State and Maine. They aren't good. Kansas also lost to Nicholls to open the season, and last week it lost by 19 to a Baylor team that lost by two scores to a Duke team without its starting QB the week before. What I'm saying is, I don't think Kansas is very good. And with Oklahoma State coming off an unexpected loss to Texas Tech, I think the Cowboys are being underestimated with this line. I would have Oklahoma State as a three-touchdown favorite. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas 20

Overcorrection of the Week

South Carolina (+1.5) at No. 17 Kentucky: Kentucky is one of the season's biggest surprises to this point. The Wildcats have beaten both Florida and Mississippi State and find themselves at No. 17 in the AP Top 25 poll. Well, this line initially opened at most books with South Carolina as a 1-point favorite, and it moved quickly after the rankings came out and Kentucky had that shiny number next to its name. I happen to think the original line was a better reflection of this game than the current one. I think South Carolina will focus on slowing down Benny Snell and forcing Kentucky to find another avenue on offense, and frankly, I'm just not sure it has one. It's been a great story to this point, but I expect it to end on Saturday. South Carolina 27, Kentucky 24

SportsLine Bonus Pick of the Week

No. 18 Texas at Kansas State: Texas is back in the rankings and heads to Manhattan to take on Kansas State. The Longhorns are favored by 8.5 points, and the total is set at 48. To see my pick for this game head on over to SportsLine.


Last Week2018 Season

Game(s) of the Week

2-0

5-4

Lock of the Week

1-0

3-1

Overall

5-1

14-10