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Andy Reid is a great coach off the bye and now he's got months to work with when it comes to preparing for the Patriots. But that also means Bill Belichick had months to prepare, which is abjectly terrifying if you're a Chiefs fans. According to Oddshark.com, New England is 8-0 in its last eight games against the spread, but Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games. The Pats are the best team in football before football's been played, but the Chiefs keep this one close.
Pick: Chiefs +8.5
Credit: USATSI
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Nothing says "welcome back, football" quite like "let's hammer some divisional road chalk during Week 1 of the NFL season." But football is here and it's time to get weird. I personally love the Eagles this year and am picking them to win the NFC East, thanks in large part to a defensive line that I believe will exert its authority on Washington this week. The Redskins are still finding their groove on offense after an offseason of transition.
Pick: Eagles -1
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Two of the trendiest teams in the 2017 NFL offseason get to square off here in Nashville during Week 1. There is one major red flag: everyone is picking the Titans to win and to cover. When everyone thinks something, it is often wrong. Oakland would be considered a neutral site favorite, but the Titans are a much more physical team, especially on the offensive line, and stopping the run will be tough for the Raiders. Tennessee's defense is better than Oakland's. This could be a shootout.
Pick: Titans -1.5
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Just a big old pile of road chalk yes shoot it straight into my veins. Football is back and so is being able to wager on teams who are favored away from their home sites. This is a little bit of a bummer because the Cardinals are my Super Bowl team and I think they match up really well against the Lions ... but so does Vegas. It would be a lot cooler if they were not favored here.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5
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It's Tank-a-palooza 2017 and you are invited! Admission is actually free but totally nonrefundable. There is nothing to like about either of these teams for this season, except maybe LeSean McCoy in fantasy. The Bills should be a substantially better team, but the Jets have to keep it kind of close, right? Right?
Pick: Jets +8
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What an absurd run of road chalk we're getting here. The Bears are, quite understandably, not a popular team in real life, fantasy football or in Las Vegas. They signed Mike Glennon and drafted Mitchell Trubisky, have lost Cameron Meredith to the season, and weren't good last year. The Falcons just have to shake off the hangover of coughing up a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. Easier said than done.
Pick: Bears +7
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The Ravens have been the unluckiest preseason team we've seen in a long time, suffering a litany of injuries to critical players. Their defense should still be good thanks in large part to a dangerous front seven and a deep secondary. The Bengals have concerns of their own, with John Ross set to miss some games and Vontaze Burfict suspended. This is a grinder of a game that the Ravens could steal, but I like Cincy to hold serve at home with a dinged up Joe Flacco playing for the Ravens.
THE PICK: Bengals -3
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Were you hoping for a perfect storm of preseason action to set this game up as a lock? Good news, you're in luck. The Texans decided to start Tom Savage, which is a little terrifying, but should be fine considering he has a better grasp of Bill O'Brien's offense. The Jaguars are starting Blake Bortles which .. OK, sure, let's go. Maybe the Jags defense comes through here, but I'm not sure they can rush the passer that well.
Pick: Texans -5.5
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Another divisional game, another road favorite. This one should be no surprise given that the Steelers are one of the most popular picks to win the Super Bowl (T-2 for most money bet on them according to Bovada, behind only the Pats) while the Browns are, well, the Browns. But Cleveland is going to be frisky this year and DeShone Kizer will surprise. He gets a brutal AFC North test out of the gate and I think he passes. Or at least doesn't fail as badly as the line would have you believe..
Pick: Browns +8.5
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Hurricane Irma has caused the NFL to move it to Week 11. Might want to hold off on betting on it. Stay safe, everyone.
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The lack of Andrew Luck is becoming a terrifying reality for the Colts right now. He will not play in Week 1 as he recovers from shoulder surgery and as a result the line moved about 40 points (like eight, but still). Aaron Donald is also unlikely to play in this game, and that's the only reason not to love the Rams here. Scott Tolzien against Wade Phillips? Please.
Pick: Rams -5.5
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This line could not be any fishier. The Panthers are a Super Bowl contender and the 49ers are a contender for the top pick. And yet, the Panthers are "only" a 5.5-point favorite here. That means they would be roughly 12-point favorites at home, but still. I'm on the 49ers bandwagon this year in terms of them being frisky. I don't think they win but they keep it close.
Pick: 49ers +5.5
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The Seahawks officially entered the "terrifying" zone on defense when they acquired Sheldon Richardson over the weekend. And the Packers should be worried about Seattle's ability to minimize their offensive attack. This game is a highlight of the week and it could easily kickstart another "Is something wrong with Aaron Rodgers?" debate like last year. The guess here is it will not.
Pick: Packers -3
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The big news here is that Ezekiel Elliott will play in Week 1 for the Cowboys, thanks to the NFL deciding to kick the can down the road on his suspension. This line hasn't moved that much as a result of Zeke's status, but if it climbs up I like the Giants even more. They match up really well against the Cowboys, as we saw last year, and Dallas can't generate any pass rush against the bad New York offensive line.
Pick: Giants +3.5
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Never bet against spite. And Adrian Peterson will have plenty of spite going for him on Monday night when he returns home to Minnesota to play against the only other team he's played for during his illustrious NFL career. The Vikings have a stout defense but Peterson is otherworldly when angry and he will run for 200 yards against Minnesota in a winning effort for New Orleans.
Pick: Saints +3.5
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The immediate reaction to Philip Rivers having to drive 1 1/2 hours each way to work should be to think he will suffer badly for it on the field. But Rivers is rocking a $200,000 automobile that allows him to recline and study tape the whole time. So instead of moving his family and spending three hours a day dealing with eight kids he's riding in a souped up football study hall limo. Huge year coming for him.
Pick: Chargers +3.5
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