It's Thanksgiving weekend which means it's time to sit around and pretend to pay attention to your family while you're really just interested in sweating the football bets you've made. Your family will think you're strange for paying so much attention to that 28-point football game in the fourth quarter so intently.

"Why are you watching this game? It's over!"

You'll grunt to let them know you hear them, but they don't realize this game isn't over at all. In fact, it's still under, and you need another field goal for it to go over, so you'd just like to sit there eating your turkey and waiting for more points to be scored.

Don't worry, I'm not your family. I'm not going to distract you any longer. Let's get to it.

Falcons (+13) at Saints (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

I might be an idiot. There's plenty of evidence that supports the theory. I took the Eagles to cover against the Saints last week, and that never had a prayer of happening. Now I'm here again telling you to take a team to cover against a Saints team that is 8-2 ATS this season. But you know what? They're only 3-2 ATS at home, and I'm a firm believer in regression to the mean, and I'm counting on some of that here.

Plus I have a difficult time laying double-digits with a team in a division game. The underdog covers in these situations more often than not, and the underdog has done well in this rivalry, covering eight times in the last 10 meetings. The Falcons will make it nine times in 11 on Thursday night (NBC, stream on fuboTV, try for free). Saints 34, Falcons 24

Result: Saints 31, Falcons 17

Jaguars (-3) at Bills

We don't know who is going to be starting at quarterback for the Bills, but whether it's Matt Barkley, Josh Allen, or whatever QB the Bills bring in off the street this week, I don't care. I'm riding with the Jaguars. The Jags blew it last week against the Steelers when they went too conservative in the second half, and that's always a concern with this team and Doug Marrone, but the difference is the Steelers have an offense that can make you pay for playing conservatively. The Bills don't.

Sure, Buffalo put up 41 against the Jets in Week 10, but that's an outlier. I'm more inclined to think this Bills offense is still the same one that was scoring 10.7 points per game in the first nine games. Its defense will keep it from getting out of hand, but the Jaguars won't find themselves in any danger during this game. Jaguars 27, Bills 14

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (Under 48)

The Vikings defense is good and had it not been for the Bears defense harassing Kirk Cousins into a number of mistakes last week, they probably beat the Bears. I don't want to take the Vikings, however, because the next time I trust Kirk Cousins to come through in a big game will be the first time. I mean, we're talking Cousins going against Aaron Rodgers here, which one do you believe in the most?

I'm more comfortable with the under. The Packers offense is averaging 27.8 points per game at home this year, but that number drops to 21.6 points per game on the road. That's a full touchdown worse. Minnesota has been the opposite of Green Bay, scoring fewer points at home (20.8) than on the road (28.0). Also, the under is 6-2 in their last eight meetings. I like that trend to continue on Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, stream on fuboTV, try for free). Vikings 24, Packers 21

SportsLine Bonus Pick

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers host the Cardinals this weekend and are currently favored by 12 points with the total set at 45. I have a play available for this game, but to read it you'll have to head over to my SportsLine page.

Last Week

2-1

Season

17-16