Green Bay had to hold off the Bengals at home last week and the Bears pulled a massive home upset against the Steelers, but also nearly did not get out of their own way at the end of the first half and again in overtime. The Bears are a different team on the road and despite Aaron Rodgers not having a ton of protection right now, he has the weapons to put a lowly Bears team away on a short-rest week.
The Pick: Packers -7
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Dolphins (+3) vs. Saints (London)
A second straight week with breakfast football! How exciting. This game is much less likely to be a blowout, although certainly the Saints can hang some numbers on just about anyone in the NFL. We saw that on Sunday against the Panthers. The Dolphins offense won't veer away from the run like the Panthers did, however, and Jay Ajayi is set for his first big running day of the season after being bottled up against the Jets.
The pick: Dolphins +3
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Rams (+8) vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys finally started to get the run game going against the Cardinals on Monday night, which I would reckon leads to a lot of people backing the Cowboys in this game. Give me the Rams and the points. Sammy Watkins has 10 days to clear the concussion protocol and as good as the Cowboys have looked on defense, there should be opportunities to make plays for this Rams offense against the Cowboys secondary.
The pick: Rams +8
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Titans (-1.5) at Texans
Road chalk in a divisional situation after the Texans managed to keep it close against the Patriots feels dangerous, but I'm just going with the better team here. The Titans rolled over the Seahawks defense in the second half last week and should be able to do the same against the Texans here. Mike Mularkey's offense looks impressively and surprisingly creative and DeMarco Murray is very much healthy.
The pick: Titans -1.5
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Jets (+3.5) vs. Jaguars
Zero reason to like the Jets here, even after a surprising Week 3 win against the Dolphins. They're still not a good team, even if they have graduated from tank factory to frisky underdog. Still, they are a home team getting points here and they have shown they will cover and the Jaguars are traveling back from London without a bye week in between. Gimme the home dog.
The pick: Jets +3.5
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Falcons (-8) vs. Bills
The Buffalo Bills could very well be 3-0 and the Atlanta Falcons could very well be 1-2 at this point. But both of the Falcons' close calls came on the road, and they thumped the Green Bay Packers at home. Buffalo is better defensively than we thought primarily because Sean McDermott is a coach on the rise. But the Bills won't slow down the Falcons and Julio Jones here.
The pick: Falcons -8
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Ravens (+3) vs. Steelers
Nothing about the Ravens would suggest to you they are ready to keep it close with the Steelers. They just lost 44-7 to the frigging Jaguars in London and will be coming back without a bye to face a dangerous division foe coming off a bad loss. But the Steelers-Ravens rivalry is too big a deal to be taking a road favorite in this situation. The Ravens will be angry and they will play the Steelers close. Give me the points.
The pick: Ravens +3
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Browns (+3) vs. Bengals
Another similar situation here for Cleveland -- they are a worse team coming off a much worse loss, but they are also 0-3 like the Bengals. Cincinnati is probably more desperate but the Browns need to win in a bad way. Give me the home team getting points in a divisional matchup.
The pick: Browns +3
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Panthers (+8.5) at Patriots
The Patriots struggled to beat the Texans at home in Week 3, but the Panthers struggled to even compete with the Saints at home in Week 3. Cam Newton threw three picks, two of which were just terrible. The Panthers defense could not pressure Drew Brees. But this is going to be Christian McCaffrey's breakout game, I'll randomly predict. Carolina keeps it close.
The pick: Panthers +8.5
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Giants (+3.5) at Buccaneers
Neither team had a great showing in Week 3, but Odell Beckham's return, even though it came with a urination-related touchdown celebration controversy, made a huge difference for the Giants offense. It's hard to imagine Eli Manning just rolling over and giving up on the season and this defense can cause some issues for Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense. Giants might not win but they can cover.
The pick: Giants +3.5
Credit: Bill Streicher / USA TODAY Sports
49ers (+7) at Cardinals
Classic grin and bear it game for anyone backing the 49ers here, because this is not a team with a lot of reasons to be confident they will handle their business in a road division game. On the other hand, Ezekiel Elliott found room running Monday night, so it's possible Carlos Hyde does as well. And the Cardinals, with their poor offensive line play and general struggles, probably should not be favored by seven points over anyone right now.
The pick: 49ers +7
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Broncos (-2.5) vs. Raiders
Seems like the public is going to be all over the Broncos here, and with good reason. The Raiders laid an egg offensively in Washington on Sunday night and the Broncos should be angry about losing to the Bills. The bigger reason is Denver defends at home well and presents a similar matchup in terms of cornerback vs. wide receiver that could very well cause problems for the Raiders. Broncos win in a close one and cover.
The pick: Broncos -2.5
Credit: Ron Chenoy / USA TODAY Sports
Colts (+13) at Seahawks
Another grin and bear it game here with the Colts and the points, because the Seahawks are now 1-2, probably very angry on defense and could easily take it all out on Jacoby Brissett and the Indy offense. But here's the thing: Seattle should not be favored by two touchdowns over anyone, not with that offensive line. Even against the Colts defense the Seahawks could struggle to run the ball well and if Doug Baldwin is limited, Indy can keep things close.
The pick: Colts +13
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Redskins (+6.5) at Chiefs
Kansas City has very much looked like the best team in football for the first three weeks of the season, so it's tough to give them an "overvalued" label. But the Redskins have played some good football recently, including an impressive effort against the Raiders. Josh Norman can keep creating chaos in the secondary and if Washington just doesn't let Kareem Hunt rip off a massive TD run, they'll stay within a touchdown of KC in this one.
