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USATSI

Happy New Year everybody! I've never been big on New Year's resolutions, mostly because I believe you can make changes that better yourself at any point throughout the year, not just in January. But I will admit they are fun, especially when applying them to MLB players for Fantasy Baseball purposes. In case you were wondering, Merriam-Webster defines a New Year's resolution as "a promise to do something differently in the new year."

As Fantasy Baseball managers, we think we know how to perfect every player. This guy needs to raise his launch angle while another needs to strike out less. It's not always as simple as that, but we do have enough data and experience at this point to back up these claims. So instead of telling you my New Year's resolutions, I looked at five different players (or teams) and created resolutions for them, starting with Keston Hiura.

Make more contact, Keston Hiura

Hiura took the league by storm in 2019, batting .303 with 19 home runs with a .938 OPS across 84 games. While the power remained in 2020, everything else came crashing to earth, including his ability to make contact. Hiura led the National League in strikeouts this past season with 85, mostly due to a 20.3% swinging strike rate, which ranked second among qualified hitters. His swing-and-miss was a big reason why his batting average dropped from .303 in 2019 to .212 in 2020.

I still have faith in Hiura's long-term ability to right the ship, however. If you take a look at his minor-league career, he never struck out more than 26.3% of the time at any level. In fact, across 965 minor-league plate appearances, he struck out just 21% of the time.

This actually reminds me of another big-name prospect who has already shown massive improvement in this same area: Austin Riley. We all know what happened with the Riley. He hit 14 home runs the first two months he was up in 2019 and then couldn't hit the side of a barn. Riley went on to strike out 36.4% of the time as a rookie in 2019. In the shortened season, Riley was much more confident, lowered his swinging strike rate 6% and dropped his strikeout rate all the way down to 23.8%.

As much as I like Riley, I do believe Hiura is a better prospect. If Riley can make the necessary adjustments, I'd be willing to bet on Hiura as well.

Let your players run more, White Sox

Stolen bases are easily the scarcest category in Fantasy Baseball. While we have plate discipline and batted ball data to help identify hitters who can contribute batting and power stats, it isn't that easy for steals. What we do know about steals is that they are largely tied to motivation and coaching tendencies. Take a look at the San Diego Padres, for example. Under Andy Green in 2019, the Padres finished 15th in steals as a team. Under Jayce Tingler in 2020, however, they finished first in that category. The narrative can flip that quickly.

There is hope. Under Rick Renteria from 2017-2020, the White Sox finished 20th or lower in steals in three of the four seasons. Tony La Russa is now the manager of the White Sox and, while his Cardinals teams didn't run much in the early 2000s, Rickey Henderson and the A's did back in the 90s. The White Sox don't have Henderson but they do have six players with a sprint speed in the 68th percentile or better, including three in the 90th percentile or better. All we're asking for is to let Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada free!

Hit the ball harder, Victor Robles

After a very solid 2019 campaign that saw Victor Robles hit 17 home runs with 28 steals, he took a huge step back in 2020. Robles struck out a career-high 28% of the time on his way to a .220 batting average with just three homers and four steals. Some blamed his added "muscle" for the struggles, and perhaps that contributed, but it's not the main reason (it definitely wasn't muscle). Robles just needs to cut down on the strikeouts and make hard contact more consistently.

I'm not saying Robles needs to become his teammate Juan Soto, but since the start of 2019, Robles' 24.1% hard-contact rate is second lowest among all qualified hitters. His average exit velocity went from 83.3 MPH in 2019 to 82.2 MPH in 2020 (league average is 88.3 MPH). I believe Robles is capable of more. His max exit velocity in 2020 was 109.2. While that ranked 151st in baseball, it was the same number as Bo Bichette and better than Anthony Rendon, Trevor Story, and Nolan Arenado. Again, we don't need Robles to become some power hitter. He just needs to make harder contact more consistently. If he does, we should see him bounce back over a .250 batting average, which will give him more opportunities to run.

Have better luck, Nick Castellanos

Alright, this one is a bit tongue-in-cheek. Obviously, this one isn't on Castellanos. If you look into the batted ball data, Castellanos was awesome. According to Statcast, Castellanos ranked in the 82nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, expected slugging, and barrel rate. Among the 23 qualified hitters with a 25% line drive rate or better, Castellanos' .257 BABIP was the lowest.

How Castellanos can control his luck is by making contact more frequently. From 2013-19 with the Detroit Tigers, Castellanos struck out 23% of the time. In 2020, however, he uncharacteristically struck out a career-high 28.5% of the time. And while he hit many line drives and made a ton of hard contact, it seems like he was consciously trying to pull the ball less, opting to go up the middle and to the opposite field more. While that change has helped the likes of Tim Anderson and Dansby Swanson, it didn't seem to work as well for Castellanos. During his Tigers tenure, Castellanos pulled the ball 39.8% of the time, which helped him to a .333 BABIP. He pulled the ball just 32% of the time in 2020 and had a .257 BABIP. Maybe it was just bad luck or maybe something is there. Just be yourself, Castellanos!

Hit fewer ground balls, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

You've heard it once, you've heard it a million times. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is awesome and absolutely pummels the ball. The problem is he hits too many balls into the dirt, which has severely limited his power output to this point in his career. Through his first 183 games, Guerrero Jr. has just 24 home runs and a .778 OPS. It's not bad but certainly not what we were expecting when he made his debut in 2019. A large reason he's underwhelmed is his career 51.3% ground ball rate. Just imagine what he could do if we saw this uppercut more often!

I believe there is hope. While it was a short season, Guerrero Jr. lowered his ground ball rate each month, getting it down to 50.6% in September. Honestly, I think if he just gets that number down to 45% in 2021, we could see a massive season. Just look at how hard he hits the ball. His 92.5 MPH average exit velocity and 50.8% hard contact rate both ranked in the 93rd percentile in all of baseball. His max exit velocity, which correlates with power, was 116.1 in 2020! That means he had the fifth hardest hit ball of the entire season.

It's a big price tag with the ADP at 55.8, but I'm willing to chase that dragon. It seems like the Steamer projections on Fangraphs is willing to do the same, projecting Guerrero Jr. to bat .301 with 29 homers an 98 RBI. Here's to hoping Guerrero Jr. reads this!