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This is a desperate Raiders team and desperation is a dangerous thing in the NFL. Also dangerous: taking a road favorite in a divisional game. The Raiders need this one badly and have weapons to compete, but even with the addition of NaVorro Bowman, they're severely lacking in terms of the defensive stoppers in the run game. Oakland ranks 29th in defensive DVOA and 21st in DVOA against the run. This is going to turn into a big outing for running back Kareem Hunt.
The Pick: Chiefs -3
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Hate coming out of the gate with a pair of road chalk picks here, but there is nothing you can do to keep me from fading the Browns at this point. It won't be one of my best bets, and this could be the game they steal, against a terrible Titans defense, with Tennessee coming off a short week with a gimpy quarterback. But the formula for Tennessee is simple: pound Derrick Henry 40 times and win big.
The Pick: Titans -5.5
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The Jaguars have a very interesting W-L-W-L-W-L track record so far this year and they're a first-place team technically. It's not difficult to imagine a low-scoring game here (although the over/under is kind of high at 44.5) where the Jags sneak something out. But after backing them last week I'm not taking them as a road favorite. Sorry. Jacoby Brissett is playing good football and the Colts can stop the Jaguars' run attack and make Blake Bortles beat them.
The Pick: Colts +3
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The NFL is upside down this year and potential outcomes change week to week. We know nothing. But there is no way that the Ravens are going on the road and taking care of business against this Vikings defense after being unable to beat the Bears at home with Chicago starting a rookie quarterback. Harrison Smith is going to pick at least one Joe Flacco pass and take it to the house.
The Pick: Vikings -5.5
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The first and second half of the Week 6 games for these respective teams probably made this a coin flip (Miami gets three points for homefield advantage). If the Jets beat the Patriots and the Dolphins get blasted by the Falcons, the Jets might be ... favored here? They're not, but maybe they should be -- they are a better overall team. I'm not sure they'll win in an ugly affair in South Florida but give me the points and Josh McCown, a thing he said that he will probably never regret.
The Pick: Jets +3
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On paper the Buccaneers have a much better team. But the Bills are a really well-coached squad playing above their head (they're still 3-2, lest you forget). Fortunately they have a two-week head start on the Bucs, who just got drubbed in Arizona and are dealing with an injured Jameis Winston. The Bucs defense might not be very good and with them coming into a second straight road game, Tyrod Taylor can do some damage.
The Pick: Bills -3
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The Panthers are a much better team than the Bears. But the Bears are not dead yet, even at 2-4, thanks to a weird division. And they have this mojo when they play at Soldier Field -- they beat the Steelers, should have beaten the Falcons and could have beaten the Vikings. They keep these games close. Carolina isn't scared to lose a game they should win on the road. Tarik Cohen and Mitchell Trubisky get their Carolina vengeance or something.
The Pick: Bears +3
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The loss of Aaron Rodgers, likely for the entirety of the season, just flipped the Packers on their head. Brett Hundley has three years in the system, but he didn't look sharp against the Vikings on Sunday in relief of Rodgers. We'll give him a pass and actually love the Packers in this spot, getting a ton of points and being counted out by everyone. The Saints are much improved but Green Bay can steal this one.
The Pick: Packers +6
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The rare night London game that will take place at 1 p.m. ET features a matchup of two NFC West teams in a serious battle for the division. The Rams are the sexy team du jour in the NFL thanks to Jared Goff emerging and Todd Gurley dominating. The Cardinals were left for dead until Adrian Peterson showed up and they looked great on Sunday. He can't do it forever, but he can do it one more week.
The Pick: Cardinals +3.5
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Not sure I'm buying that C.J. Beathard is the answer at quarterback, but I'll buy into him giving this offense a spark in the second half of the game against Washington. That's going to mean some film for the Cowboys, but they don't have many guys who can slow down the 49ers. Ezekiel Elliott should be running with new life and Arik Armstead being out is a dagger too. But the 49ers have kept things close this season and will do so again.
The Pick: 49ers +6
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Would normally like to take Cincy coming off a bye with the Steelers heading home after a massive win looking like a letdown team. But Andy Dalton stinks against the Steelers, having gone 3-9 in his career against them. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS against the Bengals since 2014. They just cover against Cincy and beat them by about a touchdown when the two teams play. Give me that trend all day.
The Pick: Steelers -5.5
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What we saw from the Giants on Sunday night was nothing more than a fluke, a desperate team that pulled it all together and managed to win a huge road game against a Broncos team that might be questionable. The Giants aren't going to do that every week, but this is a good spot for them against a Seahawks team traveling east, even if Seattle is coming off a bye. The same formula can win and/or keep it close.
The Pick: Giants +6
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It would probably be smart to hedge my love of the Chargers and take the Broncos here, hoping for a bounceback in a game where they are surprisingly not favored. Well, maybe it's not a surprise after Denver stunk the joint up against the Giants. The Chargers have a legitimate shot to insert themselves back into the wild-card conversation with a win here, which probably means a late-game dagger. Prep yourself. I'll pray Melvin Gordon gets loose again.
The Pick: Chargers -1.5
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You want to know something wild? The Patriots haven't been exactly 3-point favorites at home since 2010. That's incredible! They've also only been a 2.5-point to 4.5-point favorite at home twice since 2010, a 2013 game where they covered and a game last year where Tom Brady was suspended. You just don't get Bill Belichick as a home favorite of only a field goal very often. Hammertime.
The Pick: Patriots -3
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The Philadelphia Eagles might very well be the best team in all of football. Fletcher Cox terrifies me and he should terrify you. He should definitely terrify Kirk Cousins. But the Redskins have bodies on that offensive line and the sort of weapons that will allow them to play no-huddle/spread and limit the Eagles pass rush. Give me the dog here to keep it close, knowing I'll be hosed in the last 30 seconds of the game.
The Pick: Redskins +4.5
Credit: USATSI
