This line moved quickly -- the Seahawks were underdogs initially and now are getting almost the full home field advantage number. As they should, given how bad the Rams looked in Week 4. Chris Carson responded to a challenge in a big way, and I could see him having another nice night on Thursday. The Rams defense is licking its wounds after Tampa Bay came to town. Seattle will be hungry in a division-shifting game.
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Steelers (+3) vs. Ravens
Everyone is going to want to back Baltimore in this spot. They're the trendier team and we've seen a bunch of road teams win games outright. Mason Rudolph vs. Lamar Jackson doesn't seem fair. But the Steelers got something cooking with Jaylen Samuels on Monday night and he gives them a wildcat type of option to slow the game down and keep things close. Pittsburgh's D will be motivated here and the Steelers can hold serve at home and move to 2-3 after pulling off the upset.
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Bears (-4.5) vs. Raiders (London)
Look to your left. Do you see the No. 52 coming? Khalil Mack looks like an ACTUAL BEAR who is chasing after an unsuspecting Kirk Cousins. Poor Kirby. I don't get this line and I'm not going to pretend I should. The Bears are just 4.5 points better than the Raiders on a neutral field in a situation where Mack wants to extract revenge against Oakland? What am I missing here?? Give me Chicago, regardless of who is at quarterback.
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Bengals (-3.5) vs. Cardinals
This could be a sneaky shootout involving two bad defenses on Sunday. Everyone will be on the Cardinals too, after Cincy was embarrassed by the Steelers on Monday night. That image of Andy Dalton sadly loafing around Heinz Field, hoping time would just run out already, won't go away any time soon. The Cardinals have a pretty good pass rush, so that's a little concerning. But Arizona isn't a good football team and I'll be more than fine with buying low on the Bengals. Give me all the Auden Tate shares.
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Panthers (-3.5) vs. Jaguars
This will be billed as the Backup Bowl between Kyle Allen and Gardner Minshew, but I find the usage of Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette much more interesting. Both guys will be leaned on heavily in what should be a low-scoring game. CMC has been an MVP candidate through four weeks of the season and isn't showing signs of slowing down. Carolina's defense is sneaky great and will give Minshew enough problems that the Panthers win here handily.
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Vikings (-5.5) at Giants
Everyone will be looking for Dalvin Cook in this spot, but the sneaky factor working here is the Squeaky Wheel Game coming for Adam Thielen courtesy of Kirk Cousins. The Giants are actually decent at stopping the run (3.9 yards per carry allowed) but are just abysmal at stopping the pass (9.3 yards per pass allowed). I know Mike Zimmer won't want to throw the ball a ton because he's Mike Zimmer, but it's not hard to fathom the Vikings taking some play-action shots early. Rookie QBs are just 2-6 against Zimmer's defenses in Minnesota and quarterbacks under the age of 25 against Zimm's defenses are just 12-24 (non-division 8-18) since 2014.
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Patriots (-15.5) at Redskins
This is an absurd number, but I'm going Patriots here for a couple of reasons. One, there's a decent amount of history showing that when Tom Brady plays poorly, he bounces back angrily with a big game. Bill Belichick too. And the Pats weren't embarrassed against the Bills last week but they won't be happy. Washington can't defend itself. Two, I'm concerned Dwayne Haskins will play and a pick of the Redskins +15.5 will be blown to smithereens. I think this is actually a decent spot for a backdoor cover, but it could be 35-0 in a flash and Rex Burkhead running the ball 30 times in the second half. Brady has averaged more than 300 yards in four games against Washington in his career, with 10 touchdowns and five picks.
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Eagles (-13.5) vs. Jets
Philly didn't look perfect against the Packers last Thursday, but the Eagles are coming off 10 days of rest and playing a team in the Jets that likely will be without their quarterback (Sam Darnold, still recovering from mono). I don't see how the Jets move the ball against this Philly defensive front. I hate laying this many points. It's ridiculous. But the Eagles are better and will come to play in this game. Jordan Howard rumbles for a couple TDs.
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Saints (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers
This line is rancid. The Bucs look great! Bruce Arians fixed Jameis Winston! Didn't you see? Unfortunately I don't think the Rams are a great defense and I don't think Jameis plays well against good defenses. The Saints are a GREAT defense, led by the ever underrated Cameron Jordan. They can lock down this Bucs passing offense, especially with Sheldon Rankins back, since Tampa can't just swarm one player with double team chips they way they did with Aaron Donald.
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Texans (-5) vs. Falcons
I'm a little worried no one will want to back the Falcons here because they're not good and the idea of a short road dog scares me a little. But Houston isn't a good matchup for Atlanta right now. The Texans defense is getting after the quarterback and Matt Ryan has been sacked 10 times already this season. The Falcons also don't pressure the QB, which means I think we can see Deshaun Watson take some shots deep to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in this one as the Texans roll.
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Bills (+3) at Titans
Curious to see what happens with Josh Allen/Matt Barkley here and the move from Allen to Barkley (if Allen doesn't clear concussion protocol) could change my pick. But the Bills defense is a top-five defense in the league, easily. Marcus Mariota and Co. are going to struggle to move the ball against them. This is a low-scoring game no matter how it plays out, so give me the points and a still-underrated Bills team.
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Chargers (-6.5) vs. Broncos
This line makes it seem like Vegas is begging you to take the Chargers because they think the Broncos can keep it close. But I'm not sure how they can. The defense has been awful this year. Denver is 27th in DVOA and can't stop the run or the pass. Philip Rivers is missing some weapons but he's been locked in. And it's October now, which means the Chargers can stop loafing around. Denver just lost Bradley Chubb too. Melvin Gordon could have a big first game back here.
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Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Packers
The loss of Tyron Smith is deeply concerning for the Cowboys. He's their anchor on the offensive line. But having Ezekiel Elliott geared up against a Green Bay defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the run? That's a bad matchup for the Packers. Additionally no Davante Adams? That's going to create issues for a Green Bay passing game that just hasn't gotten rolling yet this year outside of early success last week.
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Chiefs (-11) vs. Colts
We didn't get the beautiful start to Patrick Mahomes' indoor NFL career we were hoping for on Sunday against the Lions, even though the Chiefs quarterback and presumptive quarter pole MVP still lit things up from a passing yards perspective. We'll get a bounce-back outside this week, with the Colts struggling to defend anyone this year and missing some key players. I think Indy can hang on defense but Mahomes should hang a number on them in this matchup.
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Browns (+3.5) at 49ers
San Francisco is coming off a bye and favored in this spot for a reason: the Niners are the No. 2 team in DVOA through two weeks. Stunning. I think Cleveland is starting to come around though. Three and a hook is just too much for this game. Give me Baker Mayfield in primetime to put up enough numbers that they stay within the 3.5. And don't sleep on the season Myles Garrett is having either.
