2022 PGA Championship odds: Surprising PGA picks, weekend predictions from model that's nailed eight majors

SportsLine's proven model ran 10,000 simulations of the final two rounds of the PGA Championship 2022

The first two rounds of the 2022 PGA Championship are officially in the books. It's an extremely crowded leaderboard as the third round is set to get underway from Southern Hills Country Club on Saturday morning. Will Zalatoris currently sits atop the 2022 PGA Championship leaderboard at 9-under par, while Mito Pereira sits just one shot off the lead. Justin Thomas enters the weekend in third place, three shots behind Zalatoris. Meanwhile, major champions like Bubba Watson (-5) and Rory McIlroy (-4) are still within striking distance. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Zalatoris at 5-2 in the updated 2022 PGA Championship odds, with Thomas (7-2), Pereira (11-2) and McIlroy (13-2) next in line. Tiger Woods is T-53 at 3-over after shooting a 69 on Friday, and he's now listed at 500-1 to win the Wanamaker Trophy. With so many experienced players atop the leaderboard, you'll want to check out the PGA Tour predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine before locking in your 2022 PGA Championship picks.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up almost $9,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend. In addition, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the cut has been made at the 2022 PGA Championship, SportsLine simulated the final two rounds 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2022 PGA Championship predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2022: Pereira, who is just one shot off the lead, stumbles big time and doesn't even crack the top three. The 27-year-old fired a 64 on Friday, the second-best round of the day. However, history indicates Pereira won't finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2022 PGA Championship. 

Southern Hills has hosted a major championship seven times in its history, and all seven champions have held the 36-hole lead/co-lead. in addition, Pereira entered this week's event ranked 160th in overall putting average (1.619) and 167th in one-putt percentage (38.25), which doesn't bode well for his chances this weekend. McClure's model has identified several other golfers with better value in the PGA Championship odds, making Pereira somebody to avoid.

Another surprise: Cameron Young, a 45-1 long shot, makes a surprising run into contention. He has a better chance to win than his odds imply, making him a great PGA Championship weekend sleeper pick. The 25-year old American has a lot of ground to cover as he enters the weekend 2-under par and tied for 10th. 

But a stumble by Zalatoris would open up the field significantly for some golfers with longer odds. Young has four top-10 finishes this season, which includes finishing T-3 or better in each of his last two starts. He's been one of the PGA Tour's longest players off the tee this season, averaging 315.7 yards per drive. That can help him pick up strokes quickly, so confidently back him in your 2022 PGA Championship bets for the weekend.

How to make 2022 PGA Championship picks

The model is targeting two golfers with odds of 50-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. It also has a surprising prediction for where Tiger Woods finishes. You can only see the model's picks here.

So who will win the PGA Championship 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2022 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including this year's Masters.

2022 PGA Championship weekend odds, field

Will Zalatoris +250
Justin Thomas +350
Mito Pereira +550
Rory McIlroy +650
Bubba Watson +1800
Cameron Smith +2000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2200
Abraham Ancer +2200
Sam Burns +3500
Davis Riley +3500
Cameron Young +4500
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Gary Woodland +6500
Viktor Hovland +6500
Max Homa +8000
Stewart Cink +8000
Joaquin Niemann +8000
Jordan Spieth +8000
Matt Kuchar +8000
Chris Kirk +10000
Xander Schauffele +12500
Patrick Reed +12500
Talor Gooch +12500
Jon Rahm +15000
Brooks Koepka +20000
Seamus Power +20000
Bernd Wiesberger +20000
Ryan Fox +20000
Shane Lowry +25000
Tony Finau +25000
Brendan Steele +30000
Kevin Na +30000
Tommy Fleetwood +30000
Tom Hoge +30000
Justin Rose +40000
Cameron Tringale +40000
Aaron Wise +40000
Adri Arnaus +40000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +50000
Laurie Canter +50000
Lanto Griffin +50000
Si-Woo Kim +50000
Keegan Bradley +50000
Jason Day +50000
Thomas Pieters +50000
Rickie Fowler +50000
Beau Hossler +50000
Jason Kokrak +50000
Francesco Molinari +50000
Robert Macintyre +50000
Lucas Herbert +50000
Collin Morikawa +50000
Tiger Woods +50000
Harold Varner +75000
Hideki Matsuyama +75000
Marc Leishman +100000
Denny McCarthy +100000
Russell Henley +100000
Kramer Hickok +100000