Dylan Carlson was one of the biggest risers in prospects circles this offseason after a huge breakout that saw the former first-rounder reach (and thrive at) Triple-A as a 20-year-old. The profile is especially promising for Fantasy players, as is the timeline — he could have an Opening Day job for the Cardinals.

Numbers to Know

  • Date of Birth: 10/23/1998
  • Height: 6'3"
  • Weight: 205 lb
  • Prospect Ranks: No. 10 at Baseball America, No. 17 at MLB Pipeline, No. 18 at Baseball Prospectus
  • Scott White's Rank: No. 8 Fantasy prospect
  • 2019: (AA, AAA) 126 G, .292/.372/.542, 26 HR, 62 XBH, 20 SB (71.4%), 10.3 BB%, 20.6 K%
  • Career: 403 G, .260/.350/.431, 47 HR, 143 XBH, 38 SB (66.6%), 10.9 BB%, 21.7 K%

Known Injury History

N/A

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Strengths

It took a few years to get going, but Carlson blossomed in 2019, despite being young for both Double-A and Triple-A. He nearly went 20-20 in just 108 games in the Texas League, hitting .281/.364/.518 in a tough hitting environment, despite being one of the youngest players at the level. He is a switch hitter with a good swing from both sides, and he was equally productive against both lefties and righties in 2019, with good plate discipline to boot. The combination of power and athleticism should have Fantasy players drooling.

Concerns

There are more varied opinions about Carlson in the prospects community than you usually find for a player ranked this high, and it's reflected in both his rankings as well as his stat line. Carlson was a pretty fringe-y prospect before 2019, and the tools may not be as loud as the 2019 statline would indicate. He's been a pretty inefficient base runner in his career, and there is concern that he'll fill out too much to maintain the foot speed, so the apparent speed may not actually play in the majors. That puts a lot more pressure on the bat to play, and it makes for an awfully risky bit given the uneven track record of performance. The upside looks super high, but if he's more like a .270 hitter with 20 homers, you may regret investing too much in him.

Outside Take

"Carlson is an average runner and a large dude for a 20-year-old. His instincts in center field are okay, but not good enough to overcome long speed that typically falls short at the position. Because of where we have his arm strength graded, we think he fits in left field or at first base. The TrackMan data we sourced also indicates that his 2019 line is a bit of a caricature. His average exit velo (about 88 mph) and rate of balls in play at 95 mph or higher (about 34%) are both right around the big league average, rather than exceptional. The in-office types we talk to about this kind of thing are in love with Carlson because he's only 20, and they anticipate these things will improve, but visual evaluation of his build don't suggest as much physical projection as is typical of someone this young, because he's already a big guy." —Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs.com

Fantasy Comparison

Scott White and I were asked about a comparison for Carlson for 2020 only on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast recently, and we came up with Yasiel Puig's 2019 — .267-76-24-84-19. That wouldn't be a bad outcome for a rookie year, though you're certainly hoping for more. Unfortunately, Carlson is no sure thing, and concerns about how his speed will play long term make me want to downgrade those expectations, too. Something like Marcell Ozuna makes sense, actually — .272 career average, 26 homers, 94 RBI, 81 R per-162 games for his career. You'd hope Carlson would run more than Ozuna, so maybe more seasons with Ozuna's 2019 steal total would be in the cards. 

Fantasy Bottom Line

It's not hard to see how Carlson could become a Fantasy star, but it looks like a lower-probability outcome to me than his lofty ranking would indicate. If everything goes right, Carlson is a perennial early-round pick, hitting 20-plus homers and swiping 15-plus bases every season. Scott, obviously, is quite a bit higher on him, so that seems to highlight the high variance in Carlson's profile. He's a younger prospect, so don't bet against him.

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