2021 British Open predictions, picks, favorites: One of these nine will win at Royal St. George's
The race for the Claret Jug will likely come down to one of two favorites
By
Kyle Porter
•
4 min read
It's almost time for the 149th Open Championship, which means it's almost time to crown another major champion -- the last of 2021. This event has seen some great ones in the last decade with Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson and Jordan Spieth among those who have brought home the Claret Jug.
Who will join that list? Recent history says we get a more experienced champion here than at the three other majors. In the last decade, only Spieth and McIlroy have won this tournament at an age younger than 30.
There are plenty of contenders in their 20s who could join them, but I skewed my pool of candidates slightly older this time around. Here's the usual list of suspects with maybe a few surprises tossed in as we try and figure out who's going to win the last major of 2021.
| 1 | |
| Just like with the U.S. Open, the only viable reason to not pick Rahm is because everyone else is picking Rahm. His game is complete and has been for years, and the only thing that has changed from a month ago is that he's cut ties with the nagging thread in his head that reminded him he was supposed to win a bunch of major championships. I'm not going to pretend like that was a massive weight lifted off his shoulders because it was not, but his clarity has gone from 98% to 100% and I am officially terrified. Odds: 7-1 | |
| 2 | |
| Maybe I'm the sucker, but it's difficult for me to see anyone outside these top two winning this week's event. Spieth has actually been better over the first half of the year than he was back in 2017 when he was the best iron player in the world and ended up winning at Royal Birkdale. I'm not sure he has the same level of confidence these days, but if he holes just a handful of putts on Thursday and Friday, we're going to the moon. Odds: 18-1 | |
| 3 | |
| If the replies to my tweet about how Oosty is 12 strokes from seven majors are any indication, there are a lot of King Louis haters out there. I guess I understand folks being frustrated about somebody they believe is not a closer, but there's a big difference between getting near the lead and fading to T7 or T11 and finishing tied or within one stroke of the winner, which Oosthuizen has done four times (!) at major championships. Odds: 30-1 | |
| 4 | |
| He's already told us he'll be near the final pairing on Sunday, and that has historically been pretty spot-on. Again, Koepka has finished in the top 15 over 17 of his last 21 majors, and in one of the others he was in one of the last pairings at the PGA Championship at Harding Park in 2020 before fading to a T29 finish. Because picking the exact winner of any single major is nearly impossible, choosing the pool of players with a real shot late in the day on Sunday is the actual goal. Koepka will be one of them. Odds: 16-1 | |
| 5 | |
| As much as I want to move away from him because I don't love how he's handled leads in the past, his record at majors makes him impossible to ignore. Nine top-10 finishes in 17 major starts, including a T2 at this tournament in 2018 when he was in the final pairing with Spieth at Carnoustie. Prime position for him would be T8 going into Sunday and a 65 to close. Odds: 16-1 | |
| 6 | |
| Like with most major championships, Reed comes in a bit under the radar. He contends, though, with top 20s in each of his last seven appearances at majors dating back to the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush. And again, all we're going for here is somebody who gets into contention late on Sunday. He's nails tough, which is a quality you can fill the Claret Jug with, and he might be doing just that on Sunday evening. Odds: 33-1 | |
| 7 | |
| It feels like we're sleeping on him a bit, which is maybe fair because he has not been great at majors over the last few years. However, he has been really good specifically at Open Championships before and he comes in with some form after top 20s in two of his last three events. Odds: 28-1 | |
| 8 | |
| He's so creative and such a great iron player that I refuse to leave him off this list. His game has actually been really solid statistically since he won the Players Championship in March, even if it doesn't really feel like it. He brings top 20s at both the U.S. Open and Scottish Open into this week at Royal St. George's, and there had been some real improvement in his putting over the few months before that. | |
| 9 | |
| Maybe I'm the fool here, but Rory's record at Opens is a joke. After winning in 2014, he finished T5, T4 and T2 before missing the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019. After poor performances at both the Masters and PGA Championship, he got into real contention at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. It has not gone great since then, and I'm not in love with his current form (particularly with the driver), but I have more confidence in him working his way into contention than I do most of the other guys in this field. Odds: 16-1 | |
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